First of all, a lot of obnoxious pricks on blogs - don't pay them any mind. Initially, I thought this was an easy call. AK is a monster, right? Then I thought, it's a potential monster, but let's face it, it's just ace high, and more often than not, will stay ace high. I don't think you could ever be faulted for calling here, especially when I don't see why the villain would be looking to chase you off the hand with AA or KK. That said,, that close to the money, still with a respectable stack, I don't think it's a terrible idea to wait for a better spot. I'd feel a lot better going all-in after hitting a flop hard, than pairless pre-flop.

Lol dude you post a ******ed question get free advice from ppl better than you and am like zomg I got made fun of I'm outta here
Also you don't contribute anything to the forum so wtf do
U expect

u sure this is right?seems like a pretty sick price for given action(~2.3 to 1), doesn't seem correct. if I this is the price I think it's impossible to fold

He didn't state it the standard way. It is 19K to win 26.4K. So 1.4-1 pot odds.

OP, there is no way this is at all a close decision, which is why you got trolled. Maybe don't focus on bust out hands so much.

Where was he supposed to post this if this isn't the right forum?

Poker (x)
MTT (x)
Highstakes (x)

What may be obvious to you may not be obvious to someone else.

Was this the event where he got 3rd? He's out if he loses that flip.. that's poker for ya...

Beginner's questions seems reasonable. 19k to win 40k. Its printing money even if his range is 22-QQ. Add just AQ in there and u can pop a boner at the ev. /thread

Sent from my SCH-I535 using 2+2 Forums

Damn. I must suck.

I am folding there.

Unless i have a read on the live pro mentioned that he doesnt respect the event (ie he didnt play carefully so far , tough to know if on other table etc, how he got to 21.5bb recently) and that he sees the situation as a broader EV game (like for example i better have a big stack tomorrow before bubble to exploit things or be done with it and leave tonight so that i can do other things tomorrow) i call with QQ-AA ONLY, as long as i view the rest of the table as soft and the pro as aware of the need to have an EV edge here to risk 21.5bb (need about 0.7-1bb cushion per 20bb risked). I still open 10% of course and claim to be a TT-AA,AK caller. So my AKo better become a "tough to fold 99 or AQs here hand" if others have to know.

I know i will be attacked for this but you havent done the math yet guys and think in terms of what one must do in general with AKo here and against most people, especially good players in a tough field.


But before i go into the details let me trigger discussion;

1) AA,KK may be better 3bets at 25-30bb and higher stacks but at 21.5bb if you think by 3betting from 2.5bb to 5.5? you get more value than by pushing you are not correct. Its about the same. And for QQ,JJ, AK its a no brainer. So AA,KK are just fine in the pushing range for value. You will get called anyway 30-40% of the time here and the rest is 5bb risk free so why complain. KK for example vs TT-AA,AK if they always had that to call you will go to 8.5bb instead of 6 with the push. But of course they never play no matter what you do in such manner as to put all the stack in by river without you also getting in trouble some times and not getting paid others. So i think around 20bb the EV of 3bet or push is the same. Especially as evidenced if you have others that see you as scared AK 99 here. lol.

2) Just because a hand is a plus EV push hand if needed doesnt make it a hand in a pushing range of a player that has position and plays well post flop. Such player will for example obtain higher value by calling a 10% range in position with TT or AQ vs 10% instead of pushing with them. The same will be true for 99. They also protect you as played vs a tight unknown player, potentially tighter than what is proper for the position and size raise.

3) You need 42% here but if you include edge and near money situation in a softer table that you may have seen people make mistakes (but not this guy) 44% is a better choice vs his range.

4) AKo doesnt have 44% vs a JJ-AA,AK range if the guy elects to call with the other hands instead of have them in the push range. Only QQ-AA pass this test unfortunately. That wont change if he adds TT 50% of the time and AQ another 50% or if we cut AA,KK say 25%.

However the guy pushing is still assuming he deserves due to edge some EV cushion and the others dont, so will call him with TT-AA,AK maybe even AQs,99 because they seem him as say 88-AA,AK,AQ,KQs,QJs,AJs,ATs etc. So you have a case where he sees you as a wider caller than you really must be and you must be seeing him as a tighter pusher than you would imagine if the game was only a push fold game. You can exploit that by not risking more than needed.


