Thanks for posting this hand. It's fun to analyze hands this deep in the main event. First I want to say congrats on a deep run and second whether this was a mistake or not don't worry about it too much because you got it in with a pair for 15bb to late position raises. It's not that bad.

I would have folded here unless you had very specific reads about the players. I was in the BB in one tournament with 11bb and A8o. 6 handed, UTG raise, UTG+1 3b. I cold 4b shoved. The 3bettor was chip leader in tournament, looked like a kid who would 3b very wide and I just believed I was way ahead of his range. He calls off with J4o and I hold. My point is, in that spot the position of the villains were much less favorable. My stack had even less fold equity. But I went with my gut and was rewarded. If you won your flip you probably would not have posted the hand.

The reasons I would fold in that spot are
* 33 only has 50% equity against a very wide range. E.g, if SB 3bets 80% of hands, you still only have close to 50% equity. Hands like A8 and 66 have closer to 60% equity.
* You have a lot of chips. 15bb is plenty in a tournament. It's almost a magical stack size because you can reshove on people who are opening a lot of hands and they will fold the majority of the time. With 10bb, they are going to call a very high % of time. When you shove 15bb, they will fold their A2-A5, suited connectors, 22-33, and if you have a tight image even stronger hands.
* When I think about ICM, I never think about the immediate payout jumps. I think about very close to a final table, the pay jumps are huge. You don't want to put yourself in a position where you bust 50% of the time very often. It's better to reshove and create spots where you win the hand more like 80% of the time because V fold to shove 70% of the time and even when you are called you win 30% of the time.

Once again, great job getting that deep in the tournament.

Think of it this way: we're getting all in against a hand in the bottom of villian's range*, and we're actually an underdog (~48.5% to win). With all the dead money out there, we need to be 44% to win. So while this was +EV against villian's exact hand, it was not crushing it, and when you account for the times button or SB actually has a bigger pair, I can't see this play being +EV in the long run.

*Obviously, we are actually in better shape versus stronger hands, such as offsuit broadway cards.

I see your point. I just don't think SB has an overpair a high enough percentage of the time to make it an "obvious fold" I just think the decision is a lot closer than easy fold. I just think it's a good spot to go for it while he still has enough chips to where a double up puts him in a good position as opposed to waiting for a better spot and having a significantly smaller stack at that point.

i once i had 550k from 30k start stack in wsop australia and did not cash lol. the shortest stacks at the ft didn't even have that

qft
Every time ebet posts in HSMTT everyone should pay close attention, dude is usually right and says a lot of stuff other people don't want to or don't think to say

shoving here is horrific.....you realize that SB cannot fold right? This is just insinerating money. If you started the hand with 4m or so this has a lot more merit.

Good run and congrats on the score. Instead of thinking about 33 as "normally a flip", it's more useful to try to come up with an actual percentage versus his 3bet range. It depends on the player, but I'd guess somewhere in the low 40s.

The push is about cEV even with pot odds. Problem is there are ICM issues, as you can fold and move up in places. Plus you should have profitable open push and reshove spots, so no need to gamble here.

There's always a time where you have to go all in with a small pocket pair. Or fold. It's a tough spot, maybe if you would have waited for an ACE then go all in the guy would still call. However 33 isn't that bad. It's a made ****ing hand. It's just un lucky. I would do the same.

3.5mill i like it.
2.5mill easy fold
This would be a lot more interesting with a hand like KJs if he s as wide as you say he is.

However this deep in a very slow structured tournament, where you still have a decent stack, i would be folding a lot.

Fyi if ever you wanna be a true boss, snap make it 1.8mill with your big chips and leave behind a big ish looking stack. If you just moved to table or if villain is unaware of stacks then it will work a lot more

Originally Posted by ebet33
Sorry to troll but how are u gonna punt this hard so deep in the Main? You have so long to find a good Spot to double. Biggest mistake mtters make is going full ****** mode at 8-15bb imo

You wanna be hella solid w this stack and take your easy Lp open shove spots that are obvious.

Also to cold 4 w no fold equity you wanna have an advantage vs sb 3b range. Not choose a hand that is just straight crushed from range perspective.



Originally posted by jimbobwe00
qft
Every time ebet posts in HSMTT everyone should pay close attention, dude is usually right and says a lot of stuff other people don't want to or don't think to say



+1.
The main issue here is that you can find a better spot.

15bb is an ideal stack to reshove over people who open wide--you've got great fold equity.

You either want fold equity OR a hand that has more than 40% equity.

You don't need to focus on doubling up, especially in a race where you are behind. If you shove over a wide raiser with 15bb, you increase your stack by 4.5-5bb...33%! If you survive another orbit, you can shove over a wide raiser with 18bb, and if you get a fold, now you're up to 23bb (and an increase of 25%). Now you have enough to open-raise and build up further. Your risk-reward is hugely better, and while you are patiently rebuilding, you might hit a real hand.

Esp in a slow structure like the Main, this is imo a better strategy than grabbing at a situation with zero fold equity and only 40%(ish) equity--you just don't need to take such a big risk for such a low reward when your opportunity cost is so huge and your other opportunities are so plentiful. I do think this is "tournament thinking" as opposed to "cash thinking."

BRAVO on getting so deep in Main! HUGE achievement! A lot to be proud of!

hard to get a lot of fold equity w/o at least 18-20+bbs
so we just get called wide and crushed

Massive punt

mtts are dead

Did you think you had some fold equity? Cause normally people who 3bet fairly large don't fold to a 16bb shove. Thinking you're ahead of any sort of remotely reasonable 3bet range with 33 seems weird also, plus the btn could have something. Calling and getting it in on good flops would be better. But not good. Throw your hand away.

in OPS defense, sb 3bettor was Thomas Cannuli.

Dumb enough to fall for choice center, but clearly not dumb enough to 3bet/fold any of his range getting this price.

Nice kid though.

Also, not bitter at all SERIOUSLY