I was just reading a hand posted by Bostik where he explains why he posted from the cutoff and it made me realise that a lot of people probably never bothered to do the math about posting or not posting out of turn when they sit at a new table.

I don't know if any other post has ever been done on the subject, if so then sorry for the SPAM.

Now the question, is it ever a good play to post out of turn?
The blinds are basically the price we pay to play an orbit. Once we know that, figuring if it's ever a good move to post is a simple math problem.

I'll take a full 9 seat table as my example. This is a typical NL10 game and the blinds are $0.05/0.10. In this example we just sat and we are on the cutoff and are offered to post or to wait for the BB.

If we wait for the BB we are basically paying $0.15 to play 9 hands (a full orbit).
If we post from the cutoff we are paying $0.10 to play 6 hands (after 6 hands we'll have to pay the BB).

So waiting for the BB = a price of $0.0166 per hand played.
Posting from the cutoff = $0.0166 per hand played.

At a 10 seat table, posting from the cutoff actually becomes cheaper than waiting for the BB! At a table that is not full, posting from the cutoff becomes more expensive.

Of course with players sitting out and leaving the table at any time, we have no garantee of seeing the full 6 hands before having to pay a BB again, but at the same time we gain the advantage of playing more hands since we start earlier. For a winning player I think the tradeoff is good.

So basically, posting from the cutoff at a full table costs the exact same amount per hand as waiting for the big blind. Posting from any other seat will cost you more money and should be avoided.

wat?

When you post from the cutoff, you pay 1BB to play the next 6 hands. If you wait for the BB to start playing you will pay 1.5BB to play 9 hands. The cost per hand is the exact same, hence if you sit at the cutoff seat when you come to a new table, there is not reason to wait for the BB to start playing.

good post, thanks for the info. I personally never post OOP even if I'm in the CO, but I will start doing so especially since I play on 10 handed tables. Thanks

That sounds right to me, never actually thought of it like that.
Does anyone see anything wrong with this?

One other thing I would add is that if you post in the CO you have more chance of getting position should you play, also if its folded to you then stealing is even more +EV than usual since there is more dead money and you have to raise less.

Also, you should have a positive expectation for the hands you are playing so your EV of playing those 6 hands should be +$Xbb whereas the EV of waiting is $0.

Edit - On the other hand in terms of "getting positon" you miss your button when you post in the CO so thats bad.
Overall though I think your point is valid and posting in the CO isnt bad at all.

If you posted in the cutoff, I think you're more likely to see a raise from the HJ.
You're also liable to get a lot less respect for a raise after having posted from the CO. This, however, can be a good thing, I suppose.

Anyway, nice post. Never thought of it that way.

I personally like to wait because i am loading up tables and this makes it easier for me.

Logic's good, but you miss your button. It's about even EV posting from the CO imo; depends on if you want to get right in, or if you are still loading up tables. Also if you want to watch an orbit before playing to get a feel for who's who, and let your HUD start up.

when i enter a FR game and i am given the opportunity to post from the CO i will do so. ncaron pointed out, that the price is right.

but still i would like to add, that not every hand has the same value.
the best position in an orbit is the button. thats where we will play a ton of hands, make the most profit etc.

and this is exactly the position we will leave out...

maybe its better to wait for the blinds, watch the game and pick up some reads before getting involved.

Sure you miss your button, but you get to play 6 more hands. If I check my position stats in PT, every seat is profitable (except the blinds). So playings these 6 extra hands, in my opinion, make it worth it to post from the CO.

sorry, hackers and i must have written this simultaneously.

he was faster - anyway ...

Meh, i'd wait for two reasons.

1) When i see people post, its extra money to blind steal so i do it with more holdings from more positions. If i post, i can imagine it will also be raised preflop more often than normal, meaning that you're not going to see a flop all that often - hance the position benifit doesn't mean much (thats assuming its not a hand you would normally play, in which case it doesn't matter)

2) The three extra seats you are buying by posting on the BB instead (BB, SB and BTN) are the most profitable seats at the table. Check PT, after posting your blind (look at difference without blind) your blinds and your button will be among your top few positions. Your button or your BB should be top.
Basically, each seat is not equal.

It would only be more profitable for you (i think) if you ran at greater than 5ptbb/100, then each hand you are dealt is profitable enough to make up for the loss that you suffer from not having your best positions.

(Not sure on the last paragraph - i'm remembering it coming from a similar discussion between bottomset and someone else (possibly RyanCMU( a year ago)

good analysis, and the math is good, but sometimes it just a feel thing. If I am loading up, just starting, etc. Then its more important for me to get settle in and concentrated than get in as soon as possible. Othertimes you switch tables, and the game is super juicy, and posting from HJ or MP+1 is not bad if the potential is good.

Valid, but dont we want to play in position in a raised pot with a read that the PFR isnt as strong as usual?

I see what you are saying there but.....
The choice isnt between posting in the CO and posting in the BB (you post that BB anyway).
The choice is between posting in the CO and not posting, either choosing the EV of posting or the EV of not posting (which is 0). Therefore if those 6 hands including the post are +EV then we should post.

I do agree that its meh though, probably depends on how busy you are getting tables set up and stuff.

ok, put it this way, the average of the 9 positions in terms of +EV after posting, will be higher than the average of the 6 positions if you post in the cutoff. Thats basically what i'm saying with point two.

