Yeah you want a downhill putt and a gentel breaker. I'd prefer left to right. I still think its a decent bet for the op. We definitely need this to take place. Side action would be fun

If you guys want side action, I can get the guy I'm betting against on here to verify results. Or you can just trust me as I have nothing to gain by lying. I just like prop bet action.

This will be taking place first week of Jan.

Just did a mini version of this. But rather than waste my time I decided to do it left handed. Obviously not a natural lefty, have played 1 round of golf left handed in my life and shot 133 ($1,000 bet where I had to shoot less than 130. Forced carries crushed me, lost 18 golf balls)

I took 25 balls. I made attempts 20 and 23. Here's a picture of the result. For reference the shortest putt is about 12 feet short.

You made it on 20 and 23 just because of variance though, right? It's not like you improved as you hit each ball. You had just as good of chance of making it on 1 because you're a ****ty left putter and can't adjust based on feedback.

This seems to be the rare 2+2 thread where people cling to their erroneous beliefs even more tightly after empirical evidence refuting those beliefs emerges.

I just did my best to give this a try. The longest putt I could find on my practice green was an 84 footer. It was uphill, double breaker that finished left to right. Green was in halfassed shape with some bare spots and there was a 10+ mph gusty wind into my face. I only made 1 #64, 3 others lipped out, and 2 were left short on the lip. 1 more revolution and in. I shoot low to mid 80's, with about 5 or so rounds in the 70's each year and struggle with putting.

Roch,

Nice. An 84 ft uphill double breaker sounds comparable.

Soss,

Surely you will be practicing between now and then. Be sure to update us in this thread.

I play semi regularly with high 80’s shooters, I know how bad they are. I am not a golf elitist that only plays with +’s…although that is what my Friday game consists of. But when I get out in the middle of the week it is almost always with the mid 50’s retired rich guys that are pretty bad at golf.

It’s honestly like somebody has hacked your account you are so far off base with some of your ideas. Of course I haven’t been around much lately due to the newborn so maybe you had some sort of mini-stroke I am not aware of.
Your first two paragraphs are all speculation and thus irrelevant. The third paragraph shows how much an extremely repeatable stroke gains in this experiment, something a bogey golfer does not possess. As for putting being a strength of my game, I would actually say my stroke is VERY good and consistent but where my leak in putting is revolves around green reading. I have actually said that numerous times in the forum so I’m not just fitting an example to my argument.


This post is why I am concerned for your health. Do you really not understand that a breaking putt can be made on a host of lines and speeds but a straight putt can only be made on ONE line? Making a 100 footer is almost exclusively luck, like a hole in one. So introducing luck to the equation is almost a must. My two make and several of the other putts that were close probably had 3+ feet of variance in the line they started on. However, the break at the end is what brought them all near the hole.

Furthermore, how do you know your putt is dead straight on the first putt yet I have to take 10-20 putts to get my line? You can read a 100 footer to be dead straight and be correct, or are you getting to practice putt and find your dead straight putt and then you start your trial? If that is the case why would I not get a few trial putts too? FWIW, I had the exact line I wanted to hit on about the 4th putt after only walking it off and starting my trial on the first putt I hit. It is on my practice green so I am familiar with it, but due to time constraints I literally did not even get behind it to read the putt.

I think that BO is underestimating how often he would make this putt.

the bet was $100 each for 100 putts from 100 feet. If I make 1 putt out of 100 I swoop the pot, if I miss all 100 you swoop the pot.

So you are trying to cut my odds in half lol

If you want to do $100 for the original 100 putts, I am game. What course lol?

I should note I love nxt and wish him a speedy recovery!

A breaking putt needs the same line to go in as a flat putt. Just because gravity makes it break more doesn't mean it goes in more often.

There's more ball paths that lead to a make when there is break involved, but if you're playing for 2 feet of break and you hit it with the wrong speed or face angle, you're still going to miss it. The only difference with a flat putt is that you know the break for sure. It takes the green-reading ability out of play and is therefore easier.

Perhaps I underestimated my chances, but apparently I'm still an idiot because I think OP is -EV

Awesome.

Ship, we've tried. We've really tried on this aspect but apparently we just don't know what we're talking about when it comes to straight putts. We've gotta be underestimating the ability of a bogey golfer to hit a 100 foot putt dead straight every time.

BO

Without a doubt, and by quite a wide margin. Proving that the fact that he is a phenomenal golfer does not in and of itself provide him with an uncanny insight into this particular highly specific task that happens to involve rolling golf balls at a hole.

This is the precisely. point I've been making with my last couple of posts.

This is great. I haven't posted in a while either mostly bc arguing with people that never concede to being incorrect despite being shown a plethora of data/evidence as proof is exhausting.

Speculatuon? The make %s I showed for PGA Tour players is straight from shot link data compiled in the last few years. I then extrapolated those numbers to show how unlikely it is that bogey golfers are 4-6 times worse.

You know, since you claimed you would make 4-6 % of 100 footers but a bogey golfer couldn't even muster .7%.


Bogey golfers are worse at green reading and will also benefit from learning the line and pace.

Wow.

It's still mind boggling people don't understand this concept.

Not really surprising tho.

Yes there are more lines that lead to the hole on breaking putts, but all of those lines have much smaller windows of speed necessary to go in.

On breaking putts you have to match up both speed and line almost exactly.

On straight putts you mostly just have to match up line as you have a larger margin of error in the speed department.

Answer this for me. Would you rather hit a straight 3 footer or a 3 footer that breaks 6 inches?

Apparently you want the breaker bc it somehow makes the hole bigger?

About as good as it gets. Something takes luck, so let's introduce more luck!

"Hey, hole in one's take a lot of luck. Let's add really strong, gusty winds to this par 3 tee shot! They're a must since we need to introduce more luck to the situation!"

And for the record, making a 100 footer is not even remotely close in the luck category to a hole in one. It's embarrassing that this appears necessary to mention.

You knew the exact line of a100 footer after 4 attempts. Lol.

Hint there is no such thing as an exact line on breaking putts as the line is dictated by the speed. One line could be great for a putt that dies into the hole, could be terrible for a putt with a little more speed to it.

Thanks for your concern on my health. If there are glaring signs of stroke in this response please point them out.

We're off on tangents, but comparing the straight vs breaking putt to a hole in one with or without wind is a great analogy.

Fwiw I'm not all that interested in the straight vs break debate, though I'm pretty sure it's about to completely take over the thread.

Edit: The last sentence of my last post, which I can no longer edit, is embarrassing. Apparently I haven't quite mastered posting from my phone.

no offense but this thread on its own isn't very good in my opinion because there are way too many variables. In pro golf we have great ball strikers that can't putt and not that good of ball strikers that are well known for putting. If the gap is that big in pro golf, how huge is it among bogey golfers? Huge! It depends on the putter.

I do think the calculations are way off and how many times a pro golfer makes a 100 ft putt in any given round is beyond useless.

I created the thread as a prop bet thread, not a golf thread per se. If you take it from that context, it's a great thread.

This thread and the related ones are great reading and is fiction to me. Cause at all the courses in my area a 100' putt is impossible the greens aren't that big.

so much elevation change makes it very difficult. I love hilly courses. They're fun!

Has it taken place yet?

My buddy was out of town. Should happen next week. I will update.

Putt

I'd use a sandwedge.

I set the odds for the putter at 7:5.