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100 NL Sick River Spot 100 NL Sick River Spot

07-08-2015 , 12:43 PM
To Preface this post:

BTN is a solid reg who over ~700 Hands has a 19% VPIP 15% PFR F3B 87% but has a 72% BSA from the button when folds to him, so I attempted a 3bet steal from the BB.

No Limit Hold'em $0.50/$1.00
PokerStars
7 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com - Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking

Stacks:
UTG - UTG ($101.50)
UTG+1 - UTG+1 ($103.00)
MP - MP ($100.00)
CO - CO ($126.53)
BTN - BTN ($156.09)
SB - SB ($208.53)
BB - Hero ($101.00)

Preflop: ($1.50, 7 players) Hero is BB with Th Jh
4 folds, BTN raises to $2.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $8.00, BTN calls $5.50

Flop: Td 6c 9h ($16.50, 2 players - BTN: $148.09, Hero: $93.00)
Hero bets $10.00, BTN calls $10.00

Turn: 9d ($36.50, 2 players - BTN: $138.09, Hero: $83.00)
Hero bets $20.00, BTN calls $20.00

River: 9s ($76.50, 2 players - BTN: $118.09, Hero: $63.00)
Hero checks, BTN bets $118.09 (all-in), Hero folds, Uncalled bet of $118.09 returned to BTN

Total Pot: $76.50

BTN wins $73.70

Reg tells me after the hand he had QQ, which im kind of skeptical that he flats my 3bet pre with KK, my thinking was that he could easily have various combos with a 9 or 1010, JJ or QQ like he had said....yet he could be bluffing with hands just as AQ AK KQ or JQ....what makes it even sicker is that correct me if I'm wrong but I should be checking back AA and KK here atleast some part of the time for balance.....in hindsight I'm starting to think that I potentially folded the best hand but would love to hear some insight....Potentially giving Villain too much credit because of the very strong hands I had seen showdown with in the past, and the only hands I'm beating are bluffs or I chop with another 10....any help would be much appreciated.
07-08-2015 , 03:23 PM
In the 13% of times he does not fold to a 3-bet, how often does he 4-bet compared to flatting? I'm curious if he's the type that would only 4-bet AA/KK in a full-ring game, or if he's 4-betting enough for us to discount QQ/JJ here.

I can't really imagine calling the river, as I don't see what kind of hands he can be bluffing with here other than something like QdJd/KdQd (just a couple of combos). I'm more curious if we should value bet the river against 66/77/88 and let him hero call because we're in a button vs bb battle.

I think he would play 77/88 like this every time up until the river and sometimes 66, while QQ/JJ might be 4-bet enough preflop to discount, and might be raised on the flop sometimes also.

I'm not sure how to define the range of suited connectors he would call here. He does have a high f3b and likely folds T9s, 89s kind of hands to most 3-bets, but given our positions, he might have peeled them off. These combos might push this river into a checkfold as opposed to a value shove.
07-08-2015 , 03:45 PM
Flop is probably a check, a bet is ok if you aren't too concerned with balance.

Turn bet is simply a mistake, and a pretty large one at that.

River is a call, but you shouldn't be getting here like this.
07-08-2015 , 03:48 PM
When a guy folding an enormous amount to 3bets calls my 3bet, I'm going to be very careful about putting more marginal money into the pot.

I think qq is very possible here. He's most likely a total nitball
07-10-2015 , 11:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RosaParks
Flop is probably a check, a bet is ok if you aren't too concerned with balance
Curious what you mean here. By definition, wouldn't a balanced set of actions include a reasonable distribution of checking, betting and check-raising? I'm a bit confused how betting in this instance somehow discards balance (I'm assuming of course that he doesn't bet 100% of the time).
07-10-2015 , 11:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerarb
When a guy folding an enormous amount to 3bets calls my 3bet, I'm going to be very careful about putting more marginal money into the pot.
This.
07-11-2015 , 06:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by negipai98
Curious what you mean here. By definition, wouldn't a balanced set of actions include a reasonable distribution of checking, betting and check-raising? I'm a bit confused how betting in this instance somehow discards balance (I'm assuming of course that he doesn't bet 100% of the time).
All I meant was that if you're going to construct a c/cing range, this hand should probably be in it.
07-11-2015 , 08:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RosaParks
All I meant was that if you're going to construct a c/cing range, this hand should probably be in it.
Got it. Thx.
07-11-2015 , 09:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RosaParks
Flop is probably a check, a bet is ok if you aren't too concerned with balance.

Turn bet is simply a mistake, and a pretty large one at that.

River is a call, but you shouldn't be getting here like this.
+1 to everything, esp turn. easiest xc in the world. I think flop is also a fairly easy xc as well.

      
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