Just want to hear Todd Terry say fold KJdd on a 3d 7d Kh flop

Weird spot, not sure what I'd do. Thought it was interesting.

In the last hand of Level 33, Russell Thomas opened for 500,000 from the cutoff and got no less than three callers — Steven Gee (button), Jesse Sylvia (small blind), and Scott Abrams (big blind).
The flop came K 7 3 , and when it checked around to Gee, he bet 1.45 million. Sylvia then raised to 3.4 million from the small blind, and after a pause Abrams reraised to 7 million total.

15 mill stacks eff, sylvia covers.


Lets say the guy is a bad poker player, and is c/ring KT-KQos and suited 100% of the time, is making it 7million/calling off profitable?

At what % of the time is this exact player c/ring Kx for those following updates/at table?

What % of time does he have to be doing that for the 3bet to be profitable?

Can we ever call in position I think calling might be best at first thought, but could easily see folding be best. We are flipping vs the obv value range of 77-33 if you include Axdd...you could easily bluff the KQ/KJ by flatting if he gives up cuz he obv will give up in the MAIN EVENT, don't need to 3b flop to bluff.

I just find it hard to believe the guys sick enough to be c/ring Axdd to get it in on FT bubble on this texture, but if he is, can you throw that in too?

Also, not trying to needle weirdchess1 cuz I'm pretty sure he's a 2p2er, really tough/weird spot, and I could see myself just playing it how he did in the heat of the moment...just think its a weird hand. And I'm sure its spoiled/everyone knows so I'll just include link anyway.

http://www.pokernews.com/live-report...hips.39080.htm

I read this hand before and wanted to start a thread about it as well.

I thought about it for a while and as we don't know anything about Sylvia's play I think we can't just give up on that flop. Calling is best, imo. It looks incredibly strong and will slow down all of Sylvia's bluffs on the turn imo. When he fires big on the turn, we can pretty easily release our hand and feel happy about it, unimproved.

while sweating updates was thinking call flop too

if assume he will raise all k's tho, have to assume that he may play fds aggressively as well

in game ofc this is unlikely as it's THE FREAKING BUBBLE OF THE ME FINAL TABLE

so call flop and fold turns look to me. sometimes he will slow down, sometimes he will have bluff? and our flop call ofc looks v strong

raise anything but bluff seem bad as default

not saying is good spot for bluff

You are a young'n so no live experience so gonna have to correct you on this one.

Your assumption that if he will raise all k's but play fds aggressively is wayyyy off.

There are soooo many terrible live players/pros that will c/r KT-KQ/even 88-QQ here /78s at extremely high frequencies, but would never in a million years c/r a flush draw.

When you finally do start playing a lot of live poker, you need to learn to not give your opponents even a small amount of credit

Obviously call flop/fold turn sounds right but when deciding between calling/folding flop I'm interested into the math/combinations/c/r frequency of the nonset parts of his range that would make it profitable.

Would be sick if he had 333 instead of 777 n maybe could hero fold

i was there watchin/sweatin for a bit. sylvia had just doubled up like an hour ago and had been playin a ton of pots. he seemed to be tryin to run the table over a bit so i think its reasonable that he's bluff raising this board some % of the time. i initially thought call was best but i really cant decide what i like best. all options seem close

also sylvia can have 54dd 65dd 64dd here right?

What kind of hands do you think he is bluff raising on this texture vs a guy that bet into 3 people? No way he can have air any reasonable % of time.

If he c/rs all of the nfd diamonds and gutter with diamonds 100% of time we are baaaarely ahead of his range. And that is the best case scenario for our hand, and he isn't shoving those nearly 100% of the time....so our MOST OPTIMISTIC is 53-46.

This still doesn't rule out the top pair hands we can bluff....but in that case calling in position can bluff those and also if we call we definitely get more value out of diamonds...(people don't fold flushes even if your hand is faceup pretty much as KdXd.)

I'm still curious how often he has to be c/ring KT-KQ folding to a 3b for the play to be 3b if his range is just that and sets....(no diamonds) then what the % is if you include diamonds...**** even if he c/rd diamonds without a plan i don't think he has stones (idiocy) to 4b shove on the bubble vs cold 3b.

