2/3 300 max buy 300 max bet

Villain BB: $800
Fish SB: $200
Hero BT: $1100

Villain is a middle aged opponent that has been playing a tight conservative style. Furthermore, appears to be a thinking player that is capable of reading opponents ranges and the board. He doesn't constantly blast away with TPTK, Set, or Over-pair when the more obvious draws come in. Based on observation, Villain chose to flat a raise with AK OOP, while chose to 3-bet Over pairs. Villain choose to check the river with top set when a flush came in, and almost folded to a river bet.

Hero is in his mid 20's. Typically plays a tight aggressive style. The table is 7-handed so hero has decided to open up a bit more.

Hand in question:

Folded to hero on the BT. Hero makes it $15 (standard rise at the time) with 7d6d

SB: Calls

BB: Makes it $45

Hero calls the smallish 3 bet, in the hopes that the fish will call. SB folds. I am aware I could have just as easily folded here, so I am looking for advice just based on how the hand was played post flop.

Flop $105: 9d 6h 5d

Villain: Checks

Hero: bets out $50

Villain: raises to $150

Hero: calls

Turn $405: 9d 6h 5d Kd

Villain: checks

Hero: bets $200 after hitting the flush

Villain: tanks for a few minutes and calls

River $800: 9d 6h 5d Kd 5h

Villain: Once the board pairs, villain insta max bets $300

Hero: Folds

I think I made the right play on the river. I don't think villain shows up with anything that cannot beat a 7 high flush. My guess is that he most likely has 9's full or K's full on the river given the line he took during the hand.

Thoughts ?

Bet the max on turn obv.

You're right. Any value in massively re raising the flop? He's likely no going anywhere with 99 or AKs/AQs. Other than those three hands his range is capped at TT+. May he puts me on strong made hand instead of a combo draw. As mentioned before villain is catious and can make a big fold.

Preflop used to be an insta-raise for me. But now I think it might depend on how fit/foldy the blinds are; if they are sticky and I'm not willing to barrel, I've been considering smaller preflop raises in these spots, and perhaps even just open limping (and attempting to steal their blinds on the flop if they check to me). I'm really undecided on this right now.

If BB is aware we're often opening light here and is capable, I'm even more for simply open limping. Not in love with our call here, as it's getting pretty damn expensive and we're mostly probably going to have to fold the flop to his cbet when we both whiff.

Kinda weird that the Villain checked the flop. Doesn't this smell weird? Like, is he *ever* folding to a flop bet here? If he ain't, then I might just take my free card. Course, you could argue that our hand has so much equity here that we should just bet for value, but there is also the case where he's decided to check/call with a bigger draw than us, in which case we're pretty happy with a check back here.

As played, I'd now shove the flop. Even if he has overs + flushdraw he might have a hard time calling a shove (putting us on a set). We should have massive FE against overpairs at this point (and our even ahead equity-wise so we can stomach a call). The only hands we aren't doing great against are sets/straights but even against them we have decent equity. The pot is huge and worth winning right now with our huge equity + FE.

On the turn, I think we have to give careful consideration to what this guy has. He's tight and conservative, and playing with a deepstack, OOP to someone he probably doesn't consider a fish. Is he really attempting to play for stacks on the flop against us with just an overpair by check/raising this flop when we could have hit our set? I'm guessing not, which means he more likely has (a) a set or (b) a flush draw that just got there. He did conservatively check the turn, which I'm guessing he wouldn't do with a flush for fear he might give us a free card to hit a fullhouse. So more likely a set? Pot is $400 and we have $600 left. Lotta scare cards for us (board pairing, 4-to-a-flush). I might just shove?

I think I also hero fold the river.

ETA: Just realized there is a $300 max bet and we can't jam the flop thus maximing FE. Think I'd still do it anyways as this bet threatens another max bet on the turn.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Are the rules such that on the flop you can make it $300 more (i.e. raise to $450) or is your max raise $150 more, i.e. raise to $300?

