[QUOTE=riksanchez;33608957]betting the turn because i think we're good pretty much 100% on the flop after this action, and we want to get value from worse J's, 99, TT and possibly FD's.
ME: I agree we're good a very high % of the time on the flop. On the turn we still beat most of villains range but I'm not sure thats a good enough reason to bet.
If villain has JX
, I think he calls one more time either now or on the river and it prolly doesnt matter which street I bet.
If villain has FD
we can definately value bet, but that's only one possibility, and since we have XdXd and there are two
's on the board I dont think its super likely he's got diamonds. Even if he does, checking isn't terrible; it may give him the nerve to bluff when he misses and we likley stack him on most riv diamond either way.
If villain has PP
: he maybe calls one more bet but more likely on the riv then on the turn, IMO.(of course its always POSSIBLE to get 3 streets called with TTish, but unlikely, and there are cards that can peel the riv that make it harder to get vbet paid but those are gonna be cards villain is most likely to turn his hand into a bluff on.)
IF villain has KJ
:OK, definately want to bet turn vs KJ.
And, this is BIG: We NEVER fold out better hands
. Can AA or KK find the fold button? 2 pair? set? I don't see it at all. I don't even think we fold out AJo that would usually (not always) split the pot.
If he shoves turn you call. youre most likely behind but you beat some stuff and have some equity against other hands.
ME: another reason to not bet turn. He might shove and we have to call, that seems bad to me.
If he calls, river is an easy shove.
ME; totally disagree, unless you mean THIS
exact river. (assuming we bet turn and are called), I think a lot of river cards will make our shove anything but trivial. off suite K being the nut worst followed by T (improves TT and JT)
also starting to think i'd shove river as played. seems unlikely he's betting 20 into 37 w/ QJ
ME;Hmm.. I dont know about that. We x'd the turn back, he might have been looking for a check raise. I think he could surely bet 2/3ish for value with QJ.