So call AKo (in identical spot, others are much easier of course) always in random tables with no edge and especially if you are worse than them or if the pusher has reasons to be wide, ignoring self respect edge details. But here yes i can find a fold if i think he and i are better than the others but he only thinks he is and he has no other plans for tomorrow.

Because the forum has tons of immature people who like to put people down. They think it makes them look cool and good at poker.

Thanks Masque. I know you can sometimes get a lot of **** around here but this is sort of the response I was looking for. Still no one has tried to really establish a range for Matt here, but I think this is a way less auto spot than I got trolled for. I still think it's probably a call, but I really appreciate your analysis because I'm in the minority with you that it's close.

His range is like 88-QQ, AQ/AK. That is conservative, and he could be lighter. He could sometimes have KK/AA. It is hard to say for sure what range, as he could flat or 3-bet smaller with some hands. You are getting 1.4-1 and probably ahead of his range, so you should call. Your calling range is a more interesting question. It could be as tight as AQs/TT.

This is not close at all, and you should almost never fold AK to a single reshove. If you had posted it in terms of what the calling range is without saying your hand, you would have gotten a friendlier and more informative response.

Agree on not folding in this case.... Say villain has hero covered... How many BBs are we willing to call off with AK in this spot? There's gotta be an equity vs BB (all in) point beyond which we lay it down given our belief that we are more skilled than the remaining field.

A lot of your skill advantage with these stacks consists of not making stupid preflop folds with AK.

Sit our pre, buy in someone with half a brain, take 50%, ???, profit.

Guys please please read theory forum once in a while. Some time ago there was a problem. How do you play vs a guy that in a freeze out pushes every hand. The solution that maximized win probability of the freeze out (equity $)was not to call him with any hand that is plus chip EV vs 100% range. It was much tighter. Your range initially was very small (eg 5-10% depending on stack depth) and eventually as you got down it was opening up a lot more.

The lesson from this is that when others play bad you do not call them with marginal hands in equity. Of course the above example is extreme but so was the needed edge for say 30-40bb stacks in that game. In the real tournament situation that people play a ton better than this but still are worse players overall the same logic applies.


Try to understand it. It is the same as bankroll management. If you go into a table of fish players and you have 100bb and you play in such a way that you have a winrate 0.15bb/h and an sd of 8bb/h you are doing yourself a terrible disservice to go all in with tiny or no edges if you cant reload and exploit image. See why. If you asked what is the volatility of a move that is made of an all in that has 1bb EV using the entire 100bb stack (something that others would see as ok edge and which would be acceptable if you had unlimited capital and ability to reload eternally) and in which you have say for the sake of simplicity chance 50% to win 102bb and 50% chance to lose 100bb (ie EV 1 bb/all in) the answer is

(0.5*(202-101)^2+0.5*(0-101)^2)^(1/2)=101bb


Essentially your avg stack is 101bb after the all in and the sd is 101bb.

Now ask yourself what is the typical number of games of normal poker (not all in every time) that are needed when played at 8bb/h to reach an accumulated volatility of the order 101bb. At 8bb/h the answer 101^2=n*8^2 or n= 159 hands. So it typically takes you 159 hands to experience an accumulated volatility (a swing) of about 101bb. During that period at 0.15bb/h winrate your expected profit is 0.15*159=24bb!!!

So if you play a normal game your expectation is 24bb when the typical swing is order 101. And you are happy to give upon that 24bb and see it as 1bb and its ok now. Well it isnt! This is why bad players like all ins and marginal and submarginal all ins. Its the only way to reduce the edge of the good players.

How on earth can i say it differently. Lets say a newbie player that was taught holdem last week plays with Phil Ivey in a final table heads up. The guy has AJs and he knows that Ivey has KK. They are 50bb each.

