P2(CO) $202.45 - VP:15 PFR:15 AF:1.0 W:33|100 STL:100|100 3B:17| CB:100| N:206.90 Hands:13

Me(UTG) $224.45 - VP:19 PFR:12 AF:4.5 W:30|33 STL:44|100 3B:5|50 CB:60|0 N:-189 Hands:81



Pre Flop: Me(UTG) with [9h,9s]
Me(UTG) raises 6, P7(MP) folds, P8(MP) calls 6, P9(MP) folds, P1(LP) folds, P2(CO) raises 26, P3(BTN) folds, P4(SB) folds, P5(BB) folds, Me(UTG) calls 20, P8(MP) folds


Flop: (3c,4d,Ad) (2 players)
Me(EP) checks, P2(LP) bets 22.50, Me(EP) calls 22.50

I call thinking a cbet doesn't have to mean he has an ace and maybe I can win the hand with a lead on the turn.

Turn: 5h (2 players)
Me(EP) bets 51, P2(LP) calls 51

I led hear thinking I could get him off of 3 betting hands that didn't include an Ace. KK, QQ, etc.


River: 8d (2 players)
Me(EP) bets 124.95, P2(LP) CALLS or FOLDS????

I originally was going to give up on the river but when the flush draw completed I thought maybe I could get him to fold an Ace if I was wrong originally about him having one.

My question here would be is turn and river play ok? Or is it too aggressive or won't work often enough? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

I feel when you call preflop (you could also fold imo), setmining is your best hope or praying he doesn't have a higher PP on a low board. Here you're turning 99 into a bluff on an A high board that helps his range, inversting a huge amount of money relying 100% on fold equity, and i don't think it will work enough to be profitable

I've only played 50nl but I think I can offer some insight. There is roughly 54% chance he has an ace, can be a bit higher if he doesn't 3b mid pp or high sc. It somewhat close to 54% no matter what kind of 3-better he is, with the biggest exception being 2%3b at 59% Ax. Your plan to call a bet and steal on turn costs you 73 to win 160, so it needs to work 45% of the time to profit. The exact math varies by ranges and possibly different flop bet sizes you might face in this type of scenario but basically he needs to always fold everything that's not an ace for you to break even. So the only reason to make this play is to increase your aggression. On the river, you are repping a range that makes sense, and v is unlikely to have something really strong, so that is good. I think hero/villian images and table dynamic help a lot on deciding whether to bluff here, but overall I think it can be +ev.

Fold OTF.

I don't like calling twice (pre and flop) with a mid-pair that cannot improve.

The way played, I would check/fold the turn. Hoping to get to showdown wihtout paying anymore.

Fold on flop. Were getting crushed. 99 arent going to win at showdown.

Set mining against a reg out of position when you barely get the odds to hit the set itself is rarely a good idea.
Against the range that you are facing there especially at a FR table you'll sometimes hit the set and then cry that the big bad reg coolered you with a better set(he couldn't really have a worse set there, could he?) or a straight or a flush.

I would say that after spewing preflop and flop, the turn and river are close to breakevenish.
And when it does work you'll feel so proud of yourself when you look in the mirror before the next session, and you'll feel so proud that you'll pull off similar -EV spews in other spots :-)

I'm not defending the call pre, I'm just saying that setting is pretty much the only good outcome here.