If we can make it 300 more I like re-raising the flop a lot. V looks like he has a fold button. You're putting a ton of pressure on his overpairs, and not clear to me that this V would 3-bet 99 so he's pretty capped here. You can have all sets, and a lot of two pair or straight combos. If he calls, he'll often check to you on the turn and let you take a free card if you whiff. You're also basically never a huge underdog with flush draw, gut shot and middle pair

As played, river is close between call or fold. Question is whether he's ever over-valuing AA or AK here. Given the price we only need to be good a bit more than 20% of the time. V has 3 combos of KK, 3 combos of 99, and one combo of AdQd. He has 6 combos of AA and 12 of AK. Basically, if he ever takes this line with TPTK or AA, you have to call, so I probably call expecting to be beat more than half the time, but not all the time. If your read is he's never betting with two pair here though, a fold is fine.

repop the flop and try to get it in right there. his hand is pretty much turned face up as an over pair.

as played,
so we are really giving him credit specifically for KK, bigger flush, or maybe 99? yes, we have played our hand face up as a combo flush draw, and we know that V is aware that we probably have the flush, but it is jsut so nitty to give V credit for such a small range of hands in a head up pot.

no problem with a fold, but I am calling here most of the time.

I think preflop is 100% a call >200BB deep. I'm willing to give people credit for a value 3! oop until they prove otherwise and would assume BB has a pretty strong range. I'd also bet a bit less preflop to further increase the SPR.

I think the flop bet is a huge mistake. You have middle pair with a non-nut straight/flush draw. Just check it back and take a free card. It's very suspicious when someone 3! oop then checks. If the stacks were much smaller, you could shove and realize your ~55% equity on the flop. The problem here is that any bet that is called creates the opportunity for a large turn bet. You currently have ~55% equity to see two cards, but only ~35% equity to see one card.

As played on the flop, I'd just shove (or max raise to $450?). It's not a ridiculous over bet because a pot-sized reraise would be to $550 and you'd be shoving to $750. You guarantee two cards where you have 50+% equity.

The turn is perfect because it completes a flush and blocks AdKd. You need to bet the max on the turn.

I'm almost never folding the river. You get almost 4:1 odds. Villain only has three KK combos. He only needs one AdKx or AA combo to make calling correct. Given his previous nittiness on the river with a set on a flush board, folding may be the right move against this villain.

Preflop is fine, but I agree with gobbledygeek about perhaps just limping. AP, given the size of the 3! and how deep you both are (plus position), flatting this is just fine.

OTF I think you could bet with the intention of basically never folding to any raise, or check back and take the free card. Your hand is really disguised at this point and you could potentially trap an overpair into making a big mistake. AP is fine, imo.

Before we get to the turn, I want to talk about his range a bit. Up until now, everything is consistent with a big pair. He doesn't seem to be the type to 3! an AK (anyone disagree?) or medium pairs (like 99). So I've got him at this point on all combos JJ+, maybe the 4 AKs and 2 AKo, and like half the combos of TT, which I don't think he'd always 3! OOP. If this range is correct, we have boocoo equity (what site do people like for equity vs range calcs?) on the flop and there's basically nothing that makes me fold at this point. Great shape going to the turn.

OTT we hit the flush, which is super, but KK got there. He checks, which I think he probably does with the entire range I gave him OTF. We bet, and he calls, which he probably does with all AA, KK, AdKx. He might call with TT-QQ, but I think that's less likely (slightly more so if he has a diamond).

OTR the board pairs, which is not ideal, but I think we're losing to exactly KK. When he fires out, what can he really have that beats us (other than that)? Is he 3! 99 or AQs? I tend to think not. So there are 3 plausible combos that beat us, and we need ~27% equity to call. If he could ever do this with even ONE combo of aces (or a derpy AK) then I think it's a call. Given that lollive players do dumb **** fairly often, I think should have been a fairly easy call, esp given the price. If he has that KK, good for him, on to the next hand. Even if we give him all 99 too (which I think is too generous), that's still only 6 combos and we only need two that we beat to make it a basically break-even call. Like MIB211 said, I don't think you're good half the time, but you are good more than a fourth of the time, just because his range that beats you is so insanely narrow.

I call, expecting to lose more than win, but okay with it because of the math.

