Quote:
Originally Posted by SGspecial
Hey guys, thanks for reading my email (#7) on the show about baseball batters striking out looking on 0-2 and 1-2 counts tilting me.
As a baseball guy but a decidedly non-traditional one, I enjoyed that question and the discussion that ensued.
Adam definitely hit on one part: pitchers often "waste" a pitch on an 0-2 count, so in general, it will be the least hittable thing at which to swing. Taking an 0-2 pitch is usually a good idea.
That said, wasting a pitch often means a curve that will drop below the strike zone, or a slider that explodes out of it (away from a like-handed batter, in on an opposite-handed batter). So these pitches will still sometimes catch the strike zone, anyway. At that level, pitchers know how to "miss close," which can result in an accidental strike.
Striking out looking on a 1-2 seems much worse, as that's usually the count when the pitcher comes back into the zone. Of course, the batter still has to know what pitch and where. This is part where "baseball is hard" is ultimately the best explanation.
I also agree with Ross about how often batters take the 3-0. Sure, it probably correct to do so in many, if not most, situations. But I hate that it's pretty much automatic. The 3-0 pitch will often be the
most hittable pitch a batter sees all day. So take the occasional hack to keep the pitcher honest. In turn, the pitcher will not likely groove a fastball down the heart of the strike zone, and your chances of drawing the walk will go up. But as is, it has to be the single least balanced range in all of sport.
As for Terrence's GTO comment, I threw a fist in the air at this, because I'd love for pitchers and catchers to take up poker just for this reason. Against some poker opponents, an exploitable strategy is more profitable, because they won't adjust for it. Against other opponents, you'd better be as close to GTO as possible because they'll pick up on your tendencies.
Baseball works the same way. Even at the highest levels, there are some batters to whom you can throw high fastballs because they'll never catch up to it well enough to hurt you. (Or maybe you just throw a pitch so well that a batter can't hit it even when they know it's coming. See also Rivera, Mariano.) On the other hand, there are batters where you'd better mix up your pitches as well as you can, because they are good enough to exploit any pattern.
For perhaps the most famous example of a tendency being exploited, look no farther than Kirk Gibson's famous home run off Dennis Eckersley back in the 1988 World Series. The scouting report on Eck was that he
always threw a backdoor slider to left-handed batters on that first 3-2 count. Apparently, it was so reliable that you could damn near calibrate your instruments with it. This was the baseball equivalent of Teddy KGB chomping Oreos.
Gibby worked his way to a 3-2 count, then read the next pitch perfectly. If you watch the video, you can see him dart out toward the outside corner of the plate. He knew the velocity, movement and location of the very next pitch – i.e. the three characteristics of a pitch. Add that up, and some fan in the bleachers is bound to receive a souvenir.