Wynn Fall Classic $1600

28 players, 27 spots pay.

First hand of the 3k/6k level. I have 66k in the big blind (including the blind). There are no microstacks, but I think two other players have a similar stack to mine at a different table.

Players on my left have 300k+, about 100k, and about 150k. None are pros so I expect all of them to call a bit too narrow on hands I open shove.

Folds to Stephen Graner in the SB and he open shoves. We've played together before and generally think well of each other's game. He has an above average stack and plays very aggro on the bubble. I expect him to shove at least 70% here, probably 80% or more.

I have A6o in the big blind.

Clearly this is an immediate +cEV call (duh), but I'm not entirely convinced it's going to make me actual money in the long run. I'm roughly 56% equity depending on his exact shove frequency.

Thoughts on calling vs folding?

seems like its just a math problem, but i dont want to do it. prolly a fold

Yes and no. It's an incredibly complex math problem that would include a bunch of hard to quantify variables (ie my chances of increasing my cash if I double). To some degree, I think much more experienced tournament players than I might just have a better feel for this type of spot.

just one of those borderline spots with lots of pro and cons. i hate caling with small ace even if its very likely that i'm a slight favorite in these kind of spots so i say fold and wait for a better spot, hopefully the bubble bursts before

If a rec player shoves here its a turbo-fold. Given it is a pro that you have history with, he should be shoving almost any 2. I lean towards a "feel fold" mostly because at a tight table on the bubble you should have decent FE when folded to you.

However, just how often will Stephen fold when folded to him? If you do not expect him to pass on a bubble abuse spot often enough, you may be better off calling now.

What's the min/cash? This looks like a nice spot to double don't know how many better spots your gonna find

How important is cashing for you? I'd say folding probably increases probability of cash, but decreases probability of making real dough.

feels very close. i would lean to folding if i felt confident in my read that they players to my left will be tighter than optimal.

would probably be calling like 66+, A8o+, A6s+, KT+

I was surprised to see how much better A8o and KTo play compared to A6o. It's about 2% better for both hands.

i was pretty proud of myself lol, i had that off the top of my head, then stoved it, and everything my cutoff was was 57% vs top 70%. At first I put KJ but then I tried to imagine folding KT in game and couldn't do it hahaha.

Although calling and losing feels like lighting 3k on fire

I would just fold into the money unless you think some of the guys at your table are just horrible and give you a great chance to win it all

Zero guarantee we can just fold into the money. We may be the shortest stack in the tournament.

Graner puts people in a cage.

i prolly fold. fine either way.

What does that mean?

leaning towards a fold.

He's really good at playing poker.

Before any answer (mine at 11bb is super confident fold without even caring about sb having 32o sometimes lol and without any calc done) we need to know these things;

1) What was the avg stack at the time roughly.

2) How many people started (ie what is the total prizes) and buy in (1600 and how many).

3) Some rough idea about pay structure. Is min cash 3k or what? I didnt see anything for sure in the thread.

4) Are the others left same skill more or less or are we assuming we are better than their avg skill?

5) Did we pay for the event or did we enter with a satellite etc. Is bankroll deep enough to not care that much about the impact of cashing?


If you can answer some or all of them an answer can be calculated.


More likely the solution will be something like SB pushes real wide, even >80%, often just 100% is not even a tiny mistake for him, and hero needs to call real tight like 15% or such, without even remotely being surprised if it comes as tight as 6% or less lol with just 1 guy left to go and our stack enough to survive multiple orbits, during which landing an AA-JJ,AKs just for the hell of it (or a 10% hand with others having folded and the blinds left etc) and pushing to double and recover everything is going to happen with over 50% chance before we lose everything. Its so dramatically small chance to not cash in if we took such defensive line. Is likely a near >95% certainty by looking only for top 5 hands or pushing only if 50% of others have folded with tight 10%, obviously a far from optimal approach.


