Generally its not very good texture for us given all info, so its hugely depends on his preflop range and how he would proceed with it otf.
I like how you said we can barrel small and then jam(?) river as a bluff when we brick and expecting it will work often enough. I also doubt you`ll be balanced with that line on that texture on many runouts.

edit - Reevaluating today I thought I`m off and betting is clearly better, but now after doing some research I`m unsure.

Bik, post action.

Hero bets 3600 into 9K. Villain raises to 8300.

Hero?

easiest all in ever

But this was his bustout hand. Villain must have had trips, a boat, quads, or a higher flush draw.

UL you didn't win a flip or hit your 40% versus trips. What can you do, tho.

hmm weird spot imo

Gets a stiffy

Precum

Should probably say something dumb like "If ya got me, ya got me" and then shove.

Actually, "If ya got me, I'll just go play cash" works much better.

That ****s good and then jam...

yikes.

We are getting excellent odds to call. Any reason to just call now and keep some of his bluffs in that he may barrel turn with but fold to a turn checkjam? Or do we run the risk of not getting paid off when we hit taking this line?

wow thats rly rly good

Also, not taking down the pot when we miss. What are you doing on the river if he checks back and you miss?

i prefer to cbet high freq w/ smaller sizing. would like that overall strat a lot more if it was T77. a major benefit is eq denial. u have eq + playability against all def ranges w/ ur actual hand.

think it is ok/good to check everything and develop 3 ranges. i don't see myself x/f much here at all.

as played, i'd wager all of my betting discs otf (like, i guess, if i have to)

His bluffs all have 50% equity vs our hand and he might raise some pairs and fold to a jam. You c-bet small to induce lighter raises, now look as strong as possible and hope he folds some of the medium strength hands with his bluffs.

Totally agree, except you are better than 2-1 against pure bluffs.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

990 trials (Exhaustive)

board: tt7

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
9c8c	68.43%	673	9
AhQd	31.57%	308	9

I'm assuming NSB means his bluffs are semi-bluffs and have gutters, etc back doors instead of AQ which can simply call a c-bet instead of bluffing

Yeh, Js9s is 45% with gutshot, backdoor, and having you dominated. I didn't literally mean AQ. Other high cards and underpairs are about the same. Didn't think about how he could have gutshots, and that might be a lot of his raise/fold range. This board seems to miss everything, so I figured he could be raising with just overcards or a small pp.

A lot of interesting comments but if we go back to basics:
- this is a very wet/draw heavy board... and with a pair of TT!!!
- you are TAG and you say that the villain as well (I did not read much about this in the comments)

So basically (even if you have only ONE villain), you are on a flop where, being OOP, a Cbet is not suitable at all. This could be a value bet if really you could count all of your 15 outs but some might be dead outs so this is not possible.

Betting 1/3 of the pot like you did is IMO an error because whatever he has, this sizing should mean (to the villain): a value bet (with a monster TT, 77 or 7T: the only made hands who could justify a value bet) or a semi-bluff (what you have).
So whatever he has, with his stack it is easy for him to reraise you to get valuable info and know what you have with a very good level of certitude: if it is a monster, you would 4bet or even go all in, if it is a semi-bluff you most likely would just call or fold in the best case for him.

Al this taken into account, I would have just checked (and leave the door open for him to check as well) because if you bet on the flop, you should bet at least around pot size if not more to represent a made hand and kick out the draws (but not a monster, for instance a 9T) and get him to fold if he is far from anything: but given your stack and your cards, this is too risky and expensive.

On top of this, you cannot say the villain is TAG and ignore that he just "called" preflop and that he has a big stack: premium pairs and AK/AQ are unlikely, where as all hands with a T are compatible with preflop action and a reraise on your cbet.

Thanks guys, I shoved and busted to KTdd. Had 43% equity as someone pointed out.

Seems like you played it fine. You should try turning a straight flush next time.

lol, man, you play so bad, why not turn a 6 or a J?

An additional comment i want to make is that with your stack 34bb in middle position i dont think 89s is a good idea. Its time to be a bit more selective with say 5 left to act.

The other thing i want to say is that although i said that one should try to build this pot and get folds otherwise with betting, its a different story when raised at flop. Then you want to control things. Unless the player is a loose bully guy that could fold, a push is almost always locking you there to a near 40% or less all in.

If you try to avoid that vs someone that may have a decent hand here that calls you very often you will at least manage to get paid nicely when you hit and not lose a ton more if you fail to get there. Force him to bet one more time strong at turn.

