Vilain is 16/13
85% flop cbet
he steal 40% from CO, so he has a pretty weak / wide range

OTF, I have 2 overs vs his very wide range, + my A high is maybe even good
he only barrels 29% OTT overall, so he will shut down a lot so it seems like a decent plan to flat flop

OTT tough, what do you think of raising here? He don't barrel much (bad argument for raising), but here he gets the perfect card to barrel and I think that a lot of regs will be barreling a lot on this turn when they have air (good argument for raising)....
+ I have some equity if called


$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($114.87) 115bb
UTG+1 ($115.08) 115bb
MP1 ($107.42) 107bb
MP2 ($50) 50bb
MP3 ($105.91) 106bb
CO ($103.69) 104bb
Hero (BTN) ($140.55) 141bb
SB ($260.64) 261bb
BB ($35.28) 35bb

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 9 players) Hero is BTN A J
5 folds, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: 5 4 10 ($7.50, 2 players)
CO bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: K ($17.50, 2 players)
CO bets $10, $10 to Hero ($132.55)?

your play seems backwards to your read imo

I agree and this is why I am wondering.

I mean, if the turn is the 4 of or any other card that he can't use as a scare card or don't change the board texture, I think this is a clear and easy fold.

My only argument for raising is that the K is probably the perfect scare card to fire a 2nd barrel.

Also, not sure how much credit I get here?

Depends on your image really, if villain sees you as an ABC reg not capable of bluffing this spot then villain will have a tough call even with AK given that you can plausibly rep a set here since the board just got pretty wet on that turn, and if called you still have 4 Q's that should be clean outs, a ton of river cards you can bluff, and possibly even a few clean Aces so seems ok to me.

But if you're bluff raising tons in spots like this then I don't see you getting a lot of respect, and villain might not even barrel without intending to call a raise from you.



Only do this if you think villain is capable of folding AK vs your perceived range here

I like it.

Don't really need him to fold anything good for this to be +ev.

he can bet the turn super wide for value and shove a ton of hands over your raise (n.b. as a result, this is a spot you can raise the turn for value to induce drawy spazz time/control river action more comfortably with marginal holdings). floating the turn to potentially do some crazy river **** is way superior imo.

meh doesn't really make sense

I think our range is pretty capped if we float the turn tho, I mean what set doesn't raise at some point before the river on double suited draw heavy boards? Villain can put us squarely on some sort of drawing hand and check call a huge portion of his range on the river and be +ev since we're almost always going to bet when checked to on the river.

I tend to agree with that. Our range will be super capped and I might not get much credit. Could work vs a very aggro opponent tought.... that value bet super thin or barrel with a lot of missed draws + air on the river.

This vilain seems to shutdown a lot OTT and OTR, he might not be the best targent isnt it?

Tried bluff raises vs super aggro (aggro that have an out of line 3 bet from the blinds and barrelling a ton) today and worked very well, especially in 3 bet pot.

why do you think it doesnt make sense?