I'm in a season long NFL pick'em pool where if the Falcons lose & the Pats win, I win. If the Falcons win, I lose. If the Falcons lose & the Pats lose, I lose.
I'm trying to figure out how to maximize my payout while also guaranteeing a positive payout in all scenarios. I'm struggling with the math behind it so figured I'd start here...maybe this would make for a good discussion & explanation on the show as part of the Math topic of the week? Or as another chapter in DUCY?
Here are the details...
- Pool buy-in was $50 with 10 players so I stand to win $450 (plus initial buy in)
- Atlanta to win straight up is currently about -195
- Parlay for Atlanta to lose and the Pats to lose is about +675
Is this the right way to be modeling this out? And if so, how can I figure out the optimal bets for #2 & #3 (in yellow below)? Finally, since the straight up bet for Atlanta is so low I'm considering not placing it...if I do that, what's the optimal bet for just #3?
- Amt = The bet size
- Win = What the total payout (bet + wining amount) would be if that scenario won
- Net Win = Win less Total amount of all 3 bets