In terms of $$ per hand though there is no difference

Lots of good points above. However, I think the analysis is flawed in thinking that you are paying a set fee for each position around the table. It is more like, "you have to buy this swamp in FL, but if you do, I'll give you for free some land in Manhattan." By far, the most valuable real estate in poker is the button. Look at chargers in 07's stats in the Official Stats and Graphs Analysis sticky. Nearly half of his net profit ($4425 of a total of $8960) comes from the button. To give that up is a significant disadvantage.

Beyond that, seeing how the table is performing is always an advantage. I might have stats on a player showing him as a TAG, but if he's in 4 of the next 6 pots, he could be drunk tonight and an easier mark.

I don't think it is a major mistake to post early in the CO, but there is no real advantage to do so. I'll do it myself at times when some donk pays the BB, then leaves the table when I'm next for the BB, forcing me to wait another circle. However, I'm not patient enough to wait at a table 10 minutes before starting. Others probably have that patience.

Being the person whose post originally incited this thread, perhaps I should elaborate a bit why I may choose to post from CO.

Basically, I use the same rule of thumb as Sammy: I only post if the table is juicy enough. I miss the button, but I have a good position on my first two hands nonetheless. I also play only a few tables at a time, so my time to set up the session is considerably less than for the more seasoned multi-tablers.

This gives me an opportunity to observe the table during those few hands when the button travels my way. I have time to check up stats from software for the relevant stacks and then decide whether I want to post out of turn or not. Most of the time I don't. The tables are generally not interesting enough. So my reason for posting at CO is that I get to play sooner with the donors before they manage to spew their money to the other players already sitting there.

In effect I'm investing 1BB for 5-6 extra opportunities to get my share from a lucrative donkey.

100% Correct but......

- Forget about the button
- Forget about the BB and SB
- Forget about average bb/hand divided by whatever.

Doesnt this all come down to 1 question:
You have a choice between paying 1bb for the next 6 hands of poker
1 x CO
1 x HJ
1 x MP2
1 x MP1
1 x UTG +1
1 x UTG
or to pay nothing and wait for the bb.

The choice does not affect any other choices you can make later.
IF your expected value of those 6 positions is greater than 1bb then you should post.
IF it is NOT then you should not post but wait until the BB (assuming thats +EV, if not you shouldnt post at all)

So we need to make 1bb back on the next six hands, thats 0.166bb per hand.
Therefore if our average winrate in those 6 positions is 0.166bb (big blinds) per hand then we should post.

Does that make sense?
I have no PT here so I have no idea how everage bb/hand is spread out (allowing for the blinds being a net loss usually). My guess is that 8ptbb/100 (Big Bets) is probably more than my winrate in those positions.

For the curious, I just did some SQL magic to get the number of times I have actually posted without waiting.

During 23k hands, and ~300 sessions, I have posted out of turn 36 times. Since I play no more than 3 tables at once, in one session with table selection I sit down to maybe 6-7 tables average. Let's say 5 to be conservative and account for my earlier 2-tabling.

1500 sitdowns, out of which there are 36 CO posts. That's just 2.4%, so by my quick calculations, one table out of 40 has looked good enough to warrant an extra blind to play earlier.

Yeh SS, that sounds similar to the conclusion we came to a year ago. You need a pretty high winrate to make posting in the CO profitable, and you explained it a lot better than i did. I think it came out to be around 5-6ptbb/100 was breakeven.

SS Eggpie, and Bostik, I think we are all saying roughly the same thing. Under normal circumstances, it isn't profitable to post out of turn. However, I agree there may be circumstances that where it could be profitable.

Haha so I'm only a year behind - sounds about right!

I think your overall ptbb/100 isnt so relevant. Its the ptbb/100 in these 6 positions.

My overall lifetime winrate CO-UTG = 4.3ptbb/100

That sounds OK and consider that my overall winrate is a paltry 1.5ptbb/100 (but I suck hardcore from the blinds)
Now that wont be the same for everyone but Id expect a higher overall winrate to have a higher CO-UTG winrate.
Of course it will be different for different styles - you could be fantasic in the blinds and average in CO-UTG or horrible from the blinds but superb CO-UTG.

A quick look through my database (solid datamined samples) show that overall winrate isnt a reliable indicator of CO-UTG winrate.
I only looked at half a dozen winning players but they all should be posting in the CO - I should not!

OK, so now I'm trying to get my head around "is this even important in terms of overall winrate".

For simplicity lets make an assumption that on average we will play 100 hands at every table we sit at (I know that's maybe on the high side but meh)

An Example:
If we run at 12ptbb/100 in CO-UTG (not as hard as it sounds for a winning player) then we win 0.72bb/100 over 6 hands on average - that's 1.44bb.*

(1.4bb) - (Our 1bb Post) = 0.4bb
0.4bb = 0.2ptbb/100

So a 0.2ptbb/100 gain?
Not quite - for every 100 hands we will end up seated in BB/SB/Button/CO 4 in 9 times**. The times we sit in other spots we don't have this +EV option.
Therefore for a "12ptbb/100 CO-UTG" winning player posting in the CO will add ~0.09ptbb/100 to your winrate


Someone might want to check those numbers and theory since I just spewed that off the top of my head.
Also I agree with what others have been saying - your average WR CO-UTG is usefull as a guide but if you have postition on a fish for 6 hands it may make posting fine even if your average WR says its -EV.

Furthermore I'm not sure how to account for the hand you play in the CO, there is an extra 1bb of dead money and I think its not that bad a spot to be in, so you may do a fraction better than in a normal orbit.
*Anyone confused by the maths - remember the whole bb & ptbb/100 thing.
** Actually that may be more weighted to the BB since a lot of players sit out at the blinds, therefore we are seated there more often.