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Old 07-18-2012, 01:33 AM   #1
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WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

Hi guys

So, it's early in the day 2, Vilain doesn't know me, prob view me as a random playing tight scared money, no history, first level of day 2. He hasn't been crazy for now, opening a lot ip but pot controlling flops a lot.

Vilain is Jacob Rasmussen.

It's not exact sizings but should be close to what happened.

So, we both had ~80K, blinds are 250/500, not sure but antes were prob 75.
He's not gonna open much lighter than usual here since big blind is top mtt player with big stack.

Vilain opens hj to 1K, I call BTN with 9s Ts , SB and BB call

Flop : 9h Td 4c
Everyone check to me, I bet 2K, blinds fold, he calls

Turn : As
He checks, I bet 4K, he raised to 10K, I called

River : Kh
He bets 18K, I ?
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Old 07-18-2012, 08:16 AM   #2
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

18K otr is not pot control, its a value bet. Fold.
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Old 07-18-2012, 11:36 AM   #3
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

I know it's not a pot control !
I know his value range beat me on the river, but I can't really see which hand he's playing like this (A4 ?) and which hand he's turning into a bluff. I don't understand anything about his line.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:11 PM   #4
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

completely agree with OP, the only thing that makes sense here is A9/A4..but i think you will see those two hands a lot. After you call turn, he has little reason to believe you will fold river... which of course makes me want to tank fold river
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:59 PM   #5
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

In not the main event I might shove the river, but as played i'd fold. I'd consider folding the turn, but i'd never actually do it.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:59 PM   #6
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

Don't you think he's more likely to lead the turn with aces up ?
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Old 07-18-2012, 03:20 PM   #7
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

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Originally Posted by Drunkadelic View Post
Don't you think he's more likely to lead the turn with aces up ?
That depends on you. a c/r is very likely if he fully expected you to bet/barrel the turn.
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Old 07-18-2012, 03:21 PM   #8
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

he called flop and check-raised river. I think He had some part of the flop and it improved on the turn - such as A9 AT A4. or he min raised pre with aces. or he check raised turn to try to get you to fold so he didn't have to hit his str8 draw and now he actually hit his str8 draw. A9 and AT are a little less likely since you have 9T.

there's just too much out there that beats you. find a better spot. fold.
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Old 07-18-2012, 05:15 PM   #9
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

Or had AK/QJ and was just doing pot control. Raising to 10k on the turn would make you seriously consider checking behind on the river without a very strong hand. Then of course he value bets the river after he gets there.
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Old 07-18-2012, 05:25 PM   #10
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

doubt he ever has a4 here(maaaaybe a4hh/dd), and even a9 shouldnt check the flop close to 100% 4way(perhaps like 65%),while the fewest ppl c/c QJ here otf he might be doing it sometimes-often based on description.but if some1 is ever bluffing here he has to have exactly 8x/KJ i guess.

Last edited by MS_Omaha; 07-18-2012 at 05:26 PM. Reason: 9x
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Old 07-18-2012, 05:51 PM   #11
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

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Originally Posted by MrSmallie View Post
Or had AK/QJ and was just doing pot control. Raising to 10k on the turn would make you seriously consider checking behind on the river without a very strong hand. Then of course he value bets the river after he gets there.
this thought process works for AK but, what showdown value would qj have if he misses?
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Old 07-18-2012, 08:37 PM   #12
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

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Originally Posted by MS_Omaha View Post
doubt he ever has a4 here(maaaaybe a4hh/dd), and even a9 shouldnt check the flop close to 100% 4way(perhaps like 65%),while the fewest ppl c/c QJ here otf he might be doing it sometimes-often based on description.but if some1 is ever bluffing here he has to have exactly 8x/KJ i guess.
I think he's betting QJ a high percentage of the time otf. I really doubt he would use this line with JQ ever.
I think he can check A9/A4 otf more often.

I really felt that this king on the river was the worst card to bluff on and this spot was unbluffable.

He can think I'm taking a stab on the flop ip with any 9 T or str8 draw and just barrel a scary turn

What is my perceived range otr ?

Last edited by Drunkadelic; 07-18-2012 at 08:52 PM.
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Old 07-18-2012, 09:56 PM   #13
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

Thinking about some more, he probably had a set and hoped you had an Ace.
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Old 07-19-2012, 01:34 AM   #14
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Re: WSOP Main Event Day 2, 2 pairs vs big river bet

player dependent. fold against most obv
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