I don't like the open sizing. It is way too big for button open.

with 67dd, you want to keep SPR still high when you get 3bet from blinds.

8-10 is a much better sizing.

I'd seriously consider 3bet flop to put the pressure back. You have all sets, straights on this flop while V can not. His range is capped at over-pair very often.

Not many people would like to get it in on this flop with overpair 200BB++

I Agree,I assume this is at Talking Stick,$12 or even $10 OTBin an unopened pot will get the same amount of gold as $15.

3x isn't that small of a 3!
Feels like a weak play. I hate open limping in almost any scenario, but esp. in LP, let alone OTB. You seem like a solid player, so I'd be interested in how you could possibly be torn here. As a thinking player myself, I can see some situations where it might benefit and could name some justifications, but I think it's a less optimal play than opening, esp. given our longterm strategy/goals for the session.

Yea, but when we see V nit rolling and being board texture conscious, it's kind of shocking if he has anything other than KK here. AQdd would be literally the only other hand I see him doing this with. We have a V who seems conservative and board texture conscious. How does he ever have 99, XXdd, a random bluff, or anything else in his range. The line simply screams KK. We know he isn't bluffing or over valuing a hand. So what do we beat?

As I say, this used to be an auto-open for me, and also for a typical "normal" raise amount. My thinking in the past is that we often steal the blinds, and otherwise we often steal the pot with a cbet, plus the more money we put in preflop the more we end up stealing postflop (thus I was cool with the "normal" sized open).

But now I'm not as convinced as I once was that this is the most profitable route, *especially* if the blinds are sticky and we're a little unwilling to barrel multiple streets (which, honestly, against sticky villains we should be very wary of doing). Some of my reasons:

- we're risking $15 to win $4 in blinds, and if we see a HU flop we're risking another bet of probably ~$15ish to win ~$34; the more we start risking, the more we have actually have to successfully steal the pot with 7 high in order for the flat out steals to be profitable; against sticky opponents, I'm beginning to question whether risking so much to win so little is profitable; for example, lets say we raise to $15 in four hands and will flop air, where the first 2 hands we steal preflop, the 3rd we steal postflop against the BB, but the 4th we give up after the flop cbet is called by the BB, where overall our stealing success rate was 75% (which seems quite high, no?) and yet we netted a loss of $6; obviously this example ain't perfect (it doesn't take into times we flop a real hand, or get to take a free card to make a hand, although it also doesn't take into account we hit a dominated hand and payoff an extra bet either), but overall it simply questions exactly how profitable these steal attempts really are (even ones with a high success rate)

- so another idea is to simply risk less preflop so that are success rate at stealing preflop/postflop doesn't have to be as high to be profitable; for example, perhaps just raise $10 preflop to attempt to win the $4 / setup a cheaper cbet steal (where using the same example above we'd only have a net loss of $1); course one of the problems with this is the smaller we raise the more chance the preflop steal doesn't work at all, plus we end up multiway more often (which cuts down the success rate of our cbets)

- so another take might be to just simply open limp and then attempt to steal postflop, where we typically have way more information than if we raise; for instance, when we raise, our opponent(s) will typically check-to-the-raiser, giving us pretty much zero information if they've hit the flop; but if we open limp, especially against face up opponents, they will often tell us in a limped pot whether they have a hand or not (by betting vs checking the flop), which gives us much more information regarding whether our flop stab will be successful or not

- so much of smaller stack NL is simply getting in money preflop with the best hand, and the more we get in preflop will pay off incrementally postflop, which will pay off in the long run against dominated hands who will pay off a street or two postflop; but when one or two bets go in postflop, we're often the ones who are paying off since we're seeing the flop with 7 high

- but, on top of all this, we probably don't want to be seen as the guy who is only raising TT+/AK, so while raising 7 high preflop *might* not be profitable in a vacuum (???), it perhaps could be in the long term due to meta-game

As I say, I'm just a lot more torn on this now than I was before. Before if I saw someone open limp in LP I'd just auto-chuckle to myself how bad this guy is. Now I'm not so sure. Raising certainly is sexy, but I'm just not as convinced as I once was that it's necessarily the best play.

GhasnoideawhatIbelieveanymoreG