WSOP $1.5k overpair on an undry board

[jon_midas]

snap fold. think about his PF range then think about all the sets he just made. If he's been "fairly snug" it doesnt sound like hes randomly flatting suited connectors UTG+1 and making 1 pair hands/draws and tooling out with them.

[Str82DaRiver]

insta raise is too weird. def on a draw and most likely flush draw. i 3-bet shove for everything b/c im a complete donkey and love the rush of a good sweat! haha

[Fooka]

I read the insta decision as weak or at least a heavy draw. Like I think QJss would min raise for value here because he is in such good shape.

Either way with what he could have and how wet this flop is. QQ can't have a lot of equity here. However my degen side still says" SHIP DOWN HIS GOT DAMN THROAT!!!"

[NicholasJ]

If you are snap folding this, are you folding AA? How about 97 (if we were to open that utg) What is the worst made hand we arent folding in this spot?

FWIW I don't think I can fold.

[jon_midas]

Originally Posted by NicholasJ

If you are snap folding this, are you folding AA? How about 97 (if we were to open that utg) What is the worst made hand we arent folding in this spot?

FWIW I don't think I can fold.

I mean Im obv saying this based on very limited information:

Originally Posted by Gadarene

Villain is to my direct left, he's younger and Latino and has been playing fairly snug. He limped AK UTG in a prior hand and then called a shove in a spot where it wasn't necessarily clear that a shove was forthcoming.

but it just seems that if villain is a standard 'snug' player, his PF range is something like 99+ AJss+ AQ+. I dont think I would fold AA, Im too lazy to stove right now but I think if we make the assumption that he does this a decent % of the time with JJ-KK then its worth piling. KK is really close and obv QQ is not a 'snap' fold, but I just dont see what we are ahead of. 97 is obv a pile bc theres a bunch of card removal and stuff.

[Soepgroente]

Shove instantly so that he may fold JT or something.

[jon_midas]

Originally Posted by Soepgroente

Shove instantly so that he may fold JT or something.

Soep, you really think your average "fairly snug" player as described in OP is flatting any hand preflop with a T in it (besides TT) UTG+1?

I guess its pointless to continue this train of thought without confirmation from OP on what he perceives villains UTG+1 PF flatting range to be...

[joeschmoe]

I think villain's raise says everything about what he thinks we have, and little or nothing about what he has.
Our open was 400. That 600 cbet into a 1025 pot was very weak, imo..
V naturally assumes that we don't especially like that flop.. and is correct in the assumption.

[Gadarene]

Originally Posted by jon_midas

Soep, you really think your average "fairly snug" player as described in OP is flatting any hand preflop with a T in it (besides TT) UTG+1?

I guess its pointless to continue this train of thought without confirmation from OP on what he perceives villains UTG+1 PF flatting range to be...

I think his pf range is a little wider than you do, probably including most pairs, most suited broadways, and a smattering of middle suited connectors. Like fairly snug to me signifies not getting super-creative/active/aggro pre and not turning up with a bunch of random hands without some decent equity given his position etc.

But I think the instaraise on this texture narrows that pf range considerably, and I don't think he's doing it with any Tx hands except TT.

Those are just assumptions based on lol live tendencies tho

[Gadarene]

Originally Posted by joeschmoe

I think villain's raise says everything about what he thinks we have, and little or nothing about what he has.
Our open was 400. That 600 cbet into a 1025 pot was very weak, imo..
V naturally assumes that we don't especially like that flop.. and is correct in the assumption.

How would you size it if you liked the flop? I don't think my sizing screamed anything one way or the other

And idk if most random villains can be assumed to be capable of instaraising based on our perceived happiness with the texture anyway

[joeschmoe]

I'd check it, see what he does. Let him bet that 600, and consider a c/r.
But if it goes c/c, he doesn't like the flop, and I can lead maybe 1200 with any turn card, whether blank or scary.

At least my flop-check lets him lead, and I get some idea of his strength.

I'm not a big fan of the obligatory continuation bet..

[joeschmoe]

Originally Posted by Gadarene

<snip>
And idk if most random villains can be assumed to be capable of instaraising based on our perceived happiness with the texture anyway

What else can he do there?

If he's drawing, calling 600 practically begs for a big bet from us when the turn blanks.
Assuming he has a made hand, any spade (edit.. except 9s) kills him. If he flopped the straight, any 8, J or Q or K means it's no longer the nuts.
He can't really fold to 600 if he's got some pair..

So I think he really wants us to fold.

[Soepgroente]

Originally Posted by jon_midas

Soep, you really think your average "fairly snug" player as described in OP is flatting any hand preflop with a T in it (besides TT) UTG+1?

I guess its pointless to continue this train of thought without confirmation from OP on what he perceives villains UTG+1 PF flatting range to be...

I don't think 3 orbits is enough to get a read on most peoples opening ranges enough. I'd need a good read to fold QQ here, not "villain is fairly snug" cause people randomly call JTo all the time that seemed tight.

[LATROJAN44]

I call and peel one off and re evaluate on turn card. He could be doing that with lots of draws.

[jon_midas]

Originally Posted by Soepgroente

I don't think 3 orbits is enough to get a read on most peoples opening ranges enough. I'd need a good read to fold QQ here, not "villain is fairly snug" cause people randomly call JTo all the time that seemed tight.

Hero is opening UTG and villain is flatting UTG+1.

Agree that its all a matter of how strong your read is and we should call/shove without sufficient info. As with all live hands I wasn't there so can't say, I was just basing my initial response on my perception of the wording in OP. FWIW in a vacuum if villain is flatting on the BU or CO or something im not folding pretty much ever.