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| High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of high stakes MTT hands and techniques |
07-09-2012, 04:00 AM
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#16
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: <3 Alex Morgan RIP cutlahhhhh
Posts: 29,727
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
lol at folding preflop
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07-09-2012, 04:28 AM
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#17
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banned
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: LLSNL thread
Posts: 263
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
tought spot for sure but like most people said not folding imo
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07-09-2012, 04:37 AM
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#18
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old hand
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Tampa, Florida
Posts: 1,461
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
Raise>Fold>Call preflop.
As played I'm not folding...
Tight range that is spazzing out on some big draws-
Hand 0: 62.004% 58.39% 03.62% 28324 1754.00 { Qd8d }
Hand 1: 37.996% 34.38% 03.62% 16678 1754.00 { AA, JJ-99, AQs+, A9s, KQs, 87s, KQo, 87o }
Tight range that is not spazzing out on all draws
Hand 0: 60.110% 56.39% 03.72% 24007 1582.00 { Qd8d }
Hand 1: 39.890% 36.17% 03.72% 15399 1582.00 { AA, JJ-99, AKs, KQs, 87s, KQo, 87o }
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07-09-2012, 04:53 AM
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#19
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enthusiast
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 87
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
Sick spot... think it comes down to feeling at the table. I know that's somewhat of a cop out, but I think it's true... you're live, you have some history with this guy, you can look at him, etc. Whatever your first instinct is that's probably correct. Against some people's ranges you're in great shape here, and against other people's ranges you're basically drawing dead. So... live read FTW IMO.
P.S. WTF on the "fold pre" advice?... we're 86bb deep overlimping in position with Q8s... I can see preferring a raise to a call (altho I think call is fine), but hand is obv playable.
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07-09-2012, 05:04 AM
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#20
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journeyman
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: NYC / Amsterdam
Posts: 210
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
You flop the 2nd nuts on a really wet board and are scared to get it in now?? Honestly I'm surprised so many are saying this is a tough spot. Without knowing much about Villain there's no way you can fold this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by betgo
Fold preflop. Fold to overbet. Without read, he shouldn't be doing that with a set or combo draw. Think he has nuts and is protecting it against draws. Probably some nit afraid to be outdrawn. Don't get manipulated into playing for stacks.
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If he was some nit scared to be outdrawn, he would not flat call that flop 3-handed OOP. His hand looks like some sort of combo draw that smelled weakness and wants to "take it down right now." So Villain's overbet = scared to get called, not get outdrawn.
Also, raise more on that flop.
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07-09-2012, 07:00 AM
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#21
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journeyman
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 206
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
This man has the nuts. You should fold.
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07-09-2012, 11:01 AM
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#22
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newbie
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 25
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
The more I think about it, the more I like folding. The field is soft, villain shows up with the nuts here a lot and you are not committed in any way. I would sigh-pass and never tell a soul.
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07-09-2012, 11:19 AM
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#23
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old hand
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,536
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
hands that are also possible:
AQ suited - this would have got raised pre imo first and foremost. if he chose to limp he would pry re-raise immediately post flop to more often than not (9/10). if he limps kq its def not kq with the royal flush draw in this spot, hes never playing it that hard if he does he cray. he would also raise kq suited pre at least some of the time pre, hes old (5/10). Also, we do have a queen guys, dont weight tooooo much on that fact but with us holding a queen, odds suggest it is less likely he is holding one to.
He could limp q8 suited. possibility of this exact combo is also a bit slimmer because its our exact hand. Old man could easily show up with this hand tho, as 78 suited
sets im def weighting 99 harder than 10 10 and im weighting JJ less than them both. Hes raising jj pre atleast (8/10), 1010 (7/10), 99(5.5/10), even old man. I think its also a strong chance he raises the initial raiser post flop at this point in time with these hands.
once u flat and the other flat, i would think he would atleast contemplate upping the action with most the hands i mentioned. Whether its the stonecold nuts or the third nuts, or huge semi-draw.
what scares me is the sizing and stacks. It is a very confident bet it seems, he is throwing out 30 bigs, but again he could have some of the hands mentioned and only one beats us. I used to make good folds but I would not fold here. In 2006 everyone was a nit, now i dont trust anyone, my eyes have been tainted by to much ****. He mite have j10, with a backdoor flush draw, throw this combo in for a measily (2%) chance???? Maybe he overbet the pot to find out where he stood???? So i call.
Last edited by p2 dog, p2; 07-09-2012 at 11:25 AM.
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07-09-2012, 02:32 PM
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#24
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adept
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 900
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
2nd nuts? All in.
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07-09-2012, 02:55 PM
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#25
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newbie
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 29
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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07-10-2012, 12:27 AM
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#26
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: the nice hot tub
Posts: 6,651
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
Pre I think iso>>limp>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>fold it's fine really
Spot is legit gross, haha. I agree with pudge&co this is the worst hand I punt it in with in wsop me in this spot, it sucks but mehhhhhhhhhhhh can't fold
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07-10-2012, 02:24 AM
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#27
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newbie
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 15
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
tough hand, but if you are looking for honest feedback, I think you could've found a fold.
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07-10-2012, 06:27 AM
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#28
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journeyman
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 271
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
One of the few spots where physical reads can make a huge difference in your bottomline longterm results... How fast did Villain make the first call? Would likely stop to consider raising KQ at least a little bit, imo... Did he seem at all nervous making the reraise? I know it sounds silly to ask these questions, but live poker is live poker, and once you've exhausted all other forms of analysis, sometimes it's literally time to just try and soul read a guy.
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07-10-2012, 06:36 AM
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#29
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Guest
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
One of those rare unique spots where live reads/table talk are actually extremely helpful.
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07-10-2012, 05:41 PM
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#30
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journeyman
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Illinois, USA
Posts: 219
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Re: WSOP ME Gross Spot
The flop call is what has me bugged. Did he have a very good reason to suspect that you would raise there? I just can't put him on KQ with that.
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