Taking the median stats on TOUR--

TOUR pros make 9/10 of all their 3-5' putts and about half from 8' and it obv goes down as you move further away.

So statistically, you are a HUGE dog to have < 2 putts from 8 ft+

What side do you take on the O/U on birdies at .5? Assuming no flukey short par 5s etc.

For a 10 handicap? This should and is easy money. You guys are overthinking the **** out of this.

This is one of the best "don't take the bet" arguments you can make. Dude was not playing for two years if I remember correctly. That has a way of showing up in your short game.

agree. a 10 handicap is not bad at all. And to not break 100 you have to be really really awful.
i mean to have a score of 100-105 that means you hit about 15 good shots the entire round. it would look like a caveman hacking the ball around with a tree limb. a 10 handicap should be playing a lot more decent shots even if he is forced to pick the worse of the two.

just dont make any big mental mistakes, and play within your abilities and this is easy money.

I would have two questions #1 after not playing for 2 years how often do you hit 200 shots in a day? Fatigue can be a big problem.

Second if you are an accurate driver & have a good short game this is much easier than if you are a big hitter and usually have an up and down round with a few birdies and a bunch of bogeys.

You seem to have thought out the proper strategy but leaving yourself easy chips from the rough all day is going to be tough.

There is a great underestimation of the disparity between shots for a 10 handicap.

A 10 handicaps game varies so greatly shot to shot compared to a 0, whose misses are going to be drastically tighter.

10's can still chunk and blade shots -- especially if the aforementioned fatigue settles in (which it will).

A 150 yard approach for a 10 handicap probably has an EV of like 60 feet (I'm guessing here) with the bottom of that range being 100+ feet away and off the green (avg TOUR pro is 30 ft from this distance).

10 handicaps probably scramble from a reasonable lie / angle at like 20%, which means they fail to get up and down over 90% of the time in our scenario.

Even if we are an stud on approaches, the avg pro chips a ball from < 10 yards to 3' 6". We aren't as good so our EV is probably closer to 7-8' with our floor being 10'+

Pro Average is 30% at 10'-15' putts. Even if we were as good as them, we are holing out 9% of the time.

Couple it with the pressure of not hitting loose shots and you probably get a little worse.

People itt underestimating how difficult it is to get up and down in this format. Chip and 2 putts is no given from where you'll be hitting from. No 10 I know could go out in this format and just play bogey golf

If a 10 handicap ever loses this bet they aren't a 10 handicap. **** math, **** everything else, a true 10 handicap has no reason to lose this bet. I was a 10 handicap my first 2 years of high school golf, I'd kick my own ass losing this bet. My game was not inconsistent enough to not break 100 in this scenario, no ****ing way. Math or any other alien logic can kiss my ass here, ridiculous bet, easy money, ship the loot.

Lol you could not have won this bet in high school.

Pretty sure I was reading something recently and Greg Norman said he played this format a lot and I don't think he ever broke par.

I'd take myself right now as a mystery handicap in that bet. About to head to a party where a bunch of regular golf buddies will be. Gonna propose this question and see how it goes over.

I mean let me break this down for you....

10 handicap...

you hit what half your fairways? ok that is now down to 25%

You generally hit half your greens... maybe? ok well that number is already severly hurt due to your new found innaccuracy off the tee. Shrink it down even more since you have to do it on back to back shots. You might hit 2 greens.

Oh you get up and down 1/2 the time? Not anymore. Now you will be putting from further away on average, oh and you have to make back to back putts for it to count.

As a 10 handicap you normally average 82? Everything above is at least a 1 shot penalty per hole.

Cliffs: you have not shot

^^^

What Nxt said, but even worse because a 10 handicap does not hit half his greens in reg, and he does not average 82.

Im in the no shot camp and I think people are generally focusing on the wrong part of the game. Putting is going to be brutal. You are going to have a ton of 4-8 footers in this format due to chipping or a lag getting away from you a little. In a normal round you pour a decent amount of these in and move on feeling like you played a pretty good hole. Having to make that put twice is going to be brutal. And the pressure on the second is going to really ramp up.

Also throw in a yip or two on 3 footers and shots can start to add up quickly.

I'm better than a 10 and I definitely don't hit even close to half of the fairways or greens so I think things look even worse than this. I don't think there will be many pars on the card at all. Start bringing in penalty strokes and there could be some really big numbers on the card.

It would be interesting to bet on what the biggest number on the card will be. Obviously the course matters a lot in this regard, but if there are a decent numbers of hazards or OB it seems pretty reasonable that he may find a 10 on his card at the end of the day.