So our raising range is exclusively 77?

Do mean gssfd?

What is this tangent about? 65dd is a much better hand in this situation than KJdd, so if u had a raising range that had draws (based on thinking Jesse had air sometimes), 65dd should definitely be in it before KJdd was.

Easiest spot ever to make it like 2.85 million pre and get called approximately never on the ME FT bubble and pick up like 2.2 million free chips or whatever. I only read OP so I am not as sure about player specific ranges, but SB's range is always capped here, and if the bt 3bs a wide value range then he's free money too, and generally cares about the fact that someone has to act after him, even though it's almost entirely irrelevant. Unless opener is particularly good or has a lot of heart, he probably cares way too much about the fact that two people are still behind him as well, it's just one of those huge leaks that everybody has when they start seeing monsters under the bed and talk themselves into folding.

As played, I'd usually flat against bad players, raise/get it in against good players and honestly probably just fold in this spot because of how much stronger ME FT bubble makes both players' ranges and we never have more than 40% equity against any value range that gets it in, and generally have even less than that.

I mean, it's a ****ty spot because this is basically exactly what you want to flop when you flat pre, but put these people on some realistic ranges given the situation, and your hand's really not doing that awesome. Yeah it hurts a lot when we are wrong, but I still think the best decision in a vacuum here is to fold as played. Idk about strategically and what the table is like, I might read through the rest of the thread for more info later

plus crazy bluffs, i suppose, if we were so inclined.

i think we also get it in with the three and the three, tho it's kind of a sigh, shove.

a 65dd hand is a better hand to raise with, but not to flat with to continue was my point, but yeah, it's kind of a tangent imo.

In an effort to quantify how big the ICM effects are here:

I went ahead and made it worth an extra $1.5M for winning the Main and 500k for final tabling. These numbers are obviously dependent on who the Hero is - for instance, if one of the 2 remaining women replace Hero - these numbers should be a great deal higher. I actually think these numbers are low estimates for what FTing/winning is worth even in the era of declining sponsorships, but it's probably on the right order.

Hero's ICM equity before the hand is ~$3.3M, if he doubles it's ~$4.9M(though actual $EV is higher because the bubble continues and he now has the big stack, let's say $5.2M), if he is eliminated, he gets 12th for $.6M. This means he needs to get it in as a 59% on favorite if getting laid 1-1 to break even $EV wise.

This number doesn't tell anywhere near the whole story as it is only relevant when we get our entire stack in without fold equity, so we definitely don't need to get a flop call of 3.4M chips in that good.

However, just to get an idea, 59% is often equivalent to a 5-7 people left remaining spot at normal final tables. This situation happens to occur with 12 left given we're up against another large stack and the extra $$$ coming from FT sponsorships. 59% is a moderately high number, but it's not a super extreme situation. If people remember the opening $5k WSOP that Allen Bari had a monster chip lead in last year, the middle stacks had to get it in 70% good to be +$EV with 7 people remaining.

like

$500K for FTing seems way high for an American.

yeah 500 is too high, 1.5M for winning may be on the low side though.

Cool analysis Ben but also we have position and great pot odds due to small sizing in a spot where the action 99% of the time never gets re-opened. Re-opening the action and trying to get it in here is a disaster when there are like 3 cards total that can turn that would hurt our equity if opponent is actually bluffing.

So we should never actually have to calculate our 59% equity or whatnot unless we are OOP with a more vulnerable top pair + draw. We have position!!!!!!!!111111111 This hand is a heartbreaker.

If you were in the BB my range in the SB wouldn't be capped

But ya super profound analysis squeezing atc is almost always going to be super profitable on the main event ft bubble in spots like these where you only have to worry about one player really having a hand they could felt happily.

You could say that in so many spots deep in main/live tourneys too in general. Why else do you think players like Selbst/Bryn crush so much despite mega spewing in spots? They get positively rewarded in their heads for all the good times they destroy and pick up pots aggressively that they try to win every single hand!

I mean look at fslexcduck here! Wants to fold KJdd! Wheres the fun in tourney poker if you get it in with top pair and a fd?! More fun/challenging to get people to fold or have 7 high etc.

God, I miss the tournaments. Hate every second of every hour of everyday outside of the tournaments. Hate the rio. But love playing those high variance turbo donkfests vs a bunch of idiots. Why can't there be a WSOP in the winter too?

i'd say 250k is a much more reasonable estimate for FT value, and even that's being generous.

There has to be extra value for just making the final table. It isn't all just hard cash. The semi-fame, the bragging rights, the experience and stories you can tell to your grandkids. Just having it on your resume is worth a good bit, in addition to the sponsorships.

Are we assuming flop raiser isn't flatting in the SB with low suited connectors/gappers. Because if he has a straight flush draw, we are about 82% against that. We are also maybe 60% against Adxd. Not sure SB always is a 60% or better favorite against our hand. It is really unlikely SB has 2-pair, so we are basically only worried about a set. Seems like some of the analysis is a little results oriented. It is easy to put SB on a set when we know he had a set.