Also for user12345 i didnt say shove at river if the guy showed strength before. I suggested betting hit or miss, if you were called only each time, depending on him being a careful player or calling station (then skip the last bet). The reference to monsters was only before he raised. The raise changes things. I suggested pot building for fold equity or getting paid when we hit nicely, not under severe strength of opponent conditions.

Now look. 34 bb minus 2.25 to open minus 7 to flop you still have 34-9.25=24.75. If he bets at turn anything that makes sense given your remaining hit probability you call, otherwise you fold.

So it is possible to simply get away from the hand with a significant but not lethal loss.

But i call the flop raise and i still dont see monsters always because many would exploit the trips risk TT7 flop to bluff or could themselves have a draw hoping the draw and the trips+ fear can help them with fold equity.

However to go ahead and push at flop is a mistake in my opinion. Because already the guy is likely to have a real hand here plus his own draws or exploiting the double T fear. So to go from 7bb to 32bb shove to find yourself at ~<40% or get a 7+3+7.5=17.5bb fold bonus although vs a well balanced player may still be plus EV, i think it proves inferior to the other more careful approach.


Think it this way.

If you push the guy calls you with what now? He needs to call 25bb for a pot of 71bb. He needs 35% vs our range which we can call 36% 36.5% since we are not near bubble yet to be safe.

Now if the guy sees the push done with all your draws and TX and some FH+ (but less than 50% of the time with these monsters) and maybe sometimes (risky that way) with all overpairs eg QQ-AA what does he call with?

It appears that he must eliminate all his flush draws and straight draws semibluffs that are not combo draws and call you with the usual big hands. These simpler draws (many of them better than our flush draw) do not have enough equity to continue.

You then have 36% vs what calls.

So it goes like this;

If he folds F fraction of time you go with the push to 34+3+2.25+7=46.25.

If he calls 1-F you go to 0.36*71.

So to proceed with the push vs folding the flop(=28.75bb) (unlikely choice but lets use it as base) we must have ;

0.36*(1-F)*71+F*46.25>28.75 or 25.56-25.56*F+46.25*F>28.75 or 20.69F>3.19 or F>15.5%

So we need him to be folding more than 15.5% of the time to break even with a push.
That is probably reasonable to be true if you count his bluffs and semibluffs. So the push is not in itself a bad EV choice.


Also if you include in his range some slow played AA,KK,QQ and maybe reduce a bit the chance he would reraise with TT or 77 you can go to 40% on your all in equity when called. Then the above push goes to needing only 2% or see next 10% if you are good player vs field).

Overall its very hard to argue ever that the push is a bad EV choice. But it can still prove in my opinion substantially worse than the other routes. A push basically saves him money doesnt it?

A call on the other hand will have us hit very often at turn to justify the tiny extra cost of 4bb to get there (turn pot at 21.5bb, we hit like 32% of the time, paid only 4bb to get there after his reraise that often implies more profit to come if we hit because he has something likely) and the implied odds minus reverse implied odds still make it very lucrative to continue. Of course we still lose everything vs a higher flush when we connect but we have also the straight flush possibility that can take down fh and quads and other flushes/straights. All these guys will pay us everything then. Additionally we do get action from trips if we hit and then win the vast majority at river.

Also if the guy didnt bet turn and we miss river it may be still ok to bluff bet/fold the river with even half of remaining stack just in case he was bluffing exploiting the TT and we have both missed but he has still better hand that cant call any bet though lol.

I think the vastly better line here is to avoid the push after his raise, call him and force another bet at turn that we hit or call to see river if the bet is not an all in at turn.

Our hand will hit often enough and will get paid by so much then that we can take this route. Yes we will often have nothing at river and then experience a 50% stack loss with that approach, we may sometimes even face a push at turn that we fold and still have 24.75bb left then. So i think we take this line, call him and then check if we fail to connect and call him again if we miss (say 10-14 bb) unless its an all in and then give up at river with whatever we have left or hit and finally get everything the vast majority of those times.

This approach is significantly better than the push option here and often allows to survive when all goes wrong and sometimes may even improve us with a river bluff if the guy was himself bluffing/semibluffing at flop.


As always never fail to recall that a good player in a softer opponents table with still 25 bb left (if we called the flop and then folded later say) has easily a requirement of 1.5-2bb profit on his all ins. So to judge if the push at flop is a good idea not only try to compare it with a more careful street to street approach but also with whether the EV is over +1.5bb given how often he folds. (so the 15.5% fold chance may make it breakeven but if good player, better than others at the field, you are looking at F>23% which further discourages the push option, if we have 40% vs the calling range the above numbers improve though and push is still ok even if inferior to the other route).