Originally Posted by weirdchess1
Yeah I obviously was trying to figure out what types of flush draws he has. He's certainly less likely to raise a naked fd like 8d9d but more likely to raise Axdd (with likely overs and guaranteed best fd) or any combo draw. I expect him to play 54dd 65dd 64dd preflop when it's already multiway and likely to be 3 or 4 handed and I definitely expect him to raise a combo draw like that on the flop.
Rarely do you bluff-raise into 3 people but this might be one of the few cases it's reasonable. PFR already checked and very unlikely he's checking anything of value 4way with only one person behind. BTN can be stabbing and assuming PFR missed he only has one unknown behind (me). It's doubtful he's c/r'ing that much air but with only 6 combos of sets out there, he doesn't have to be bluffing that often for it to be profitable for me to stick it in now.
Don't think he's squeezing suited connectors or suited aces OOP when those hands play so well multiway, and with how loose he was playing I expect him to peel those out of the SB. Just a guess on my part.
Idk I kinda think its about a coin flip whether a guy w/ Jesse's description in this spot as chipleader on the ME bubble with a raise from an internet kid and call from a 60yo guy on the bu in front is going to look down at 64s or A2-9s in the Small blind and just think "ok let's call and play multiway oop". If I was in his spot I would be 3 betting A2-8s a significant portion with the possibility to 5bet shove bluff on Russell Thomas
If I were to contruct a range for him calling out of small, it would be suited connectors 54s-QJs, 88-22 (slightly discounting 88 and 77), 2 combos of A2-8s and 2 combos of A9-AJs, KJo+, QJo, AT-Jo, KTs+, QTs+, suited 1 gappers 86s+.
Now when the action goes preflop raiser checks to old guy on the button and he bets 1.5m (of his 15m stack) into 2.2, think about Jesse's r to 3.4m/f vs his r to 3.4m/c ranges. This depends a lot on Gee's bet when checked to on the button in 4 way pots frequency which for a 60 yo can range from near 100% to only sets on that board, so you would have to tell us the estimated frequency. I think his r/f range to that sizing might include a lot of naked flush draws (thinking he can't call profitably given his position and lack of implied odds, or just that turning it into a bluff is more +EV), a small amount of airballs (which I would include some A highs, gutters, maybe throw in 76 and 87). He COULD be raise/folding KQ of KJ for value with this sizing, but that is very discounted in my mind. Also wanted to note that it is quite the parlay where Steven Gee will showdown KQ that is the winner after you coldcall
Cleaning up those outs on his r/f range should not be a main concern because they collectively have his equity in the single digits AND you have implied odds on a decent portion of that range, which more than cancels out the equity given up to his 3 outers.
Now his r/c range. It may not include all the combos of sets as I could see him slowplaying those in this spot. so let's say 4 out of the 6 combos of sets raise/call here. It probably does not include all the combos of nut flush draws either if he thinks he has a decent chance of showing down an A high winner against Steven Gee. Also he is probably raise/calling off to Steven Gee w/ some hands that he now may fold to your 3bet (given your image), namely nut flush draws and combo-gutter draws. Now if you think your image is tight enough that you can sell [33,77, K7s] with no bluffs, he may fold (or just call which is more likely with the direct odds he will have) the those draws in this range, that could be an argument for raising. BUT paradoxically it would be an argument for raise/folding for value, which is not as crazy as it sounds btw if you seriously consider it, and it may very well be the correct play. It would mostly depend on your implied odds when you have a better flush draw if you coldcall.
Does he have any r/f to Steven Gee, but 4bet shove vs your 3bet range? I obv can't say, but with the description of images given and the stage Jesse is on it would take some nuts the size of basketballs to do that. With his 'r/4bet shove vs you for value' range being 4 combos in my estimation, it wouldnt only take 2 combos of that to make r/c better than coldcalling.
The only other frequency that could make this a raise is the % of the time you will get blown off the best hand on the turn or river. But if you were already going to raise/call, you would have to think Jesse bluffs the turn or river with less combos than he bluff 4bet shoves the flop with. Which I put at almost 0%. Again this would be an argument for raise/folding if you thought you might fold the turn or river