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| High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of high stakes MTT hands and techniques |
06-27-2012, 03:34 PM
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#1
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enthusiast
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: 5280
Posts: 72
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WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
i'll remove all suspense and start with this:
2770 runners. 297 got paid. i busted at 311. FML.
the bubble burst within 30min of 1st level on Day 2. i start the day with 8400, and i think it's 600/1200/200a. button starts in seat 9. i'm in seat 7. i don't really think table dynamics factor into the equation at this point for me, but so far there's only been one flop, and i've folded every hand. there's one other short stack at the table in seat 8 with about 14k. he's shoved once already and everybody folded.
so my question: should i have just folded and prayed that I make the money? should i only be shoving with AA or KK?
so on my bust out hand, i'm now UTG with AQo. i shove, the guy in seat 9 snap calls, folds around. he shows KK. flop comes Q high, no other miracle, i'm fuct...
so, appropriate shove or what?? thanks guys...
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06-27-2012, 03:57 PM
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#2
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veteran
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Havana Daydreamin'
Posts: 2,947
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Re: WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
unreg pre.
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06-27-2012, 04:41 PM
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#3
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Golden, CO
Posts: 5,172
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Re: WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
AQo has too much +cEV to pass up. Unlucky.
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06-27-2012, 05:29 PM
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#4
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: May 2005
Location: caution is a word i cant understand
Posts: 16,975
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Re: WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
You probably missed some (many) other good shoves before this, especially towards the end of day 1
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06-27-2012, 05:41 PM
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#5
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adept
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Temple Universitah
Posts: 700
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Re: WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
Quote:
Originally Posted by benza13
You probably missed some (many) other good shoves before this, especially towards the end of day 1
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yeh and shove this
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06-27-2012, 09:09 PM
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#6
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: the nice hot tub
Posts: 6,638
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Re: WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
First reply in the thread solved the equation fairly well imo. UL tho, hate bubbling hendon mob flag equity
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06-28-2012, 12:44 AM
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#7
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enthusiast
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Brooklyn
Posts: 93
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Re: WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
ez shove, your 7BB stack has some fold equity, there are too many people left till the bubble, and you have a great hand.
Now I had a spot in a 1500 WSOP bubble where I got crippled on the bubble JJ<KK, and picked up AQ twice in a row in early position both times facing a raise with ~3 ppl left till the bubble, and I have a 2BB stack, I folded both times. It gets better, I have 2k at 600/1200/200, 1 (or 2?) person till the bubble, I am in the BB, so 800 behind, it goes raise, call, and I look down at 99. What I should have done was wait for the other tables to finish their hands (note that this is not stalling, because we're hand for hand), and fold if anyone got KOed (they announce it outloud). Instead I made a "standard" play of snap-calling, getting 100000 to 1, and lost to JJ. 2 more ppl got KOed the same hand, WSOP doesn't do it by stack sizes, so each of us got $900 out of the $2700 mincash, which for some reason tilted me more than if I would have stone-cold bubbled.
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06-28-2012, 01:10 AM
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#8
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grinder
Join Date: May 2010
Location: birsland
Posts: 616
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Re: WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
I would never go allin with AQ near the bubble, that's for sure
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06-28-2012, 01:14 PM
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#9
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grinder
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Fairbanks, Alaska
Posts: 625
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Re: WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBestInNAlb4lb
I have 2k at 600/1200/200, 1 (or 2?) person till the bubble, I am in the BB, so 800 behind, it goes raise, call, and I look down at 99. What I should have done was wait for the other tables to finish their hands (note that this is not stalling, because we're hand for hand), and fold if anyone got KOed (they announce it outloud).
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This year they've changed that policy. Not only do they not announce it out loud, they ask the dealer to suspend all action when players are all in, and request that players not reveal their hands, until all hands are finished or ready for an all-in runout.
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06-28-2012, 02:25 PM
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#10
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journeyman
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 292
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Re: WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
I dont know about you guys, but I'm looking to win tournaments. Making the money is nice for sure and definitely pretty cool at a WSOP event which I haven't done yet, but only played a few. I'm snap shoving AQo in that spot there is fold equity and you may get called by worse. Even if you get called by pair you are racing and there is dead money in the pot to justify it. If you win the hand you're well on your way to making a push towards the final table. The only situation i would be folding AQo is when described above, when there is literally no fold equity and there is 1 or 2 players left before bubbling. It then makes sense to wait and pray because your chances of winning have been dramatically reduced.
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06-28-2012, 05:57 PM
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#11
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enthusiast
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Brooklyn
Posts: 93
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Re: WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fitzcat
This year they've changed that policy. Not only do they not announce it out loud, they ask the dealer to suspend all action when players are all in, and request that players not reveal their hands, until all hands are finished or ready for an all-in runout.
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This policy would make sense, but I don't recall being requested not to reveal my hand, and I don't remember for sure, since it was a few weeks ago, but the dealer prob announced "seat open" or whatever as soon as I got KOed.
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07-01-2012, 12:22 PM
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#12
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enthusiast
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: 5280
Posts: 72
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Re: WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
Quote:
Originally Posted by birs320
I would never go allin with AQ near the bubble, that's for sure
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So with 5 people left in the One Drop 25k satellite, Deeb calls Elky's all in shove with AQo. Elky has JJ. Deeb turns a Q, then rivers a Q. Was that a bad play? Does that have any similarity to my play with AQo near the bubble of this 1k?
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07-01-2012, 02:38 PM
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#13
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grinder
Join Date: May 2010
Location: birsland
Posts: 616
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Re: WSOP #43 1.5k Bubble Question
Shaun is a very bad player, don't learn from him. Did you see this hand?
"On the first hand back from the unscheduled break, Shaun Deeb raised to 3.24 million and left himself with just one T5,000 chip. Gus Hansen called and the flop came down A Q T. Hansen bet 25,000 and Deeb quickly folded.
Deeb dropped down to just a mere 5,000 in chips while Hansen moved to 7.195 million."
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