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Question about winning Probabilities Question about winning Probabilities

01-23-2008 , 04:06 AM
Hello everyone, Im new to this forum so please.. bear with me.. thanks..

I was just going over PokerStove today and stumbled across something vary interesting.. When I test to see how often an AA offsuit wins against 5 other people, it only wins 49% of the time out of 225,000 games, the other people having about a 10% chance to win. Now this normally would not surprise me, as anything less then 5 other people you would have the upper hand but when I came to think about somthing unique it really did.

I was thinking what if all of the people where stupid? Now I dont mean just stupid, I mean ******ed in there actions.. Say everyone was to simply go in with you everytime no matter what, to the very end without much regard to themselves.. you think you would like that hu..? Well, that might be your first reaction and until now I probably would have thought the same thing. But if you where to do that, you would lose the majority of the time, No Matter What. The reason for this is because if everyone just called you to the end like an idiot, always wanting to see their cards, you would lose in the long run plain and simple.. unless I am mistaken about something here..

If I am I would really like to know.. but it seems to be the correct answer.. Of course in reality this would basically never occur but nonetheless is something that puzzles me..

Thanks for any help you guys can offer on this, I'd appreciate it.
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01-23-2008 , 04:25 AM
simple. when you win (49% of the time), you win 5x your bet. When you lose (51%), you only lose 1x your bet.

.49(5) x .51(-1) = +1.94 bets/hand. You liking this deal better?
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01-23-2008 , 05:41 AM
Thanks for the reply, but it seems that I would still lose money..

From what I have been able to conclude I would indeed make many times more than a single person at that table, but in comparison to all of them I would still lose money in the long run, (Which is all that really matters to my bankroll). Obviously I do not want that to happen. From the best of my abilities, trying to understand what your trying to say, which I dont fully get; though I think I get the gist of it, I have come up with this equation.

I took a sample game of about 225,000 hands X their combined bet of 0.02 each for a toal of 0.10 each time + my bet for 0.02 and this is what I got.

27,000 dollors of which,

13,230 I win and,

13,770 they win (For a total of 2,754 each)

Conclusion.. I lose money in the end

Now if Im wrong about this I'd really like to know, but from the best of my abilities that seems to be the way it goes.

Again thanks for the reply and any help is appreciated.
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01-23-2008 , 05:47 AM
Sorry I am a bit confused about what you are saying here. If you mean going in with AA against 5 others and all 5 going with you till the end I doubt very much if you would win 49% of the time.
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01-23-2008 , 05:56 AM


Thanks again.
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01-23-2008 , 06:00 AM
Ok so its a long term loser. Sorry, but what is the point you are making. I am tired, so I may be missing the blindingly obvious.
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01-23-2008 , 06:11 AM
OK OK Sorry re-read your post after a cup of coffee. Refer to gedanken's post above.

Call it 50/50. All 6 of you having $100 each and all getting it in. When you win (50%) you get $600. When you lose (50%) you lose $100.

I'm off to bed now.
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01-23-2008 , 06:11 AM
Your joking right?

My apologies but the remarks you are making seem rather obtuse.

The reason being because MOST people would think that going in with the 5 other people or 6 or 7, would be A GOOD IDEA. Now clearly it is not from what I am understanding. If it was 1 or 2 people then obviously it would be smart to go in with them, but from this it seems it would not!

Thanks for your replies though they add little to the question.. anyone else up for it..?
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01-23-2008 , 06:12 AM
Post went right after yours.. lol..
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01-23-2008 , 06:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coro777
I took a sample game of about 225,000 hands X their combined bet of 0.02 each for a toal of 0.10 each time + my bet for 0.02 and this is what I got.

27,000 dollors of which,

13,230 I win and,

13,770 they win (For a total of 2,754 each)

Conclusion.. I lose money in the end
It only costs you 225000 * 0.02 = $4500 to play, so you win $13230 - $4500 = $8730 overall.

It costs your opponents the same to play each, so they each lose $2754 - $4500 = -$1746 overall.
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01-23-2008 , 06:18 AM
On average, you win 50% of all the cash that's in the pot. The pot contains 6 times your bet. So on average you win 3 times (50% of 6) your bet and you're making money.
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01-23-2008 , 06:22 AM
I think I get it now, thanks for clarifying it guys.
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01-23-2008 , 07:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by np_malcolm
On average, you win 50% of all the cash that's in the pot. The pot contains 6 times your bet. So on average you win 3 times (50% of 6) your bet and you're making money.
Not only do you win, you win much more on average (about 2.0 buy-ins) than if you were called by one player with a random hand (about 0.7 buy-ins).

Getting all-in with AA against 5 players is much safer than playing ordinary winning poker. If you can't handle this risk, you should not be in that game in the first place. In fact, you don't need many buy-ins (about 10 using Kelly fraction 1/3) to prefer facing 5 players instead of 1.
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