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Old 08-17-2012, 03:00 PM   #16
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Re: WSOP Main Event deep last year spot

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Originally Posted by busto_soon View Post
Is it?
I think so... It would be pretty hard to prove with maths, but I would say calling is less variance than shoving. You can state that shoving is more EV+ than calling of course, depending on the squeezer's range.
It has been a while since I posted this, but well... I guess I exagerated a bit on my read on O'Dea. I had the feeling he had a strong hand but wasn't sure about it, besides I'm not that good at live reads heh. Basically, I was in a spot where I didn't feel comfortable shoving, nor I felt comfortable folding due to my hand strength and the possibility he was bluffing. Given this read, do you still feel it is a fold or shove spot, without any space for a call? Most players would agree that:

Tight Squeezer ---> Easy Fold
Loose Squeezer ---> Easy Shove

So what happens in the gray area in between? A pro of calling would be that post flop we could get a better idea of villian's hand, especially as he should be less likely to bluff us out of the pot with Dacourt in the hand too. We can also check raise or check call many flops and get to showdown.
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Old 08-17-2012, 05:57 PM   #17
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Re: WSOP Main Event deep last year spot

i hate these spots (the grey area ones) in general, esp when deep. I agree with busto that calling might be the highest variance line. Folding is obv the lowest one but with a hand like AQ it just feels so nitty to simply fold here.

Like Todd T. says, the stack sizes are going to be very weird and that would be a good argument to fold and just take the single call as a loose and observe the rest of the hand.

The problem with calling is that the IR (spew frenchy) assumes we would call here close to 100% of the time if he calls as well. That will include a ton of (semi) garbage hands that can flop well and we dont really have a solid read on his range and what flops to play back on or not. Besides that we have the 3bettor which we have also no read on. We totally loose control of the hand therefor I think folding > shoving > calling.

EDIT: Obv i agree with your statement in terms of folding vs shoving. And vs this player, if he recently doubled and now has a more playable stack I often feel he is being lighter in general..

Last edited by rh300487; 08-17-2012 at 06:02 PM.
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Old 08-17-2012, 06:12 PM   #18
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Re: WSOP Main Event deep last year spot

I think your flatting range is fairly polarized to monsters and random pairs,sc's in Odea's eyes. He has every reason to believe you would be 3 betting hands like AQ,Aj etc since dacourt is so active. Given He makes such a transparent 3 bet knowing your flatting range is capped and dacourt is capable of doing something really spewy leads me to believe Odea wants action here. I think I find a fold as played........ I would be 3betting dacourt like 95% in this exact spot for obv reasons tho
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Old 08-17-2012, 06:48 PM   #19
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Re: WSOP Main Event deep last year spot

O'Dea seems to prefer flatting with AK, so I think that specific hand can be excluded from his range. But I'll still put him a strong range. 10s+, maybe AQs. Nitty fold from me. At least you lasted longer then pinkhair.
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Old 08-17-2012, 07:02 PM   #20
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Re: WSOP Main Event deep last year spot

^^^^

Gosh I would think he would flat Ak in this spot like 0%. That would be so bad on so many levels that my head might just explode
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Old 08-17-2012, 09:21 PM   #21
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Re: WSOP Main Event deep last year spot

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Originally Posted by MrSmallie View Post
O'Dea seems to prefer flatting with AK, so I think that specific hand can be excluded from his range. But I'll still put him a strong range. 10s+, maybe AQs. Nitty fold from me. At least you lasted longer then pinkhair.
QFWat
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Old 08-17-2012, 11:31 PM   #22
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Re: WSOP Main Event deep last year spot

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Originally Posted by MrSmallie View Post
O'Dea seems to prefer flatting with AK, so I think that specific hand can be excluded from his range. But I'll still put him a strong range. 10s+, maybe AQs. Nitty fold from me. At least you lasted longer then pinkhair.
first, O'Dea wouldn't be flatting AK in that spot ever.

2ndly, nit fold and don't tell anyone ever that you had AQ

but def 3b Darcourt next time you're 45 to go in the ME in this spot.
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Old 08-21-2012, 04:33 PM   #23
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Re: WSOP Main Event deep last year spot

I loled @ the idea of Pkaiser folding AQ pre .
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