I think NtnBO is taking this into account with 99% figure, ie 99% of 30 year old healthy males with no time commitments still wont get to +2 or +3. That I would agree with. My ceiling is probably a 15 handicap for instance, but I am very untalented at golf as anyone can vouch for having played with me.

I don't think I have the natural talent to knock off more than another 2-3 strokes no matter how much I put into it. I just haven't had much of a short game ever and I played my first round of golf when I was 7 or 8 years old. I started hitting balls when I was 2 or so with a 7 iron my dad cut down to toddler size. So I've been swinging clubs for just about 40 years now.

I think I've got a good feel for what my ceiling is.

I just don't buy it. I play with a lot of buddies in their late 20s early 30s and 100% of the time lack of practice and\or instruction is the main thing really holding them back. I have one golf buddy out of maybe 50 or 60 that I think could never be great even if he worked at it.

I think people on this site are dramatically underrating the value of specific, regimented, practice and coaching

Have you ever at any point in your life practiced chipping or putting for multiple hours a day over the course of a week?

When I was 12 and 13 I spent those summers getting dropped off with $5 at the military base course at 7am and picked up at 5pm four or five days a week. That was 40-50 hours a week to kill on the course. I would play 27-36 holes per day at a pace of 3 hours per round, range balls were $.25 a bucket, and my lunch and sodas cost me about $3. I spent hours each day putting and chipping.

I played junior tournaments all over the state and saw what good short games look like. I just don't have the talent to go low. I can hit 15-18 greens in regulation when I play well but scoring is a problem. I have never had more than five birdies in a round though I've had five more times than I can count.

Meh.

I think a reasonable % of people can shoot par on their home course. But being a legit +3 is something that requires more than just tons of practice/coaching. I def agree with NtnBo.

I can use myself as a fairly decent test case. Prior to screwing up my back and putting on a bunch of weight I was a really athletic person through high school and college. Dropped baseball and football to play golf. I played golf in high school everyday for 2.5 years. Could shoot mid-high 70's on my home course, low 80's most others. Got more into practice/lessons in college, got my handicap down to legit single digits, but could never even get close to breaking par on a regular basis, even on familiar courses.

I don't really know how to rank myself on a scale of natural athletic ability, but I'd be shocked if I wasn't in the top 10% for generic abilities like hand eye coordination, balance, etc. And I had basically no shot of ever being that good.

If we are talking a legit + on a real course there's no chance. No chance at all.

http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit....fier=id&itemid...
Fun Fact:Less than half a percent of golfers in the U.S. maintain a Handicap Index® on the plus side of Scratch.

First off this Dan guy is doing specific regimented practice with coaching and he's not making a ton of progress.

I think your underestimating what it feels like to not be able to swing a golf club well. Everything just feels foriegn and jerky and your body is never doing what you think it is. Some people just dont have a good feeling over how to get their body to do what they want. After 700 hours of practice and 6 month of practice as well as a ton of coaching I was struggling to break 130. No joke! At least now I have gotten it down to reasonable scores (like 90s and 100s but still). Now if I do get past a 15 handicap im going to be thrilled believe me, but im not holding my breath. It just I rank probably bottom 1% on natural athletic ability.

Don't feel sorry for me, I've got a genius IQ and a +6 handicap. Although I'm not smart enough to know what a 'frog in a well' is, and certainly not smart enough to google it.

Well, we can certainly agree to disagree. But IMNSHO, >50% is ludicrous. I don't think you understand the innate abilities one has to have, to even have the potential of being a +2 or +3. It's no different than football or basketball, most of the time desire and work ethic just isn't enough. Frustrating and sad in a way, but true.

BO

We've seen your super talented move.

Nitbo just wants to consider himself super elite. The kids i knew that got really good... at some poont just put ina ton of time. They started the same place as everyone else though.

popcorn for dagolfdoc's TR today

(from Dan's webpage, I get the feeling this guy's behind the bell curve and his own projections)

Obviously the board's consensus is in your corner. I still think the limiting factor for people who try and fail is more likely to be discipline and willingness to be regimented and focus on the monotonous as opposed to physical talent or emotional\course management issues that couldn't be overcome with practice. Maybe I am wrong.

