villain 19/14/4.5 fold to raised cbet 40% out of 5

Is this line fine to take if we bluff raise some Ax flops and is my error just in shoving river, do we expect regs to call with AQ as i dont think i rep much?

Poker Stars $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $261.07
UTG+1: $224.32
Hero (UTG+2): $208.00
MP1: $200.00
MP2: $144.20
CO: $159.20
BTN: $200.00
SB: $203.27
BB: $113.02

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG+2 with A K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $6, Hero calls $6, 6 folds

Flop: ($15.00) 8 A 8 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $10.00, Hero raises to $28, UTG+1 calls $18

Turn: ($71.00) 2 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $40.00, UTG+1 calls $40

River: ($151.00) 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $134.00, UTG+1 calls $134

does depend on your image imo, but i like it. interested in what others think though

prefer it on 2 spade flop tbh. 200 NL hoola hoopers would never fold Ax s that line.

imo just because you raise this flop with air does NOT mean you have to raise it with AK. that's going about balance the wrong way if you ask me. sure, this may become our best line after some history, of say, him b/3b'ing w/ air and that's the way to get the most money out of him, but until then with no history, all you have is a few generic stats, so call flop. as played, bet river smaller.

why bet river smaller? Are we ever folding to a raise? Do we expect villain to be elastic with calling range? I think players going into "call down mode" just are not very elastic and will either fold or call cause they already decided to go call call call to river before they ever saw the sizing. This is actually making me re-think my own play. When i "decide to go into x/c or call down mode i very rarely change my mind based on sizing and that just HAS to be leaky.

I think this line is super smart really. People are going to think that looks like a random steal attempt on the flop (cause it prolly will be a lot of the time, hence the balance part) so i can see some decent regs going into call down mode with big AX's. You're gonna get stacked by improbable BDF and 8x any way you play river, no? Might as well max value on what could surely look like an aggro bluff line.

I like the play and the sizing. Honestly, i could see myself falling for this with AQ.. hate to admit it but i think i might honestly think the way OP thinks the opponent thinks...I think.

Hero calling is being done more and more liberally and often due to influx in multi-barell bluff lines right? This looks like a pretty good way to take advantage of that/those trends.

you aren't making him fold a chop so nh

I'd make turn bigger

pretty bad flop raise

I think it would be pretty horrible for villain to call river shove with AQ (though that does not mean that some won't). Also not a fan of flop raise