Quote:
Originally Posted by The Muffin Man
If you win more than your share of [AA, KK] v [AA, KK], one strategy will make make your EV line higher, but if you lose more than your share, that same strategy will make your EV line worse than it would have been. I must be missing your point.
The more likely you are to get all in before the river, the more likely your EV line will deviate from your earnings line.
I don't think we're disagreeing, are we? Back in 2010 when I posted this, I was saying that, because the AIEV line doesn't incorporate every single hand you ever play, it's never going to be a completely accurate representation of how you run (i.e. you could be below AIEV but also be coolering people 10x more often than you would expect to, meaning you're running good overall). Your playing style dictates what hands you get AIPR (all-in pre-river) with, so it's naturally going to skew the results. The cards have no knowledge of when your final BB is going into the pot, but that's the only thing your AIEV graph cares about.
To use another extreme example: say you play 100K hands and are running at exactly your expected AIEV. Then, you delete your top 50 "lucky suckouts" from your database. Your AIEV graph will now say you're running
way below EV because you've removed 50 hands where you ran above EV, right?
Now, instead of deleting these hands, assume they're back in your database, but you left 1 BB in your stack until the river on each hand, then bet it after the river. The hands are still there, they were essentially played the same way, and your monetary results are
exactly the same, but none of these 50 hands are showing up on your AIEV graph since they weren't AIPR. Your graph is going to say you're running below EV...but you're still running
exactly the same as before. You've changed the way merely 0.0005% of your database's hands are designated, yet you're now running 75 BI below AIEV (assuming 25% equity on these suckouts in 200 BB pots, that's 150 "extra" BBs 50 times).
Last edited by K.O.S.; 02-19-2014 at 04:10 AM.
Reason: tweaking of my rambling, incoherent thoughts