Vilain is 14/10 over 4.1k hands
He steal 32% BTN and fold 71% vs resteal
He fold 58% vs cbet, but only 38% in 3bet bot. (he seems to fold a lot to turn and river barrels).
He raises 15% vs cbet in 3 bet pot.


I found this spot interesting and would have some toughts on it.

I mean, what is he representing when he raises here? I block TT and probably QT as well, if its ever in his preflop calling range. I really doubt he would have played QQ this way as well. Maybe he could have AQ that could play exactly like that.

He could have 44 once in a while, but don't you think he will have a lot of draws in his range here?

I am even wondering if we could be ahead a decent amount of the time?

I think that calling will put is in some impossible spots on later streets, so I am wondering is we will be ahead often enough to consider shipping? Plus, if we are behind, to dou think our outs could still be good (backdoor flush, backdoor straight, overcard, trips)?


Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $100.50
SB: $219.92
Hero (BB): $101.86
UTG: $202.31
UTG+1: $100.00
UTG+2: $104.50
MP1: $117.70
MP2: $111.58
CO: $133.18

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with T K
6 folds, BTN raises to $2.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7.50, BTN calls $5

Flop: ($15.50) 4 Q T (2 players)
Hero bets $8, BTN raises to $20, Hero???

you have a pretty good hand to c/c flop with. (and also flat pre with). just saying.

as played, i'm not thrilled that he's a 14/10 but i'll call and see what happens.

all in

Yeah, made the breakdown after posting and found few interesting things.

First, this is probably close preflop to call (equity wise) oop with KTo. He is stealing 32% OTB, but with offsuit hands we have less possibilities postlop. Would prefer KTs for sure.... If we think we have a good postflop edge vs him, calling is fine.

I think that I was a little optimistic when evaluating the number of FDs combos and semi bluffs hand in his flop raising range. Yes he raises 15% of flop cbet in 3 bet pot, but he has a tight range so he don't raise often with hands that don't have at least good equity. My FE is probably very low when I ship and he don't have enough draws for me to have 50%+ equity vs his calling range.

In short, vs a tight player, check calling flop is probably the best option. Vs a looser opponent that call wider preflop and that raise flops with GS, BD draws etc, I think taking this line would be probably closer to be EV+.

Couldn't he have his entire value range here? He can cold call QQ+/AK, and raise your cbet on the flop with all those hands, and probably the only one you're folding is AK (which you're ahead).

I don't actually know how to handle these bluff 3b where I hit a piece of the board. Check calling seems exploitable/spewy given if you're c/c you gotta possibly call 3 barrels...

I think a good line could be bet flop/ship

Given his stats really easy ch/f on flop. Continuing against this raise would be horrendous.

Not even check/call for one street? I know this is going to be tought to continue OTT and he will likely continue to apply pressure....

HEY, VERY COOL HAND.


Ok so we have a 14/10, that's already a lot of folding. Guess what, that guy likes to fold, he folds a ton.

Now we have KTo, that hand is trash but hey let's play a trash hand against a tight player out of position, after all if we listen to 2+2, everybody has such a skill advantage that they would play out of position trashy hands anytime. Not only a call, **** no, he is tighter than you but let's play a big pot since he is going to fold post flop the best hand.

He folds 71% to resteals (of an already very tight button stealing range) but hey here is the flop, QT4 with a flushdraw. Bingo, now we cbet because hey he only folds 38% to cbet but we have a READ, I quote "he seems to fold a lot to turn and river barrels" because yes, how can a guy have a fold to cbet so low (answer, he is TIGHT, folding 38% to cbet when your range is 88+ and most suited broadway is actually high)

Now he raises, GRRRRRR, he must be outplaying us, we count the combos, OK I block that hand and that hand, there is no way he's valuing here. Should I shove ? I'm just going to post on 2+2 my elaborated thought process to see if my reasons to be spewy on every street appeal to my peers.


Now let's look at vilain POV :

zomg I have a hand worth raising here, QQ. Oh that guy raises, ok I don't like flipping so I will just see a flop because I am a NIT. On the flop, a queen, I now beat KK and AA. What should I do ? Oh there is a flushdraw and I don't want to see a J, he must pay to see the turn so I'll just raise.


it's as simple as this really, man that's fullring hello

that's about the worst hand in the deck to be 3betting with

3bet is fine imo. bet on flop not so fine

now you fold like a bitch

pre=fine, c c flop better imo.

This needs more love. Can prob use this to answer another 20 threads.

pretty much what babar said, preflop hand selection is rly bad

What? He could literally 3-bet two napkins and show a profit preflop, how can that be bad? But yeah like I said earlier very easy ch/f on flop once a nit who folds to a lot of 3-bets flats your 3b and you get that board.

KTo is doing pretty awful when called or 4b, just b/c you expect a lot of folds, I wouldn't just go 3betting things that do poorly when they dont fold

also as babar pointed out the guy is only stealing button like 32%, that's not a whole lot. So I'm not super excited about trying to play back in the first place.