I'm thinking the odds are 30-1 against him, if not longer. Not only does he have to become Tiger again, he also has to pile up a ton of wins, and do it against fields that are deeper than they were 10 years ago. I'm still not ready to write him off, but I think it might take him more than a year.

To be honest, though, I'm not well-versed enough in how much he would need to win to be No. 1. Obviously he hasn't done much this year, so that won't help him. But if you wanted to say "chances he wins the 2012 money title," I'd say 30-1 is about right.

I think that the biggest edge for any player to become number 1 with todays field is that they do not need to win a ton, just consistently finish high and bag some wins.... The top ranked players are fairly tightly packed right now compared to 5 or 8 years ago when there larger dropoffs as you went down the list....
Luke has what; 5 wins total in 2010 & 2011 with his next previous win being 2004 (I might be missing a few there)

Its wide open...

he is ranked 50+th that means he needs to win several, at least 5-10 Tournaments to get to the top
i would go 30-50:1

You have to make the cut to win golf tournaments

Woods is not going to have problems making cuts. He WAS rusty and rough.

above: He will not need to win that many in one year, maybe 8 in 3 years to get to around #1; BTW that goes for any golfer out there....

I would take 35:1 $20-$50 if anyone is willing to lay it...

So basically whoever makes the bet against you probably doesn't even beat inflation if they win.

I think the odds are way less than 1% that he is #1 by end of next year. Doesn't mean I want to set aside a few hundred dollars for a chance to win a few dollars at the end of 2012

I would make it my new job to take all the action in the world against this happening, and would lay 35-1.

I would also say that I bet he has a decent year next year.

Less than 1%?..... Wow I think that's way too low. I apparently it is time-weighted so more recent results count more. I saw 2 years but I see so done here said 3 years?

Anyone willing to spec on odds of major 2012 POTY award. I said 4 to 1

I would take Natalie Gulbis if she were willing to lay it.

Haven't you learned people in the golf forum aren't ignorant enough to take any of your stupid bets? 25-1 that you get down to scratch when anybody can fake a handicap? Better than even odds on Europe when they were significantly favored?

Tell you what, how about we all go out back, we'll give you half all our money, you can kick us in the nuts, and we'll call it a day? It would save a lot of time and server space.

BO

Who are you and why do you troll every thread? Everyone else is saying something quite constructive. Do you even play golf? or poker for that matter.

Maybe I don't understand the math perfectly but I don't think Tiger will play enough events to be #1 even if he has a year like 2005 which I think is the high end of his possible range. I think the odds of him going out and winning 10 tournaments and 3 majors are >> 100-1 which is about my guess as to what he need to accomplish to be world #1 by end of 2012 with a 15-17 tournament schedule.

I would think the odds are much more like single digit to 1 for him to be world #1 by end of 2013. However, there's a good chance his putter is never coming all the way back and while he may get to, and stay at, #1 it will be much more of a grind than in the days when he was farther ahead of #2 than #2 was ahead of #250.

Going to be hard for him to have a year like 2005, not solely because he hasnt won for so long etc but because the competition is so much better at the minute. There are alot of golfers out there at the minute that could give Tiger (even at his peak) a good run for his money.

No chance he will return to the worlds number #! in that timespan... He prolly will win at least 1 major this upcoming year but he doesnt play enough golf to return to the #1 spot in that timeframe

You think he probably will eh? So greater than 50/50, therefore I'll take 3-1 he fails to win a major in 2012.

BO