I think one of the key things that people who think lots of people can be + get wrong is the golf course. And I don't mean the difficulty.

Lots of people play the same course for 80% of their rounds. Like me. I am a member at a club and play the vast majority of my rounds there. I am a pretty solid +1 with little to no practice on my home course scores only. In reality I am probably like a legit 2 if I was playing somewhere different everyday.

So I think people can get it in their head "hell, Joe Blow shoots 72 every weekend and never practices, I bet if he tried he could play on Tour." But take Joe off his home track and things look a lot different.

jeezus,Every thread turns into BO speculating that he's better than the 99%

b4 u post, ask yourself, "how is this relevant to the OP?"

still waiting for TR

Hey Ebarnet

Well there's not some requirement that you don't play the same course when you get into + handicap is there? I wasn't talking about the guy being able to travel and shoot 69-70 anywhere, just get an index that low from practicing and playing the same place.

exactly what i thought when i read it

So, I met Dan yesterday and we spent a very enjoyable day on the course - before I get into his round, I think I should clarify a few things about his goal/practice. I asked him a lot of questions about the plan and many of his answers surprised me. His overall goal (although it may be listed as so on his site) is NOT to get on the PGA tour - he said obviously, that would be awesome, but the goal is to see how good he can become. I can live with that goal - to reach his potential through practice/training. He works 6 days/week for min of 6 hours/day - works with his instructor, Chris Smith (a top 100 teacher), fitness trainer, and a mental/spiritual/meditation coach weekly. He discussed how Chris started him with putting for almost 8 months, then moved to short chips, etc - while I might not agree 100% with this method, Dan bought into it and did everything that was asked and never "cheated" - he just putted away. Dan said he didn't play many sports growing up, just a little tennis, he's about 5'9 and slender, in very good shape. He explained that when he decided to do the plan, he chose golf because he thought it would be the best sport to try an experiment, and he felt he could really enjoy the game. Before I get onto the round, I'll say Dan is a very nice, genuine guy, and we will definitely play several more rounds while he's in Atlanta. He knows the criticism he gets, and it rolls off his back - he's really just committing to a sport 100% and just wants to see if he can reach his potential.

I watched Dan warm up, and my first thought was that his swing was much better than a normal adult who has only been playing for 20 months, and only swinging a club for 12 months. It's a little loose, and not perfect, but it's athletic and his fundamentals are very sound. The weather was low 50's and pretty windy, and Dan struggled a little throughout the round - probably shot mid-low 90's. I didn't see the final score, but he putted everything out, and played by the rules. This was his first round with a full set of clubs - he started hitting a driver in November, and until yesterday, had only hit driver, 6-iron, 8-iron, wedges & putter - he had a new set of clubs (Nike blades), and had never hit them, so he wasn't sure about the distance of most clubs. He mentioned he had never played anywhere except Oregon, so the grass in Atlanta felt different to him - I thought that was a unique statement, as many people might not notice that difference. He also mentioned it was the first round he'd played in a cart - he walks exclusively in Oregon, and found he had to take several clubs with him to a shot. After the round we sat in the men's grill and had a drink & discussed his game (fwiw, I had a beer, he drank diet coke). He asked what I thought about his progress and game, and I answered honestly - basically I saw a player who was pretty advanced for only playing a short time. While his score didn't reflect it, he only had two shots that were poorly hit - one topped drive and one thin 3 wood (the first time he had ever hit it). His misses were more directional - some flares to the left (he's a lefty), and a couple hooks. His wedge swing is really, really good fundamentally - watching him swing a wedge is similar to a low single digit player - his distance control with the wedges wasn't perfect, but the motion is really solid. The biggest thing I noticed was that he doesn't have many of the problems most beginners have - he doesn't flip at the ball through impact, and he rarely has poor contact with the ball - mainly directional problems, which are much easier to fix. He said he is working on squaring the face & solid contact, both of which will help him improve. He is 2300 hours into his project and said he'd like to be a mid-single digit by the end of 2012, which I think is realistic based on where he is now, then try to shave shots off little-by-little. His length is decent, not long, but it can improve (8-iron 145-150 in decent weather, and driver was adequate - prob around 240-250 yesterday).

