WSOP $1.5k overpair on an undry board

[Gadarene]

blinds are 75/150, I have 9k and villain has 6k

I've been at the table for a few orbits; got a bunch of chips by getting it aipf against a LAG with 99 vs. AKcc and winning on a board of A9xcc, Tc, Ax or something. Also 3bet-shoved from SB vs BTN open before that and he folded; otherwise haven't done much. So prob have TAG image but willing to go with value hands.

Villain is to my direct left, he's younger and Latino and has been playing fairly snug. He limped AK UTG in a prior hand and then called a shove in a spot where it wasn't necessarily clear that a shove was forthcoming.

I'm UTG and open to 400 with Q Q

Villain flats next to act, folds around.

Flop: 7 9 T (pot 1025)

I bet 600 and he insta makes it 1400 with ~4k behind.

wug?

[pgcounty]

fold

[moginsburg]

Originally Posted by Gadarene

blinds are 75/150, I have 9k and villain has 6k

I've been at the table for a few orbits; got a bunch of chips by getting it aipf against a LAG with 99 vs. AKcc and winning on a board of A9xcc, Tc, Ax or something. Also 3bet-shoved from SB vs BTN open before that and he folded; otherwise haven't done much. So prob have TAG image but willing to go with value hands.

Villain is to my direct left, he's younger and Latino and has been playing fairly snug. He limped AK UTG in a prior hand and then called a shove in a spot where it wasn't necessarily clear that a shove was forthcoming.

I'm UTG and open to 400 with Q Q

Villain flats next to act, folds around.

Flop: 7 9 T (pot 1025)

I bet 600 and he insta makes it 1400 with ~4k behind.

wug?

I'm folding. Smells like a set. Especially since its the first time he showed aggression You aren't pot committed either.

If he has a flush draw with the ace of spades you are only a 53% favorite.

[Gadarene]

for those who think it's a pretty easy fold, does the answer ever change if he's deeper?

[sonnyalbo]

To give a shallow answer, v as described is snap raising for value on a flop of that texture..

If we trust our read of v as a snug Latino who does not give an online vibe, a deeper-ish stack would not make a big difference in his value lines..

[joeschmoe]

deeper would make a difference to me.. He can raise lighter. Here, he's practically committing himself. (not to say I'm convinced I'm beat already.. insta-anything is suspicious, imo.)

[sonnyalbo]

like most if yr posts, u don't read along the lines Joe.

[joeschmoe]

everyone wants to make comments about my comments.. and then accuse me of derailing threads.

[rolledup222]

Thought about this hand last night. Would villain snap raise with a set or made straight? I wouldn't think so based on villain wouldn't want to bring attention to himself. He would want a call. Unless villain just is super amatuer excited to see you bet. Given his min raise size I think villain plays/understands some Internet style. I think true live players only would 3 bet to 2k or so v almost min raise.
I flat his raise. Call villain bet turn if no straight/flush card hits. If no straight/flush and he checks, shove and charge for his draw. /win

[potbets]

feel like youre just hoping he calls or folds when you bet?
i don't like betting flop if you're thinking about folding here.

kinda like taking it to the turn (c/c flop). and i like leading good turns (2-5, board pair, or q) ~.65 pot (obv calling shove), &c/f on 6,8,a, dunno about j,k (pot odds baby!!)

or maybe just bet flop and get it in. ***, i dunno. not sure i understand bet/fold flop tho

[betgo]

I wouldn't fold this. He can have top pair, JJ, 88, and all kinds of draws.

[Fooka]

I guess I'm the only 1 here that would call. I mean this is a wet board and he could be doing this with lots. Idk call and see what turns.

Phil hellmuths books states that a insta action means weakness . Lol

And we all know that hellmuth is a boss . Lol

Idk I just don't like a fold here IMO

[Wizard-50]

Fake rage to clear yourself then shove. Also I'd check this flop texture a decent amount. But less than usual with these stack sizes. Usually b/b/b

[TrueNewfie87]

Tough and annoying spot. Want to shove badly but given your POV on him I prob puke fold. It's either a monster draw (a8s, ajs) or a set, maaaaybe two pair. Maybe a flopped str8 but doubtful. You don't have the Qspade either :/

How'd it go down?

[Fooka]

As BALLz would put it " Shove it down his got damn throat!!!!"