Just before dinner break. BB 300 with an ante. We both have around 70k and have been active but neither of us have been out of line.

She opens to 800 in the hijack. I make it 2400 in cutoff with black AA. She calls. Heads up. Flop 552dd. She checks. I bet 2500. She makes it 5400 I call.

Turn Qd. She bets 10k.

Thoughts?

Snapfold

What range do you have her on by the turn?

I have played against Kathy a few times and she tends to be pretty TAG. In this spot, I would believe her. KK is about all you beat now.

Probably just steer clear of a sicko/wizard like her...altho AA can probably be played profitably. I'd bet smaller (1850) otf...as played u prob don't have to cont ott here without a diamond (prob safe to assume she doesn't have enuf/any bluffs.)

Sick brag about having sat with #lololdschooltvpro who prob had a ~5% ROI back before electricity...

Pre is fine. Flop is fine. Turn is a fold, as there are probably zero hands in her range that she's betting for value that we're ahead of. And what bluffs would she even have here?

So mostly what erc007 said.

its not really a snapfold lmao...

you can think about it for a second and think what she has or got.

i think it is too tight and nitty to fold on the turn

would bet smaller on the flop, as played u can call turn fold river. you still have near the top of your range for preflop and flop where u need to bluffcatch and i dont think she's gonna pile 25k on rivers as a bluff.

Ok, so what hands does she have on the turn that she c/r flop and leads turn that we're ahead of? Is she just flatting a 3-bet pre with KK? Is she taking this line with any worse pocket pair?

And what hands is she bluffing flop with and firing turn that she calls a 3-bet pre with?

If we're calling turn here, are we calling brick rivers if she fires again?

I get that we don't want to overfold, but we're going to have big pairs with diamonds in them that can continue so we don't need to call all of them.

But what if she lurks hsmtt and has seen all of OP's monkey hand histories and knows hes typical full of **** and clicking buttons. Now what?

Much more pre
Much smaller otf

This

It sucks because you only really lose to 22/55 on the flop and I don't think quads raises right away, maybe she peels 75/65/54s and A5s? But there's only Ah5h. I think when the flushdraw comes in we can just fold though. Even from a theoretical perspective we have QQ, flushes, overpairs with diamonds that are all better hands than black AA here.

I prefer a bit more pre (2600-3300) but in position it's not a huge deal, I don't mind the flop size too much either this deep with a range advantage, though betting smaller is ok too. Doesn't really matter as long as you don't bet <1200 or >6k.

IDK why you feel it's necessary to bet the flop. Those cards completely whiff her raise/call range. By checking back you represent a huge 3bet/check range like 10Js ->A10/AJ... so many cards. In addition, checking the flop allows you to pot control but still get two streets of value. Checking flop and betting the later streets looks almost like bluffing.

Honestly I would have checked flop. If she leads turn I call her down.

Never checking flop. Betting flop keeps bluffs in our range (QTs etc) and all of her 77+ is never folding flop


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Vs aggro players I like that line, vs an old school live nits who aren't going to be bluffing later streets I do not like it.

Smaller otf is horrendous. Bigger is better.

Her range is inelastic to your sizing, she isn't floating JTs bdfd oop, she isn't a pair to one bet irrespective of the sizing.

To get value out of 66-QQ.

3 streets worth?

Agree w/ this obv.

Turn is interesting, i´m prob in the ´´not folding´´ camp. (guess her timing here mathers, otr also)
And checking back flop is just fps and bad, people who said this are obv results oriented.

No but she might decide to check-fold her smaller pairs on a bad turn (which can include overcards or diamonds here if, say, she has black sevens) but she is calling now.

Dude your really really far off base here. But most of it depends on your cbetting strategy on this board

pokerkat
online poker player at wsop
Rating: Multi Table Tournaments
Period Rating ITM Games ROI Profit
2017

24 / 25.5% 94 130.9% $79
2016

79 / 21.4% 370 137.2% $62
2015

73 / 21.6% 338 144.2% $67
2014

33 / 17.9% 184 47.5% $27

She is an online crusher no respekt
ROIs arent real because of rebuy/addons not counting but still strong stats.

Plus over $6M in live MTT earnings. While "old school" she is very competent and selectively aggro. Also, def. NOT her first ME.

Based on your description, the red flag goes up here. What would she call a 3-bet with pre, check-raise a paired & suited board with, and double barrel into on the turn? It just does not seem like a bluff, unless it's a very sophisticated OOP play. When that turn bet comes in, she's already put 30% of her stack in the pot and appears to be the kind of player will launch a third barrel into the river (bluffing or not). When you say that neither of you have been 'out of line' thus far, her river bet will certainly determine whether or not that holds (if not already, hence the red flag). My gut says (a) something like 3d4d / JdTd / AdQd / 45 / 56 / 57; and (b) tank fold.

On the other hand, there's a slight case to be made for calling and seeing what she bets on the river. If, at any point in prior hands, you have seen her slow down with a late check, you may want to hope for something like this and have an opportunity for a super gutsy re-bluff-shove on the river (I only say this to get exactly a one-5-in-her-hand to fold, and possible even flushes - obviously she's never folding a full house here). For an example, see Doug Polk's play with the QcTc when he was in position, had air, and made a massive bluff against two opponents. You need to keep this option on the table. In this specific situation, you would be repping QQ, obviously. It's risky, but I think might get some folds a decent amount of times in particular because this would mean her tournament life. I also bring this up because if you call her turn barrel and her hand is towards the marginal end (45 / 56 / non-nut flushes) then she faces a tough third barrel into what she will then know to be a stubborn opponent or someone holding a monster.

Very situation-dependent. When you say both have been "very active," I would need more details. Has she been targeting certain players? Has she been targeting you? Has she been playing more active from OOP? What do you think her image of you is? Is this her biggest hand thus far? Without knowing more, like I said, I'm inclined to tank fold the turn and wait for a better spot. That's a difficult spot with an over pair to a loose aggro.