So the guy gladly puts Ivey after a couple of reraises all in. Both play their hands face up. Of course Ivey will call him face up or not.The question is if Phil Ivey was playing with say from this thread Matt Stout would Matt knowing he has KK put himself all in with AJs? Of course not. Good players respect themselves to not assign heads up at 50bb only 32.2% win probability. They know that even if the other guy is better the real result if you play properly is like 55-45 or 52-48 or something.

Now try to have the weak player play vs Ivey a normal careful game and see what happens. I can assure you he will have less than 32.2% to win the match. His best strategy therefore is indeed to go all in with AJs.

The same player should also go all in with a flush draw or straight draw no matter how big the pot is vs a top player.

What if i told you that while closing in on Nazi Germany in Jan 1945 a deal was offered that Germany will unconditionally surrender if 1 random armed German soldier was left in a village hiding and 3 armed random others a British, an American and a Soviet were out to get him and succeeded. If the German killed all 3 others then Germany would Keep its pre 1940 borders , it is not occupied and everything is forgotten and peace starts. If the 3 kill him though then Germany surrenders without any more resistance right there and then and becomes occupied.

What do you think the 3 powers US, Soviet Union and England would say to such proposal? Like hell freezes over they would agree to such terms.

Why is poker any different. It is not as extreme of course but it is pretty damn close to arguing along these lines;


If i have even a small edge of 0.05bb/h with a stack of 21.5bb in a soft table (why? Because others limp or call raises out of position with bad hands or push all in with wide ranges from EP or are too tight and fold a ton, do not steal, do not bluff, bluff a lot, you name it) and the typical volatility at this level is like 4bb/h (much smaller than if it were 100bb cash game because then you play more hands and at 21.5 its a push or a raise or a call and see flop type poker or fold the majority of time) then with the above logic by the time the volatility is the entire stack 21.5bb ie roughly 29 hands later, your expected profit will be 29*0.05=1.44bb.

You can even take the winrate edge to tiny levels like 0.025bb/h and its still a 0.75b type thing.

Take that to mean your typical value of 21.5 by the time its risked in such a way that the volatility is around 21.5bb playing a careful game is 21.5+0.75. So why on earth if i go all in right now should the move have a volatility (ie when calling) that doesnt come with an edge of ~0.7bb in EV. If the typical money risking 21.5bb offers is 0.7bb why do i settle for 0.1 or 0.2 or whatever marginal? And then of course you have more icm related concerns as the money approaches that are not skill related.

See my point?

This is why a good player cannot call here with a hand that has 42% vs the range. It is about 44% actually. And the same logic applies to the pusher. He cannot enter situations that are marginal (unless he has other motives we are not aware of).


Do you know Betgo what the EV of pushing with 88 is if they call you with TT-AA,AK and original guy was on a 10% range?

Roughly they all fold 0.965^3*(1-3.5/10)=58% (88 has no blockers so it does in fold equity terms a lot worse than some AJs ) and you pick up 4.9bb then or they call you 42% of the time and you lose 7.3bb. Overall -0.224bb.

So care to reconsider how a good player pushes 88 here? The beauty is that most will do indeed see him pushing hands like 88 or ATs or KQs, QJs. But he shouldnt.

Because he makes it too easy for them.

As for a hand like AQs. Yes that passes as push. But do you know that in position AQs vs 10% is like 53% and a typical post flop game in these terms if you are a better player results in an EV of near 2bb for AQs while a push is much less? Why does a lower volatility +2bb/hand played as a call proves worse than an all in that has 1bb/h ie 2 times less profit on avg and so much higher risk?

jesus
****ing
christ

i like your posts masque but just no

TomoDak,

Give me an idea how you play the top 10% hands as CO (in position if not a push, 3 left to act 2.4+2.5 bb at the pot already, 21.5bb back) here vs a 10% or even less, who knows, tight range, knowing people call say TT-AA,AK and you are the best at the table and close at the money tomorrow and the guy that havent seen open before opened at 2.5bb in the last hand of the night with 7 left, a point that you know most people would say hey scr3w it and fold many ok opening hands, instead of choosing to end the day on random walk campaigns of mayhem lol?

Tell me about AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AK,AQ,99,88,KQs,ATs,QJs,AJo etc.


