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Whats the most buyins below all-in EV you have been. Whats the most buyins below all-in EV you have been.

01-21-2010 , 04:03 PM
poetry.
01-21-2010 , 04:16 PM
I try.
01-22-2010 , 11:39 AM
/thread
02-16-2014 , 11:01 PM
I'm 6 buy ins under ev this month
02-17-2014 , 02:20 PM
All in EV is a better predictor of your expected winrate than your observed winrate is.
02-17-2014 , 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by K.O.S.
Re-reading that barely made sense to me, so I'll say it a different way using the AA/KK example...
  • Every time you get KK or AA, you get all in. Our EV is 0.81x + 0.19(1-x), which is a break-even play.
  • Every time your buddy gets AA, he gets all in as an 81% favorite. Every time he gets KK, he just calls down. His EV is 0.81x + 0.19(0), or 0.81x.
Both plays result in the same thing (AA getting all in against KK, and vice versa), and both have the same expectation, but one looks worse in the EV graph.
If you win more than your share of [AA, KK] v [AA, KK], one strategy will make make your EV line higher, but if you lose more than your share, that same strategy will make your EV line worse than it would have been. I must be missing your point.

The more likely you are to get all in before the river, the more likely your EV line will deviate from your earnings line.
02-17-2014 , 05:44 PM
i ran about 150 buyins below ev in 2011. but i ran about $1k above ev last year so it basically evens out
02-18-2014 , 10:56 AM
20 about 3 months ago
02-19-2014 , 03:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Muffin Man
If you win more than your share of [AA, KK] v [AA, KK], one strategy will make make your EV line higher, but if you lose more than your share, that same strategy will make your EV line worse than it would have been. I must be missing your point.

The more likely you are to get all in before the river, the more likely your EV line will deviate from your earnings line.
I don't think we're disagreeing, are we? Back in 2010 when I posted this, I was saying that, because the AIEV line doesn't incorporate every single hand you ever play, it's never going to be a completely accurate representation of how you run (i.e. you could be below AIEV but also be coolering people 10x more often than you would expect to, meaning you're running good overall). Your playing style dictates what hands you get AIPR (all-in pre-river) with, so it's naturally going to skew the results. The cards have no knowledge of when your final BB is going into the pot, but that's the only thing your AIEV graph cares about.

To use another extreme example: say you play 100K hands and are running at exactly your expected AIEV. Then, you delete your top 50 "lucky suckouts" from your database. Your AIEV graph will now say you're running way below EV because you've removed 50 hands where you ran above EV, right?

Now, instead of deleting these hands, assume they're back in your database, but you left 1 BB in your stack until the river on each hand, then bet it after the river. The hands are still there, they were essentially played the same way, and your monetary results are exactly the same, but none of these 50 hands are showing up on your AIEV graph since they weren't AIPR. Your graph is going to say you're running below EV...but you're still running exactly the same as before. You've changed the way merely 0.0005% of your database's hands are designated, yet you're now running 75 BI below AIEV (assuming 25% equity on these suckouts in 200 BB pots, that's 150 "extra" BBs 50 times).

Last edited by K.O.S.; 02-19-2014 at 04:10 AM. Reason: tweaking of my rambling, incoherent thoughts
02-19-2014 , 07:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by d_smith77
i ran about 150 buyins below ev in 2011. but i ran about $1k above ev last year so it basically evens out


When i run below ev so horrendously i feel dirty and cheap when i run above
02-19-2014 , 03:05 PM
Lol KOS, I didn't realize I was responding to a post from 4 years ago.

Yes, all in EV does not give us the whole picture and sometimes our observed winrate may be closer to our expected winrate than our AIEV winrate is.
02-19-2014 , 10:06 PM
Every time a shorty raises to eft all in with like 1bb left you gotta flat it up with your 88 and call off those AKJtt boards. its a great result when they hold teh 66

Spoiler:
02-26-2014 , 10:10 PM
200 in 2010
02-27-2014 , 02:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justDgmt
200 in 2010
can we pls be friends my lovely?

Spoiler:
03-01-2014 , 01:58 AM
3-4

      
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