Equity Wins Ties
KdJd 53.55% 9,012 0
Ad*d, 5d6d, 4d5d, 4d6d, 77, 33 46.45% 7,818 0

im just sayin i think its possible that he can be c/r with like something like 7x, a3 or 55 66 and just trying to take it down bc its the bubble of the ft for the main event. he was going out of his way to try and win pretty much every pot

i didnt see how many chips gee had to start the hand, i assume abt the same as almost everyone at that tbl had above average chips

Well calling has to be better even if he is doing that, cuz those hands have super low equity, are not gonna try to barrel us off (or we can make a read still v unlikely)

also i mean gee could just be takin a stab after the pfr checks with hands he cant continue with to c/r so i def think sylvia can have hands other then sets/ combo draws.

He called out of the SB, have to discount a lot of the nonpairs in that range like 64s and and A2-9s. think he would 3 bet or fold a lot of them. but then again 77 could be discounted as well because he might 3 bet it.

I think you have to just call, reevaluate turn w/ 12 left in the main

I think the FT bubble is so close to a satellite that playable stacks should pretty much be folding (or in this case, call/fold turn) everything close. Even without the endorsement value and so on, there's going to be a three month pause that you can use to get a lot better at poker when some players won't, so your edge is objectively going to be bigger.

This is also discounting that your read of what somebody will CR on the ME bubble only has to be a little bit wrong to change the play from okay to terrible.

I have many thoughts on this hand. Jimmyc123 has already posted many of the ideas I was thinking but I'll try to elaborate.

I don't want to needle Steve Haris but I feel this read is way off. Sylvia is a young player with internet patches, clearly playing unlike a standard live donk. He knows he wants to add fold equity to a hand like a flush draw, and he doesn't want to raise a way-ahead/way-behind hand like KQ-KT or QQ-88. Certainly possible he's c/r'ing some Kx but I wouldn't guess so; I think monsters and flush draws is a reasonable place to start guessing his c/r flop range.

This was one of the factors that led me towards 3betting. I feel I had a weak-tight image since I was relatively card dead the previous 3-4 hours and sylvia was certainly running over the table. Makes it a little more likely he's c/r'ing air and a little more likely my cold 3bet will get more respect if he somehow shows up with a marginal hand.

Yeah I obviously was trying to figure out what types of flush draws he has. He's certainly less likely to raise a naked fd like 8d9d but more likely to raise Axdd (with likely overs and guaranteed best fd) or any combo draw. I expect him to play 54dd 65dd 64dd preflop when it's already multiway and likely to be 3 or 4 handed and I definitely expect him to raise a combo draw like that on the flop.

Rarely do you bluff-raise into 3 people but this might be one of the few cases it's reasonable. PFR already checked and very unlikely he's checking anything of value 4way with only one person behind. BTN can be stabbing and assuming PFR missed he only has one unknown behind (me). It's doubtful he's c/r'ing that much air but with only 6 combos of sets out there, he doesn't have to be bluffing that often for it to be profitable for me to stick it in now.

Don't think he's squeezing suited connectors or suited aces OOP when those hands play so well multiway, and with how loose he was playing I expect him to peel those out of the SB. Just a guess on my part.

Cold-calling is certainly reasonable and I think it's close, but two small reasons I decided to 3bet:
1) To kick out BTN or SB if either of them have KQ. I think BTN may peel KQ to a c/r and cold-call but certainly not to a c/r and 3bet. Small chance SB was looking for thin value with KQ by c/r'ing but I doubt he can call the cold 3bet with that hand.
2) To kick out SB's outs if he has any air. Might be a naked gutter, pocket pair, Ax etc that has 2-3 outs against me. Very small difference but kicking out those few outs is worth several hundred thousand chips in an already bloated pot.

P.S. effective stacks were about 19M. Probably makes my jam much worse than if I only have 15M

P.P.S. I'm exhausted and somewhat drunk, I hope this whole post makes sense and isn't too embarassing.

Also adanthar's comment about how bubbly it is near the final 9 is very applicable. Of course that's a huge factor. But it just seems so incredibly nitty to call flop and re-evaluate (planning to fold?) turn with KJdd on K73dd. Adding in I was already getting shoved around by the rest of the table and I knew I couldn't just blind down into nothing, this seemed like the best place to take a stand against good players that are trying to bully me.