Quote:
Originally Posted by Puma1
I see, what is you're suggested bet sizing here 1/2 the pot? 1/2 the pot would make sense to me in a way that although i give his draws almost direct odds I will get value from his one pair hands that are behind and protect myself agaist loosing more money in situations like this hand correct?
Not the bolded part at all. Sometimes you get stacked and there's nothing you could do about it.
However, let's change this hand a little:
PokerStars - €0.50 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: 73.94 BB (VPIP: 45.21, PFR: 28.72, 3Bet Preflop: 11.94, Hands: 197)
Hero: 97.3 BB
CO: 30 BB (VPIP: 15.21, PFR: 12.89, 3Bet Preflop: 6.12, Hands: 404)
BTN: 31.68 BB (VPIP: 13.40, PFR: 11.46, 3Bet Preflop: 15.52, Hands: 196)
BB (BB): 137.02 BB
Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1 BB) Hero has Q
T
fold,
Hero raises to 3 BB,
fold,
fold,
BB raises to 9 BB,
Hero calls 6 BB
Flop: (18 BB, 2 players) K
7
T
BB bets 12 BB,
Hero calls 12 BB
Turn: (42 BB, 2 players) 2
Say you're the hero here holding Q
T
. Aren't you going to be quite elastic on the turn depending on the bet size? Against half pot, you may be incentivized to call the bet, deciding that you're winning often enough. Against 80% pot though? Are you calling with the same range?
So maybe at one bet size, the guy's continue range is this:
Draws (20): A
5
, A
6
, A
7
, A
8
, A
9
, A
J
, A
Q
, Q
J
, Q
9
, J
9
, 9
8
, QJs, 98s, J9s (the non spades).
Pairs (27.1 after discounting): JTs, QTs, ATs, JJ (60%), QQ (50%), KJs, KQ, AKo (50%), AKs (25%)
Monsters (7): KTs, 77, TT (66.67%)
So no matter what your bet size is, the "monster" group is continuing for obvious reasons. The above draws may all continue against smaller bets, but we may say the second group will too. Against a bigger bet, though, we may knock out a lot of those draws (essentially everything that isn't a combo SD + FD so AQss, AJss, QJss, J9ss, 98ss), but also knock out all the pairs below top pair.
Half pot continuing equity:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
AdKs | 73.81% | 427,247 | 31,245 |
AsQs@100, AsJs@100, As9s@100, As8s@100, As7s@100, As6s@100, As5s@100, QJ$s@100, Qs9s@100, J9$s@100, 98$s@100, JT$s@100, QT$s@100, AT$s@100, JJ@60, QQ@50, KJ$s@100, KQ@100, AK$o@50, AK$s@25, KT$s@100, 77@100, TT@67 | 26.19% | 141,508 | 31,245 |
80% pot continuing equity:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
AdKs | 58.73% | 320,260 | 64,278 |
AsQs@100, AsJs@100, QsJs@100, Qs9s@100, Js9s@100, 9s8s@100, KJ$s@100, KQ@100, AK$o@50, AK$s@25, KT$s@100, 77@100, TT@67 | 41.27% | 215,462 | 64,278 |
If you do it out, you'd see that the half pot bet is worth more in terms of EV than the 80% pot bet, as you're keeping way more hands in his range. Plus, you can actually bluff the river now when you have a squeeze play turned into a triple barrel (villain is never folding a King on the river after you bet 80% pot barring a disaster card for him like an A
).