i was talking this over with a friend of mine and i think we agreed that because of ICM considerations (the shortness of the two women left) and the nature of the hand, that fold > flat >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> raise in this scenario. there is almost no scenario in which we get all the money in and are a favorite.

i also highly disagree that there are many airballs or combo flush draws in his range, the same ICM rules apply to him in this scenario and if gee is active, then he has to know that everyone else knows that as well. i think continuing with the hand is very marginal in the best case scenario, and we can afford to fold this hand and not feel too bad about it.

also my buddy played live cash with him at the bellagio and said he was pretty nitty in general, fwiw.

scotty, also want to say it was a pleasure to meet you and stay with you guys in the house before i write this, i only write out of love!!!!!!!!!!

but yeah, "taking a stand" is rarely a good reason to make almost any decision in poker, because the player in question might be just setting you up for precisely that kind of instinctual reaction. i also think that the hand of top pair fd absolute value wise looks a lot better than it actually is in this scenario, so there's some sort of psychological component to it. even if you are a coinflip against his c/r range, it doesn't make sense to go to war with your hand situationally.

i know you may discount this because i'm a huge nit and am willing to fold whenever i can, but from my perspective and experience, i think that playing too aggressively (getting into 3b/4b/5b wars with others) doesn't necessarily pan out too well in the end and can get those people in bigger trouble...if the "nits" actually wait for bonecrushing hands instead of marginal spots.

his fold was precisely with 3 players left with 4.1/6.1/12 being the payouts. he had binger covered so if jamie did knock both of them out he would've gotten 2nd. he thought that it was very likely jamie was doing this with a drawy type hand, and so put Axss in a lot of his range. not sure what i'd do in this spot but it was definitely pretty sick.

Idk I kinda think its about a coin flip whether a guy w/ Jesse's description in this spot as chipleader on the ME bubble with a raise from an internet kid and call from a 60yo guy on the bu in front is going to look down at 64s or A2-9s in the Small blind and just think "ok let's call and play multiway oop". If I was in his spot I would be 3 betting A2-8s a significant portion with the possibility to 5bet shove bluff on Russell Thomas

If I were to contruct a range for him calling out of small, it would be suited connectors 54s-QJs, 88-22 (slightly discounting 88 and 77), 2 combos of A2-8s and 2 combos of A9-AJs, KJo+, QJo, AT-Jo, KTs+, QTs+, suited 1 gappers 86s+.

Now when the action goes preflop raiser checks to old guy on the button and he bets 1.5m (of his 15m stack) into 2.2, think about Jesse's r to 3.4m/f vs his r to 3.4m/c ranges. This depends a lot on Gee's bet when checked to on the button in 4 way pots frequency which for a 60 yo can range from near 100% to only sets on that board, so you would have to tell us the estimated frequency. I think his r/f range to that sizing might include a lot of naked flush draws (thinking he can't call profitably given his position and lack of implied odds, or just that turning it into a bluff is more +EV), a small amount of airballs (which I would include some A highs, gutters, maybe throw in 76 and 87). He COULD be raise/folding KQ of KJ for value with this sizing, but that is very discounted in my mind. Also wanted to note that it is quite the parlay where Steven Gee will showdown KQ that is the winner after you coldcall

Cleaning up those outs on his r/f range should not be a main concern because they collectively have his equity in the single digits AND you have implied odds on a decent portion of that range, which more than cancels out the equity given up to his 3 outers.

Now his r/c range. It may not include all the combos of sets as I could see him slowplaying those in this spot. so let's say 4 out of the 6 combos of sets raise/call here. It probably does not include all the combos of nut flush draws either if he thinks he has a decent chance of showing down an A high winner against Steven Gee. Also he is probably raise/calling off to Steven Gee w/ some hands that he now may fold to your 3bet (given your image), namely nut flush draws and combo-gutter draws. Now if you think your image is tight enough that you can sell [33,77, K7s] with no bluffs, he may fold (or just call which is more likely with the direct odds he will have) the those draws in this range, that could be an argument for raising. BUT paradoxically it would be an argument for raise/folding for value, which is not as crazy as it sounds btw if you seriously consider it, and it may very well be the correct play. It would mostly depend on your implied odds when you have a better flush draw if you coldcall.

Does he have any r/f to Steven Gee, but 4bet shove vs your 3bet range? I obv can't say, but with the description of images given and the stage Jesse is on it would take some nuts the size of basketballs to do that. With his 'r/4bet shove vs you for value' range being 4 combos in my estimation, it wouldnt only take 2 combos of that to make r/c better than coldcalling.

The only other frequency that could make this a raise is the % of the time you will get blown off the best hand on the turn or river. But if you were already going to raise/call, you would have to think Jesse bluffs the turn or river with less combos than he bluff 4bet shoves the flop with. Which I put at almost 0%. Again this would be an argument for raise/folding if you thought you might fold the turn or river

gl folding this in game on your 7th day of the main event with 12 left.

Cliffs: call>raise/fold(lol)>>>>>>>>>>>>>>raise/call

with fold possibly being anywhere on that spectrum depending on frequencies

^^^^^

In game most of us would have just done what Abrams did imo

What? There's no way raise/fold is better than raise/call.

yeah i was replying to technologic. flatting flop seems most optimal

That was more for the shock value than anything b/c coldcall is better than both but depending on what Slyvia expects our range to be 3betting this flop if it doesn't include KJdd (which a lot of people are saying is a fold). Say Slyvia has 65dd or A5dd and its 3.4m back to him. There is only 1 combo draw possible if he has A4-6dd. He could think we are folding nut diamond draws in this spot (A guy we both bought action from did fold ATdd in a similar spot on the FT bubble this summer). He would be getting 4 to 1 odds with our range being [33,77] and no fold equity and us having 13mill behind. He is going to peel not just jam it in. So his 4betshove range could actually be [33,77] in this spot. Under that set of circumstances its better to raise/fold. And thats without getting into ICM plus the added equity of Nov. 9 tightening everyone's ranges.

OBV nobody good ever raise/fold in game because you would have to be nearly sure he thinks you have an extremely tight range

as someone who nitted his way to the final table, i think i'm qualified to suggest something that outlandish.

I think our hand could not possibly be more face up if we call. What other hands are we ever coldcalling the raise with here other than top pair with a flush draw? That may or may not be a good enough reason not to do it, but it's a factor that should be seriously considered IMO.

I don't like flatting the flop at all. I don't think it looks nearly as scary as some are making it out to be. After flatting the flop, we often only win the hand if a nonpaired diamond comes off on the turn, regardless of what he has. And if he actually bets a nonpaired diamond I wouldn't feel so hot about it either.

I'd choose between 3-bet and folding the flop, and I'd be fist pump 3-betting against this Villain given history.

I wasn't following that closely, but I doubt this was the case and don't buy it quite frankly.

This is the best argument for calling the flop. I just don't think it's the case. Villain can easily fire a committing turn bet, and the odds we commit on a brick turn are tiny.

Given what I've said, the best line might actually be call down, but I think I couldn't handle calling down in this spot psychologically and being wrong, sticking in an average final table stack drawing near dead on the turn and river. Getting it in on the flop is never going to be that bad and won't keep me up at night for years.

To wrap up:

For sickest sickos who aren't going to fold after flop too much, even though they are going to stick it in with no equity pretty often:

Call > Raise > Fold

For average sickos who can get it in on flop, but probably sigh fold too much if they call:

Raise > Fold > Call

For nits who would fold to a flop 4-bet:

Fold > Call > Raise

33? Axhh? Calling def doesn't scream Kxhh to me.