Here is a particlar spot I would like to have some toughts on. I am trying to run EV calculations with different assumptions. I would like to have some toughts / input on these assumptions.
Vilain is 19/16, he folds 64% to 3 bet.
Overall, he has a 4 bet range of 4,8%
His overall 4 bet % from EP is 3,8 and 6,5% from MP.
Vs me he 4 bet 32% of the time overall.
I am trying to figure out if shipping, 150 bb deep can be EV+.
On one side, because of deep stacks, he could be 4 bet bluffing a little wider here, and he is already on the loose side. So this make me think that he will fold a lot (enough).
On the other hand, I am 3 betting MP3 vs MP1, so I should get more credit for my 3 bet....
I also assume that his calling range will be KK, AA only that deep.
By the way, my 3 bet size is a misclick, I would raise to 9 usually in this spot....
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) -
PokerStars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com
Button ($105.96)
SB ($140.90)
BB ($100)
UTG ($189.92)
UTG+1 ($39.04)
MP1 ($282.78)
MP2 ($44.45)
Hero (MP3) ($153.47)
CO ($46.27)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A
, 10
2 folds,
MP1 bets $3,
1 fold,
Hero raises to $14,
4 folds,
MP1 raises to $28, [color=#CC3333]Hero ???