so here villian is a 17/13/2 with a steal on the button of 30 a fold to 3bets of 50 and a 4bet of 25% and a 4bet range of 3.5% over 1k hands i think he sees me as a aggressive reg who can 3 a lot to resteal on the blinds .... and i had a note on him that he had 4betted me to that exact amount several times before i though he was exploiting me

so i though this was a really good oportunity to apply the 5bet bluff
as far as i know and i might be wrong the 5bet bluff have to work just 51% of the time in order to be profitable (opponent have to fold 51% to my 5bet bluff)

what do you guys think of the line ? if someone good at math can post the correct math that should be applied here it would be greatly appreciated





Full Tilt $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 233119
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $233.05
BTN: $37.00
SB: $201.00
Hero (BB): $226.00
UTG: $68.15
UTG+1: $386.10
MP1: $197.45
MP2: $475.65

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with 8 6
6 folds, SB raises to $7, Hero raises to $24, SB raises to $50, Hero raises to $226

5betting/4betting light is like the last thing people want to discuss about their game, so its pretty much something you're gonna have to figure out on your own


still ill say this : good play
against a monkey like the one you describe, dont make the mistake of 3b/folding. just call preflop, or 3b with the intent of shoving to a 4bet.

this is what i got

0 = XP + (1-X)(-LV + WH) [from dailyvariance.com]
where X is breakeven FE, L is maximum loss, V is villain's equity, H is hero's equity, W is maximum gain

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.582% 71.38% 00.20% 195571384 540882.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 28.418% 28.22% 00.20% 77315492 540882.00 { 86s }

0 = 77X + (1-X)(-177(.716) + 228(.284))
0 = 77X + (1-X)(-126.7 + 64.8)
0 = 77X + (1-X)(-62)
0 = 77X - 62 + 62X
139X = 62
X = .47

villain has to fold 47% of the time or more?

that can't be right.. right?

Yeah it will be.

Haven't gone through the maths you've done above but I've been looking into this a bit lately and the figures you've posted for equity and the required FE kinda tie in with what I know.

I did the same calculations myself when I was at 50NL and I was shocked

After that I started 5bet shoving waaaaay too much

Anyway I like this.

I'd rather we just ended this thread right now

Expert play. Everybody should 5bet light more

yeah i mean its fine you have as good of equity against an overpair with a hand like 86s over anything else. and when called its prob good for your image and youll start getting looked up lighter on ur 5shoves

Everything posted in this thread has been entirely wrong. AVERT YOUR EYES, READERS, THE WRONGNESS WILL IRREPARABLY DAMAGE YOUR POKER GAME!!! For the safety of all, kill thread now plz mods, gogogogogogogogogo!

+1

If you're worried about the info in this thread, you're doing it wrong.

situation seems fine but lets go ahead and get some card removal + equity before we start shipping.

Oh an you should pay attention to which players will flat wider here. If he's one of them then his 4 betting range should contain a lot more bluffs and marginal showdownable hands like 88 or AK, assuming he's not balancing/adjusting his frequencies properly, which guys like this never do.

you can't get both card removal and equity.

card removal would imply a hand like QK, Ax, Kx, KJ, all of which play horribly to a stack off range with the exception of AXs.

as far as equity, the best (bluff) hands to shove are of course pairs, suited aces, SC's.