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Old 01-17-2017, 09:38 PM   #1
stankpup
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Maximizing Payout in an NFL Pick'em League

I'm in a season long NFL pick'em pool where if the Falcons lose & the Pats win, I win. If the Falcons win, I lose. If the Falcons lose & the Pats lose, I lose.

I'm trying to figure out how to maximize my payout while also guaranteeing a positive payout in all scenarios. I'm struggling with the math behind it so figured I'd start here...maybe this would make for a good discussion & explanation on the show as part of the Math topic of the week? Or as another chapter in DUCY?

Here are the details...
  1. Pool buy-in was $50 with 10 players so I stand to win $450 (plus initial buy in)
  2. Atlanta to win straight up is currently about -195
  3. Parlay for Atlanta to lose and the Pats to lose is about +675

Is this the right way to be modeling this out? And if so, how can I figure out the optimal bets for #2 & #3 (in yellow below)? Finally, since the straight up bet for Atlanta is so low I'm considering not placing it...if I do that, what's the optimal bet for just #3?



FYI:
- Amt = The bet size
- Win = What the total payout (bet + wining amount) would be if that scenario won
- Net Win = Win less Total amount of all 3 bets
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Old 01-18-2017, 07:21 PM   #2
AdamSchwartz
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Re: Maximizing Payout in an NFL Pick'em League

I'm of the firm belief that hedging sports bets is a bad idea, unless it's for a life changing amount of money.

Most of the time you just end up paying more juice.
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Old 01-18-2017, 10:00 PM   #3
stankpup
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Re: Maximizing Payout in an NFL Pick'em League

Fair enough...out of curiosity, outside of the extra juice any other reason to avoid hedging?
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Old 01-19-2017, 12:32 PM   #4
Doozie350
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Re: Maximizing Payout in an NFL Pick'em League

So you can win more than ~200. If the min win isn't life changing then yolo
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Old 01-22-2017, 08:42 PM   #5
PeteBlow
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Re: Maximizing Payout in an NFL Pick'em League

That went well...
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Old 01-25-2017, 10:10 PM   #6
stankpup
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Re: Maximizing Payout in an NFL Pick'em League

Adam & Co - I ended up taking your advice and not hedging and the Falcons ended up blowing out the Packers so no payday. I didn't care as much as I thought I would to be honest so appreciate the advice to just let it ride (as it's far from life changing $$).

I agree in the podcast that if you're doing a parlay I wouldn't hedge the last game...what felt different in this case was that being Fantasy, there was really one game that was going to decide it and I had the heavy underdog in it.

I wonder if a better analogy would have been me heads up facing a chip deficit, in which case I would have been better off trying to make a deal with the other guy I was up against (if I did want to ensure winning something).
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