Interested in opinions about this hand could I loose less here? I had a bad feeling on the river as Q completes straight draws and gives KQ two pair but I felt I was priced in.



PokerStars - €0.50 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 73.94 BB (VPIP: 45.21, PFR: 28.72, 3Bet Preflop: 11.94, Hands: 197)
MP: 97.3 BB (VPIP: 24.00, PFR: 21.33, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 76)
CO: 30 BB (VPIP: 15.21, PFR: 12.89, 3Bet Preflop: 6.12, Hands: 404)
BTN: 31.68 BB (VPIP: 13.40, PFR: 11.46, 3Bet Preflop: 15.52, Hands: 196)
Hero (BB): 137.02 BB

Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1 BB) Hero has A K

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, MP calls 6 BB

Flop: (18 BB, 2 players) K 7 T
Hero bets 12 BB, MP calls 12 BB

Turn: (42 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero bets 33 BB, MP calls 33 BB

River: (108 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero bets 83.02 BB and is all-in, MP calls 43.3 BB and is all-in

MP shows 7 7 (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 55%, Flop 92%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows A K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 45%, Flop 8%, Turn 0%)
MP wins 188.6 BB

what were you hoping to get paid by? KJ? I understand you are shorthanded but that doesn't justify going all in with tptk.

Yes I agree river is a check to allow him to bluff with missed FD, but do I ever consider folding when he pushes last 43BB on the river?

Pretty standard mate tbh, once he calls the 33BB bet OTT my alarm bells would have been in full chime and from tht point on i'm probably in check call mode, I think you've shown enough strength throughout the hand tht ur opponent should at least be considering a better set so you should check the RIV and give ur opponent the chance to check behind, he might bet anyway but at least you've given urself the best chance to lose less, if he jams the RIV then ur in a tuff spot anyways after putting in 40% of ur stack but if u can find a fold then its money saved, just one of those spots, UL fella

std

The river shoves doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I'd rather c/c or c/f than jam. What worse hand is paying you off here? The more I look at it that turn call by the villain is rather suspicious. The 2c does nothing to change the hand and he's basically committing himself by calling the turn. Smells like trouble.

Played fine. Queen on the river kind of sucks but I'm fine with jamming for value. Why is turn call suspicious? If you're scared when you get called after betting AK on the turn, why are you even betting? On this board, at these stakes, and given this action, playing it straightforwardly by b/b/b is totally standard and correct. I would only x/c the river if I was confident that villain would actually bluff, which many do not.

Why so big on turn?

To give his draws incorrect odds but at the same time I feel players call off for this price 90%+ of the time with draws since I give him 31% equity which isn't too unreasonable. I feel betting anything less on the turn especialy considering this is a 3 bet pot and we have TPTK would be a mistake long term wise but I might be missing something?

So you're trying to ensure the only possible hands that can call you down here are KQ/KJ?

If he has spades, he's only getting there 8/46 times (17.4% equity). 2/3rds pot does just fine given stacks.

I suspect his range is a lot more pair heavy, so by betting huge, you're basically ensuring that you've cut off all the weak parts of his range like JJ or AT. Given his stats, this doesn't look like a dude who will mindlessly call bets on a draw, so you're sucking the showdown value out of your AK by facing him w/ big bets.

If you know he has a draw this makes sense. You have to consider the rest of his range. After the flop I'd assign a range like this:

34 combos: Ak Aq kq kj
30 combos; 88-Qq
4 combos: Kk-Aa
~30 combos: Flush/str8 draws

You want him to make the mistake of calling when he has one of the 64 way behind combos. A big bet prevents that against tight thinking players

As a tag he can probably do the math on draws and is less likely to make a bad call here too, and he has implied odds. So you aren't really forcing a mistake here either



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C/c or check fold river.

I see you're right but, betting 1/2 the pot would also make sense to me in a way that although i give his draws almost direct odds I will get value from his one pair hands that are behind and protect myself agaist loosing more money in situations like this hand what do you think?

Not the bolded part at all. Sometimes you get stacked and there's nothing you could do about it.

However, let's change this hand a little:

PokerStars - €0.50 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 73.94 BB (VPIP: 45.21, PFR: 28.72, 3Bet Preflop: 11.94, Hands: 197)
Hero: 97.3 BB
CO: 30 BB (VPIP: 15.21, PFR: 12.89, 3Bet Preflop: 6.12, Hands: 404)
BTN: 31.68 BB (VPIP: 13.40, PFR: 11.46, 3Bet Preflop: 15.52, Hands: 196)
BB (BB): 137.02 BB

Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1 BB) Hero has Q T

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (18 BB, 2 players) K 7 T
BB bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

Turn: (42 BB, 2 players) 2


Say you're the hero here holding QT. Aren't you going to be quite elastic on the turn depending on the bet size? Against half pot, you may be incentivized to call the bet, deciding that you're winning often enough. Against 80% pot though? Are you calling with the same range?

So maybe at one bet size, the guy's continue range is this:

Draws (20): A5, A6, A7, A8, A9, AJ, AQ, QJ, Q9, J9, 98, QJs, 98s, J9s (the non spades).

Pairs (27.1 after discounting): JTs, QTs, ATs, JJ (60%), QQ (50%), KJs, KQ, AKo (50%), AKs (25%)

Monsters (7): KTs, 77, TT (66.67%)

So no matter what your bet size is, the "monster" group is continuing for obvious reasons. The above draws may all continue against smaller bets, but we may say the second group will too. Against a bigger bet, though, we may knock out a lot of those draws (essentially everything that isn't a combo SD + FD so AQss, AJss, QJss, J9ss, 98ss), but also knock out all the pairs below top pair.

Half pot continuing equity:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: KT72

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AdKs	73.81%	427,247	31,245
AsQs@100, AsJs@100, As9s@100, As8s@100, As7s@100, As6s@100, As5s@100, QJ$s@100, Qs9s@100, J9$s@100, 98$s@100, JT$s@100, QT$s@100, AT$s@100, JJ@60, QQ@50, KJ$s@100, KQ@100, AK$o@50, AK$s@25, KT$s@100, 77@100, TT@67	26.19%	141,508	31,245

80% pot continuing equity:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: KT72

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AdKs	58.73%	320,260	64,278
AsQs@100, AsJs@100, QsJs@100, Qs9s@100, Js9s@100, 9s8s@100, KJ$s@100, KQ@100, AK$o@50, AK$s@25, KT$s@100, 77@100, TT@67	41.27%	215,462	64,278

If you do it out, you'd see that the half pot bet is worth more in terms of EV than the 80% pot bet, as you're keeping way more hands in his range. Plus, you can actually bluff the river now when you have a squeeze play turned into a triple barrel (villain is never folding a King on the river after you bet 80% pot barring a disaster card for him like an A).

Thanks alot for this very helpfull, just to clarify in you're opinion what sizing is more optimal in this spot 1/2 the pot or 2/3?

it can get paid by worse, but it's better to do that in steal dynamics, also since FD didn't get there, checking to induce bluffs is a good idea.

Also villain is fishy, he isn't using auto-rebuy, so jamming isn't bad. The EV of check-calling should be higher tho

I agree on the smaller size turn, i would say somewhere between 20-25bb. With the 33bb bet turn and your raise pre into bet bet line, if he thinks about it he will realise he is almost committed as soon as he calls turn, and most likely not paying anything less than doubles