I even wonder if OP (gavy) can tell us if my 10% guess range i gave him is even in fact a bit less in reality at the last hand. I kind of feel most people at the last hand may skip marginal spots to finish the experience on a happy secure note. And i am like 70% certain that once OP saw AKo with 7 left to act he got both happy and anxious at the same time possibly speaking to self like this "oh boy here we go again, lets do this right".

Why the hell are there so many debates about this. Easiest call ever. I wouldn't be able to call fast enough

Love when people are all like. Zomg skill edge so I decided to fold ak

Hi eb33 what is your opinion on AK?

I used to rate it alongside AA, KK, QQ etc as a 3b, 4b, 5b / stack off hand but I've talked to a lot of live regs recently and I don't rate it as highly. Live players play AK a lot slower and value no where near as much as online players do. Kinda stuck in where I value this hand.

Pokerstove.com or any other range/equity calculator
Do the maths and find out how ak does vs ranges you estimate to be playing vs

Again why anyone here isnt dealing with the legitimate question why on earth would a good player push eg AQs or TT vs a 10% range if they can do better in position by calling? Why has this become a push fold game at 21.5bb when getting close to the money vs people that cover you?

Also lol at mocking the term edge. Yes you can have edge even down to 5bb vs people that play with their gut feelings. You can outplay them even at ridiculous stacks let alone 21.5bb. People may not be able to understand how wide to push or raise vs your blinds or they may be afraid or they push too wide or generate dead chips by not paying attention to all the details or they may be raising too little or too much with garbage hands, all kinds of things. People may be opening wide and others that are passive calling the raises instead of 3btting or folding with weak hands that cannot stand heat and then boom you push then and your 21.5bb has been used better.

People maybe opening min raise and getting 3 callers and you have 22 from BB and you complete and hit a set and they pay you because lol 19bb who cares about you if they are loaded. You name it. Edge can be massive even among good players in general. People can have tells or unbalanced approaches. They may not be able to read well situations they have little obvious equity but you also didnt connect well etc. They may be calling your all ins wide enough because they are loaded and on a good streak so they feel "lucky", who cares. They may be tilted and call out of spite or whatever. Edge can exist even at small stacks. At the final table they may be doing all kinds of icm errors. You have 6bb and some 20bb guy calls wide some bvb battle all in from another 20bb for example. All those are sources of EV gain.

If a certain hand doesnt render as good EV as push vs a range but has double or triple the EV as call why would you push with it in a spot people you just met do not know yet your strategy? If people are so convinced AA,KK are not pushes at this spot why would you not push with them when the EV is about the same as 3betting? So many issues nobody here so happy about AKo is answering.


You think i am afraid to play AKo strong? Yes i am the tight old fashioned guy that is afraid to call the push. Sure. BS. Answer my questions and then come and tell me yes lets call now. I will call with AJs too let alone AKo if a situation deserves it. Here it is questionable. If you have a table edge maybe yes you can imagine a fold and it wont be a bad choice as long as the ones pushing do not know it yet and see you as TT-AA,AK range guy. On your next move exploit the fact they think you are tight or push and get no callers etc.

What if one can legitimately argue that this guy's range is some JJ-AA,AK because hands like AQ,ATs,AJs,99,TT play better differently?


Anyone remember this icm suicide? Even great players can offer you edge lol.

hey its da pokers, i play it everyday

masque I think you are underestimating the lack of desire that a "really successful live pro" may have to bag 21BB in a random 1500 (and also that he will start day 2 with like 18BB). There may be all kinds of factors (what tournament is the next day, etc), that may induce the player to shove a bit wider, with a thought of "if he folds, I pick up a decent pot, if he calls, I have a good shot to start tomorrow with 40BB and a decent shot at running deep"

A very successful live pro also likely knows that LOTS of amateurs drastically overvalue making day 2, and think that OP may make a very snug laydown and just take his decent stack into day 2. Have seen with my own eyes ridiculous faceup laydowns made near the end of the day to avoid the psychological distress of either busting the end of the day, or losing a significant chunk right at the end of the day.