I'd love to hear some thoughts on a spot I was in this week.
3-5 live NLHE, many deep stacks.
I'm in SB with AKo. I'm likely the tightest player at the table. $850 stack
UTG (average player, $500 behind) raises to $20, typical open in this game.
Aggro MP player raises to $50 ($1500 behind)
Tricking thinking player (knows me well, $1200 behind) on button cold calls $50
SB (hero) flats.
BB (tight player, also knows me well, $1200 behind) flats.
Pot is $250
Flop AdKdJd.
I lead out for $200. BB tanks and raises to $500. UTG folds, MP folds, Button tanks, shows hand to other end of table, folds. Action on me. Pot is $950 and $300 to me and I have $600 behind. No way BB is folding if I shove. Thoughts? Thanks in advance.

Can you make it less than $200 on the flop perhaps?

BB is a tight player so let's assume he's not bluffing. Would he raise here with AJ, unlikely? What about AxQd? Does he ever have anything other than QTs, JJ or dd?

I would guess JJ, but I'm a nit and raises scare me.

Knowing the player pretty well, prior to the flop raise I would have thought JJ, TT, 99, and maybe QQ were in her range, also AK, AQ, and maybe some big suited broadway cards. Very small chance of medium connected diamonds. AA and KK highly unlikely. The only QT I thought might have gotten there was QTss. Thus a small chance of a flopped straight or flush, a reasonable chance of a set of jacks, a small chance of top pair plus NFD, and a small chance of another AK.

I was really worried about JJ. Overall, I'm at best about 50/50 or I'm crushed already.

I could have made it less, but I wanted to bet close to pot or even more than pot to discourage draws calling. I think there is very little chance the bet is a bluff unless a combo draw (which has nearly 50% equity against my hand). I think AxQd is a def possibility, AJ and KJ unlikely to call pre. Ditto most suited diamonds (taking away those that flopped). AK while combinatorially unlikely is also possible.

I would fold AK in this spot. 2 pairs are likely beaten by a set. At best you are facing a hand with lots of draws.

bump it up, gii pre

Since the conversation died off, here is the result.

I open folded my AK after a bit of a tank. The raiser asks me if I want to see her hand (oh crap). She also shows AK.

Basically I showed up with the bottom of my donk betting range there, and the raiser had the bottom of her raising range as well. Puke.