See this funny kind of effective pay result to see why i am so naturally tight so often that people are shocked. Great players can afford to wait as long as it bloody takes to get it right.

http://www.holdemresources.net/h/web...0&s9=40&s10=11

i mean, i pretty much i never beat 79o here so i prob just fold & try to lock up the manies before smashing JT in the hj or something.

obviously folding doesn't guarantee us a mf thing, except that we can't possibly bust on this hand.

but i'm just a poor five figure-aire who rocks his own dime, so cashing means a bit more to me esp since focusing more on mttz as of late.

nits gonna nit, ballers gonna call. i feel like we're crushed less often w/ KT than A6, but also maybe not (slightly) ahead as often [eg he has A2]

I would call with KJ+ A8+ 66+ or tighter. If there are dolts on your left, you gain more ev just by pushing any two into them next hand rather calling here. You can also min-raise them to death if they are bad.

Agree with calling range. However I wouldnt overestimate the number of 'first-in' spots you're gonna get. Someone capable will not fold his btn in this spot >20% of the time if the person to your left is weakish

Oh man how all you guys are in for a shock regarding how the bubble must be played (moreover the fact you have great experience and many of you on the wide side are good winners) (first in, super wide even 70-100% in later positions, the others calling super tight) if you do the real math here of what bubble of 1 person really means when your stack is not the smallest of them all and the avg stack is >3 times larger. This is why the OP must give us details to see how tight you need to be here.

In fact my initial 10-15% guess with a hint it may be 6% or less is still much wider than you need to be when calling. Pretty often it will be only some 88-AA or 77-AA,AKs,AQs.

You lose a ton of value when you call with less than 65-70% win probability because as you are, you easily have a chance to cash in that is over 90% (27/28 paid) and the equity you gain when doubling up regarding the share of the prize above the minimum cash is not at all big or as big as many may imagine (not even 60% of the min cash in fact often vs what many might see as 100% of equity rise with a double up). The core of your equity at that spot stems from the min cash, in fact. Giving this up so easily is a massive error if the avg stack is 3+ times larger or you are not the smallest stack of them all.



The problem here is that experience doesnt help. Only math does. Experience derives its tendencies from what happens in the same spot after the bubble or before . Obviously then the ranges are much wider for calling and the pushing is not 100%, but still wide enough like 60-70% etc. But the problem is also from the experience people have on how people play the bubble. Rarely the big stack pusher is 100% as they should, they probably are 70% or less because they know the caller will be like 20% anyway or so and they cant afford to lose a ton with some 72o etc. In fact you know who gains when both the 2 players pusher and caller dont play optimally here? The other players! A significant equity leaves these 2 and goes to the others each time they play very far from proper ranges. The other small stacks are happy to see hero risk it here or the SB lose a big chunk otherwise and join them in line. The medium stacks are also happy that either one is out or the other big guy takes a hit and stops covering them etc.

So people play far from proper in reality and they do not get it because the spot is so much different than other cases that make up the majority of their experience.

Also many people play for the thrill of winning final tables or top prizes regardless of the fact that if this is done without regard for the realistic expectation of your stack, you burn money, even if you think you are gutsy or heroic fighter. A healthy bankroll is what makes a healthy fighter instead.

222,300

249 started, $1455 + $145 (3% toke included)

At the time I assumed it was a standard ~3k mincash because Wynn has standard payouts. I actually make an effort not to look at the payscale because I'm trying to stay focused on poker and don't want the numbers to skew any of my thinking.

In hindsight looking at the results, it's listed on their website as $4348 with payjumps in funky places (20th, 13th) so I don't know if the posted results are off or if they just had a weird payscale for this.

I've come to the conclusion that my call was incorrect, and if the $4348 figure is correct then the mistake is magnified some. I'll be rectifying both mistakes in the future, obv.

There were some tough players remaining, but I generally think I play ok. I was probably somewhere in the 6th-12th range if you ranked all the players.

Sold half. I wouldn't say that I don't care about cashing, but it's not going to move the needle.

Is there anyone better at bubble math than Masque? Clearly, the answer is no.