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Turning QQ into a bluff on a 4 flush river Turning QQ into a bluff on a 4 flush river
View Poll Results: Is shoving all-in on the river a good idea?
It is a spew
0 0%
It is marginal
1 100.00%
It is profitable
0 0%

08-23-2015 , 04:03 AM
200nl effective stacks are about 140ish BBs

EP player makes it $4. He plays a 27/3 game.
I'm in MP with Q Q and call
SB unknown calls
BB unknown calls too

Flop($16) Q 7 K
SB bets $10
BB calls
EP player folds
I call

Turn($43.45) Q 7 K 5
SB checks
BB bets $10.86
I call
SB folds

River($64.72) Q 7 K 5 6
BB checks
Me???

I don't think a lot of people would take this sort of line with an A. I think the turn sizing is usually bigger and the river is usually bet at. I'm thinking he might have J, T, or 9 willing to call a 1/2 or 2/3 bet on the river. Would it be able to stand the heat of an all-in though?

My perceived range would likely be KQ, QQ, 77 and flushes by the river. If I shoved all-in it would definitely look like an ace high flush and might be hard to see me do that with 3 of a kind just, because most people would probably check it back.

However an all-in bluff would need to succeed 80% of the time in order to be successful. Also he did give me the perfect odds to draw to a fullhouse on the turn so it wouldn't be unreasonable for an opponent to do this to trap me with an A themselves. I did check the turn too. For these reasons I ended up not bluffing all-in.

Last edited by TheGodson; 08-23-2015 at 04:09 AM.
08-26-2015 , 09:41 AM
I think he had the Ah trying to trap you on the river, he would have put some sort of bet in on the river with 9,10, J h

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08-27-2015 , 02:21 PM
I think people are more likely to c/c that turn with a middling heart than bet, so I wouldn't expect too many 9h/Th type stuff. Maybe some Jh but even those might c/c. I also agree that I doubt Ah is checking here.

I'd just check back and assume he's not gonna have many hearts taking this line. If he does have a heart its probably some garbage low heart.

      
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