Here is a particlar spot I would like to have some toughts on. I am trying to run EV calculations with different assumptions. I would like to have some toughts / input on these assumptions.

Vilain is 19/16, he folds 64% to 3 bet.
Overall, he has a 4 bet range of 4,8%
His overall 4 bet % from EP is 3,8 and 6,5% from MP.
Vs me he 4 bet 32% of the time overall.

I am trying to figure out if shipping, 150 bb deep can be EV+.

On one side, because of deep stacks, he could be 4 bet bluffing a little wider here, and he is already on the loose side. So this make me think that he will fold a lot (enough).

On the other hand, I am 3 betting MP3 vs MP1, so I should get more credit for my 3 bet....

I also assume that his calling range will be KK, AA only that deep.

By the way, my 3 bet size is a misclick, I would raise to 9 usually in this spot....

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Button ($105.96)
SB ($140.90)
BB ($100)
UTG ($189.92)
UTG+1 ($39.04)
MP1 ($282.78)
MP2 ($44.45)
Hero (MP3) ($153.47)
CO ($46.27)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, 10
2 folds, MP1 bets $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $14, 4 folds, MP1 raises to $28, [color=#CC3333]Hero ???

why are you 3 betting at all?

who knows if it's profitable?!?!? not enough info.

and he should get way more respect for his 4 bet.

So what info would you need to take a decision?

I'd rather CIB 5-bet than shove if I wanted to continue here.

Just noticed the misclick. I'd just fold now after he 4-bets a 14x 3b.

Ok, and if you choose that line (ignoring the misclick), how much to you bet and do you have any intention to fold to a shove?

I'd click it back or make it a couple extra big blinds if you want...doesn't matter much. Definitely folding to a shove. I don't give anyone credit for 6b shoving light in a spot like this and we won't have enough equity to call.

Hand 0: 29.311% { AsTs }
Hand 1: 70.689% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Obv KK+ needs to be weighted more heavily, but it actually doesn't change our equity all that much.

please don't 3bet/fold this hand.

Did you mean "Please don't 3 bet this hand just fold..." or please don't 3 bet and then fold?

the second one

In general I agree hurt, but you don't think it matters that he 4b over 14x?

flatting here seems perfectly reasonable

Well, I am learning more about deep stack play (thank you to Zoom) lately. Theses situations are way more common than at normal tables...

Anyway, I guess if you flat, you rely on implieds odds and hope to flop a monster....

Also, do you ever consider bluffing postflop in a 4 bet pot where vilain represent strenght? Isnt flatting going to put us in a lot of weird spots later in the hand?

I personally like 3-betting to iso, but flatting may be reasonable if there's a fish in the blinds (especially the BB for Zoom since they can't quick fold). Also helps if there aren't any squeezy and/or tough players behind.

Edit: Just realized he meant flatting the 4b so nevermind.

no, i don't think it matters. i don't think you can fold to this 4bet. your options are call or 5b.

anyway, just call pre next time. idk why you're even 3betting.

I agree, I just find it strange that you don't think it changes his range after 4-betting a 14x 3b. I know I'd be thinking "wtf nice sizing...you can have it bro".

you're completely warping everything i say. stop.

i said "please don't 3bet/fold this hand"
you said "you don't think it matters that he 4b over 14x?"

not if all we're talking about is whether or not you should fold to a 4bet.

I didn't warp anything. That's why I said in general, I agree that 3-betting to fold is not good.

I'm commenting on the hand as played.

just flat pre, would flat 4bet

kinda hate calling 4bet pre w/o a plan that's not plz flop flushdraw, plz flop flushdraw, plz flop flushdraw. 3betting w/o a plan seems fine though (assuming no fish behind). 5betting is somewhat reasonable once 4bet, but i think w/ your sizing i would just fold.

yeah i definitely consider bluffing, would be better at maybe 200bb deep but its fine

prob call

My misclick 3 bet size probably change his 4 betting range at least a little.
But here, to shove profitabiliy, I have to assume that he calls with KK/AA only and 4 bet 2.2% range. AK, KK++ range is 2.1%, so he don't need to bluff that much to make the shove EV+.

On the other hand, not sure I would feel that comfortable only flatting here. Like Vinni said, if our only plan is to hope to flop a FD, then you are going to fold a lot postflop. Also, what is our plan if we flop an A? Feels like there are some RIO here.

my thought process through this entire thread was bizarrely similar loosbastard's. my initial thought was min5b > shove, then i realised the misclick size which i definitely agree changes his 4b range.

vini chimed in well too.

like this post especially:

I personally like 3-betting to iso, but flatting may be reasonable if there's a fish in the blinds (especially the BB for Zoom since they can't quick fold). Also helps if there aren't any squeezy and/or tough players behind.

what? so a hand that flops overcard + bdfd minimum on the majority of boards isn't good enough for you to feel comfortable postflop IP? you need a "plan" for when you flop an A? perhaps you have other things to be concerned about other than whether or not you should 3bet.

also, just imo, if you say you're 3betting this solid-seeming reg just to "iso" him, then you can justify any 3bet as a "3bet iso."