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High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of high stakes MTT hands and techniques

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Old 07-09-2012, 04:00 AM   #16
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

lol at folding preflop
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:28 AM   #17
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

tought spot for sure but like most people said not folding imo
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:37 AM   #18
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

Raise>Fold>Call preflop.

As played I'm not folding...

Tight range that is spazzing out on some big draws-
Hand 0: 62.004% 58.39% 03.62% 28324 1754.00 { Qd8d }
Hand 1: 37.996% 34.38% 03.62% 16678 1754.00 { AA, JJ-99, AQs+, A9s, KQs, 87s, KQo, 87o }


Tight range that is not spazzing out on all draws
Hand 0: 60.110% 56.39% 03.72% 24007 1582.00 { Qd8d }
Hand 1: 39.890% 36.17% 03.72% 15399 1582.00 { AA, JJ-99, AKs, KQs, 87s, KQo, 87o }
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:53 AM   #19
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

Sick spot... think it comes down to feeling at the table. I know that's somewhat of a cop out, but I think it's true... you're live, you have some history with this guy, you can look at him, etc. Whatever your first instinct is that's probably correct. Against some people's ranges you're in great shape here, and against other people's ranges you're basically drawing dead. So... live read FTW IMO.

P.S. WTF on the "fold pre" advice?... we're 86bb deep overlimping in position with Q8s... I can see preferring a raise to a call (altho I think call is fine), but hand is obv playable.
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Old 07-09-2012, 05:04 AM   #20
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

You flop the 2nd nuts on a really wet board and are scared to get it in now?? Honestly I'm surprised so many are saying this is a tough spot. Without knowing much about Villain there's no way you can fold this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by betgo View Post
Fold preflop. Fold to overbet. Without read, he shouldn't be doing that with a set or combo draw. Think he has nuts and is protecting it against draws. Probably some nit afraid to be outdrawn. Don't get manipulated into playing for stacks.
If he was some nit scared to be outdrawn, he would not flat call that flop 3-handed OOP. His hand looks like some sort of combo draw that smelled weakness and wants to "take it down right now." So Villain's overbet = scared to get called, not get outdrawn.

Also, raise more on that flop.
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Old 07-09-2012, 07:00 AM   #21
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

This man has the nuts. You should fold.
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Old 07-09-2012, 11:01 AM   #22
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

The more I think about it, the more I like folding. The field is soft, villain shows up with the nuts here a lot and you are not committed in any way. I would sigh-pass and never tell a soul.
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Old 07-09-2012, 11:19 AM   #23
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

hands that are also possible:

AQ suited - this would have got raised pre imo first and foremost. if he chose to limp he would pry re-raise immediately post flop to more often than not (9/10). if he limps kq its def not kq with the royal flush draw in this spot, hes never playing it that hard if he does he cray. he would also raise kq suited pre at least some of the time pre, hes old (5/10). Also, we do have a queen guys, dont weight tooooo much on that fact but with us holding a queen, odds suggest it is less likely he is holding one to.

He could limp q8 suited. possibility of this exact combo is also a bit slimmer because its our exact hand. Old man could easily show up with this hand tho, as 78 suited

sets im def weighting 99 harder than 10 10 and im weighting JJ less than them both. Hes raising jj pre atleast (8/10), 1010 (7/10), 99(5.5/10), even old man. I think its also a strong chance he raises the initial raiser post flop at this point in time with these hands.

once u flat and the other flat, i would think he would atleast contemplate upping the action with most the hands i mentioned. Whether its the stonecold nuts or the third nuts, or huge semi-draw.

what scares me is the sizing and stacks. It is a very confident bet it seems, he is throwing out 30 bigs, but again he could have some of the hands mentioned and only one beats us. I used to make good folds but I would not fold here. In 2006 everyone was a nit, now i dont trust anyone, my eyes have been tainted by to much ****. He mite have j10, with a backdoor flush draw, throw this combo in for a measily (2%) chance???? Maybe he overbet the pot to find out where he stood???? So i call.

Last edited by p2 dog, p2; 07-09-2012 at 11:25 AM.
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Old 07-09-2012, 02:32 PM   #24
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

2nd nuts? All in.
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Old 07-09-2012, 02:55 PM   #25
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot



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Old 07-10-2012, 12:27 AM   #26
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

Pre I think iso>>limp>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>fold it's fine really

Spot is legit gross, haha. I agree with pudge&co this is the worst hand I punt it in with in wsop me in this spot, it sucks but mehhhhhhhhhhhh can't fold
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Old 07-10-2012, 02:24 AM   #27
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

tough hand, but if you are looking for honest feedback, I think you could've found a fold.
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Old 07-10-2012, 06:27 AM   #28
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

One of the few spots where physical reads can make a huge difference in your bottomline longterm results... How fast did Villain make the first call? Would likely stop to consider raising KQ at least a little bit, imo... Did he seem at all nervous making the reraise? I know it sounds silly to ask these questions, but live poker is live poker, and once you've exhausted all other forms of analysis, sometimes it's literally time to just try and soul read a guy.
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Old 07-10-2012, 06:36 AM   #29
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

One of those rare unique spots where live reads/table talk are actually extremely helpful.
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Old 07-10-2012, 05:41 PM   #30
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot

The flop call is what has me bugged. Did he have a very good reason to suspect that you would raise there? I just can't put him on KQ with that.
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