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100nl AQs can he fold OTR? 100nl AQs can he fold OTR?

12-30-2013 , 05:18 AM
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #21979781

MP2: $41.50 (41.5 bb)
MP3: $44.76 (44.8 bb)
CO: $58.45 (58.5 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)
SB: $11.85 (11.9 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $80 (80 bb)
MP1: $101 (101 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q A
UTG+2 posts BB OOP, UTG+2 checks, MP1 raises to $5, 5 folds, Hero calls $4, UTG+2 folds

Flop: ($11.50) 7 T J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $9, Hero raises to $22.50, MP1 calls $13.50

Turn: ($56.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $26.50, MP1 calls $26.50

V is marked as a tight passive reg from my earlier FR 100nl days, had no hands on him when this hand was played though.

So i flat pre to keep the poster in the pot. The board hits my calling range pretty hard and i have some good baralling cards, that's why i decided to go for the c/r and make him fold the majority of his range.

When he flats OTF he can have Jx, QQ+ and other FD, str8draw type hands. OTT he should be folding his weak Jx and draw combos . The question is now when the river hits, on which cards do i shove w air? Is he really capable of laying down QQ+ here?
12-30-2013 , 12:13 PM
c/f turn is by far your best bet with this hand.
12-30-2013 , 01:24 PM
If you're going to raise the flop, I think your raise size (small) is going to make the range you face more difficult to figure out, and more player specific. Against some players, you could barrel turn + river 'cause you got them to call wider... and against some you shouldn't barrel here unless the turn gets scarier or you have value/semi-bluff.

The range you give your opponent makes sense, but is likely heavily weighted towards hands that aren't folding on that turn. It's not the hands that you're assigning that's the problem, it's the lack of weighting, and the lack of considering that some players will have a wide range here, and some won't.

"Tight passive reg" makes me think they're more likely to have significantly less hands that will fold the turn than average.
12-30-2013 , 01:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatavas19
So i flat pre to keep the poster in the pot.
This is poor reasoning. Often you may wish to flat to keep a limper in the pot, but a poster is far less frequently calling a raise.
12-30-2013 , 05:48 PM
Would you take this line (sizing) with a set? I doubt it.
12-30-2013 , 06:00 PM
definitely c/f turn here. flop raise is kind of spewy
01-04-2014 , 07:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Muffin Man
Would you take this line (sizing) with a set? I doubt it.
Why not to ck-r all my sets o this super drawheavy flop??? On that kind of board i think you shouldnt have any ck-calling ranga at all. Ck-fold or ck-raise are only options imo.
01-04-2014 , 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hard2tel
definitely c/f turn here. flop raise is kind of spewy
how is flop raise spewy? seems like one of the best bluffing hands to do it with
01-04-2014 , 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JTisnuts
Why not to ck-r all my sets o this super drawheavy flop??? On that kind of board i think you shouldnt have any ck-calling ranga at all. Ck-fold or ck-raise are only options imo.
I'm not saying you wouldn't fast play your monsters here, but would you give villain 4 to 1 on the flop and 3 to 1 on the turn?
01-04-2014 , 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinivici9586
how is flop raise spewy? seems like one of the best bluffing hands to do it with
I think hero's perceived flatting range includes KQo/KQs and if he's c/r'ing with a lot of those combos then I think adding AQ to your c/r'ing range might be a bit much.

backdoor spades is nice, though. I probably wouldn't be able to keep myself from going pew pew pew either
01-04-2014 , 09:38 PM
oh, i c/c kq unless its kqcc. maybe your way is better
01-04-2014 , 11:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JTisnuts
Why not to ck-r all my sets o this super drawheavy flop??? On that kind of board i think you shouldnt have any ck-calling ranga at all. Ck-fold or ck-raise are only options imo.
That sounds like it would make your opponent's flop decision a lot simpler then- assuming he was aware of that- such as nice cheap bluffs with his low equity hands.
01-05-2014 , 02:35 AM
If teh guy can handread a bit he knows that teh 1 combo u could potentially have is flopped str8 + fd. On teh other hand its nl100... would prolly not xr flop without bd flush

Edit: jus saw teh bd. Flop is ok c/f turn
01-05-2014 , 11:34 AM
raise more on the flop
01-09-2014 , 04:47 PM
Your line seems reasonable enough to me so far.....the check raise on this flop is strong but can easily be a percieved bluff by villan and therefore the turn bullet is good here.....i really dislike bluffing the flop if your not going to follow through onto the turn....so I like the turn bet also.......i think if villan is still sticky after your turn bet, its give up time on the river......i seriously doubt villan calls this turn bet and folds on the river very often, unless he has kqcc that misses the river.......if he misses and we check to him will he barrel off? I kind of doubt it if you have him pegged as passive so I general I think its played decent but we need to be checking basically all non k rivers here in my opinion.

I tend to agree with the others about the sizing also.
01-10-2014 , 02:24 PM
Flop X-raise is spew, you have a tight passive reg firing into a flop on a bad board texture to bluff at. You said yourself it hits your range really hard so it's doubtful he's firing this flop without a strong hand/draw.

Turn is a check fold, it's a card that changes nothing and your turn sizing sucks
01-10-2014 , 07:15 PM
The SPR is a bit too low as well, so I wouldn't consider bluffing someone that also likely has a strong range when he 5x's it pre-flop. I would probably just check/call the flop and check/fold the turn.
07-07-2014 , 01:03 PM
What exactly folds to this check raise? I assume a large part of his range is 77+ aj+ and kq. What folds?

      
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