Hi Everyone,
Trying to work out if my move last night was +ev or -ev.

Situation - live 1/2 - table buy-in limit is $100. Rake is 10% (capped at $20).

There is a side-game where flopping a royal-flush will score you a progressive jackpot (which grows by 20cents per cash hand played throughout the casino), which does lead to insanity pre-flop. At this low-stake, this establishment is famous for having family pots where everyone limps in.

It's just after 1am Sunday morning (Saturday night).

Villain in seat 3- appears to be grinding (which is odd given the rake, but I'm there too trying to build experience and a bankroll). His stack is a little over $300. He is drinking beer (half-way through second pint I've seen). He is playing TAG. "Normal" stack at the table is about $80-120.

I am in the cut-off with QQ. I have played about an hour and a lot of hands - probably following a LAG style - stolen a couple of pots with strong bets here and there.

UTG limps, UTG +1 limps. Villain raises to $13 (pot now $20). Folds to me in cut-off, I raise to $50. Everyone else folds to villain who shoves.


My thinking:
Hand ranges - AA, KK, AK, QQ. Maybe JJ if getting a little bit frisky. Villain has laid down a few hands to me and was frustrated on those occasions. It is possible that he bullying me.

The maths - Giving the villain AA, AKs, KK, and QQ my I'm an underdog - 28.5% with 71.5% to him. Including JJ makes me 42.5% to his 57.5%

The questions:
Is my hand-range reasonable? Or am I assuming that the player is too tight?
Is a 3-bet the right move there?
Once the shove comes should one call, or fold and wait for a better spot?


Alternative scenario:
What if instead a three-bet, I flat call the villain. Given the table dynamics, I'm reasonably sure that will lead to at least one more caller. Given the establishment, that caller will likely have KQo+. Is it every appropriate to turn premiums into a set-mining situation?

Well, how much money do you have behind?

Villain is half-way through his second pint at 1am on a Saturday night (Sunday morning) and that there's a Royal Flush promotion running. Why be concerned with extraneous information like effective stack size?

Sorry, I thought I included that - at the begging of the hand I had $351.

Do you need a hug?

If you want serious/drawn-out answers then you'll get more help if you posted it in the correct forum. Everyone left here is a drunk and a bum, reminiscing of days gone by.

Which forum would you suggest?

This forum is for online poker. The correct forum is Live Low-Stakes No Limit. I moved the thread you created in Live Casino Poker there (LCP is not a strategy forum, it's for all other live poker related things).