We played with a 5 hdcp, and a 13 hdcp as well - Dan out-played the 13 by a mile - he hit is so much better than him, but there was a big difference in accuracy between the 5 & Dan. The highlight of the round was on 17 - a 205 par 3 with water along the left side - Dan pushed a 5 wood well left of the water and found the ball in a muddy downhill lie - he hit a great pitch to 15 feet above the hole, and canned the putt to close the match! (Dan & I won $15- Yeah!).

Overall, I was very impressed with several areas of Dan's game - his attitude is great, he is definitely NOT the person or player I expected. Is he going to be on the PGA Tour - no, is he going to be a +3, doubtful, is he as good as most 12-14 hdcps who have been playing for years - absolutely, fundamentally he's probably better than many in that range. Dan didn't get much out of his round score-wise, and he could have shaved a ton of strokes if he put the driver in play (he hit his first fairway on #16), but he doesn't get frustrated or angry after a bad shot - instead tries to understand it, and goes onto the next shot. If he continues on with his schedule, I believe his direction and swing will tighten up pretty quickly. Dan is a good guy who is enjoying the challenge and learning the game. My friend asked him a great question "what happens after the 10,000th hour?" Dan said he will probably just keep practicing, that is has become part of who he is.

Overall, it was a fun day, Dan is a great guy, and he's doing a very interesting experiment. I'm looking forward to seeing how he improves over the coming months/years - April 2012 marks his 2-year anniversary of picking up the game, and while many can say he should be better at this point, I think he's pretty close to where he should be a this point. Would I have done some things different with the instruction? Sure. But he has built a pretty solid foundation with good putting fundamentals, and once he gains a little better control with the driver, his scores will certainly improve. If you take his experiment for what it's worth - a guy trying to spend his time learning a game from scratch to see if he can reach his potential, it's a pretty cool thing. I wish I could do it!

We plan on playing again in a couple weeks, so I'll post more then or answer any questions if anyone is interested.

Doc- Thanks for the great trip report. Please keep us updated after you play with him again.

I didn't know he spent the first 8 months putting. That would be mind-numbingly boring. I also don't see how that would be optimal.

Next time you play with him point him in the direction of this site. Would be neat to have him do a well if he has some extra time (I doubt he does).

Nice report Doc! You didn't comment on his putting or short game at all, how was that?

I didn't know much about this guy before this thread, I may have read a short article about his goal before, but isn't this

going to be a major obstacle? Do you think he is capable of generating the speed necessary to play courses from the back tees? Maybe his goal is to become as good as he can from the whites, IDK.

Thanks for the update doc.

Nice report Doc. The one thing I don't understand is I thought the guy basically quit his job for this and had enough savings to last the 6 years or whatever. If his goal is not to be able to play for a living, do you know what his plan is for how to support himself at the end? Does he make enough money off the website that he isn't burning through his savings? Did you not talk about that at all?

His putting stroke was really solid, speed was a little off at first, although, our greens can be pretty tricky - he made everything inside 5 feet. Very solid stroke with no wasted motion. His chipping was pretty good, he hit a couple chips that weren't great, but wet, thin bermuda in the winter isn't easy if you've never chipped off of it. Pitching motion was awesome, distance control was a little off, but the action is really good.

I don't think the length will be an issue at all - we played from 6800+ in the cold/wind, and he had a few holes where he had some longer clubs into the green, but when he hit solid drives, he was in the neighborhood of the 5 hdcp playing with us. I would think his distance will increase over the next year as well.