WSOP $1,500 Shootout. Nut Flush on Paired Board

[joeschmoe]

yeah well life is one long troll for all of us, and we're just trolling for different things. I'm not trolling for allies or for agreement, or to join some circle-jerk like most people, so I understand where you're coming from.

[timetowom]

Originally Posted by Chuck Bass

1222

Pic of new 1 denomination chip

[OK2ThePrism]

Originally Posted by Clayton

turn raise is kinda bad imo

I'd be happy to get views on the other streets. Arriving at the river I certainly thought "oops, big pot for level 1 ..."

That turn raise with nothing is actually standard for me .... but villain wouldn't know that. It was - as described - a naive "250 looks weak, let's raise to get him out of the hand" bet. Could it ever work ? If not, then calling the turn is obviously the way to go.

[JoeSchmo]

Originally Posted by joeschmoe

Hey JoeSchmo. I contacted admin about the nick and am waiting on a response.

wtf are you talking about?

[joeschmoe]

ummm... i intended on changing my nick, since it seemed to bug you.

"..Way to cover your bases fake JoeSchmo..."

Did you read msg #22?

[joeschmoe]

Originally Posted by OK2ThePrism

I'd be happy to get views on the other streets. .

I'll give you my perspective as the CO.

Your preflop raise makes me think you are thinking "In a three-way, I have cards that may win, at least one is J+, but not J+/ utter rag. And there will be no limping when I have the button."

The flop bet says "My hopes are still alive. I got a piece of that. Not a lot, but something."

At this point, I (CO) believe I'm at least as good as you, or I have outs, and have called, but I know very little about your hand, so on the bricked turn i put out a little 250 feeler just to see what you do.
Pot is 925.

You bet 850. You almost pot it! Why, I wonder..
Do you think I can call that big of a bet? Are you putting me on Ax? No. You know that I would have at least bet something postflop (or c/r) with an A. Do you think I have maybe JJ-QQ-KK? No. Nobody limps those..

You can't believe I slowplayed a 9... or can you? Well, if you are on the diamond draw, you might semi-bluff here against a possible set, not caring if I fold since your hand is not made yet, while knowing I can't fold a 9 which you might improve to beat... and a 9 can't really raise either.
You're thinking that if I don't have an A or 9, you are most likely not gonna get any more chips from me, so you might as well end it here.
OTOH, If you had a set with like K9o, you'd probably call my 250 and let me lead the river. (I could continue this for a while.. Thus the long tank after your bet)

And then the flush comes in, and your strong aggression makes a river check sensible whether I beat a flush or not.

[OK2ThePrism]

Sounds about right !

[Black Aces 518]

so, joe, you are saying the way we have played leads the CO to check his entire range to us, the huge majority of which we have crushed, and yet you still want to check behind?

that makes no sense.

and i don't like the turn raise barring a specific read or reason because plenty of players will play a 9 this way and if he piles the turn with a 9 (as many players will) we just cost ourself a shot at a very nice pot.

[OK2ThePrism]

Originally Posted by Black Aces 518

so, joe, you are saying the way we have played leads the CO to check his entire range to us, the huge majority of which we have crushed, and yet you still want to check behind?

that makes no sense.

and i don't like the turn raise barring a specific read or reason because plenty of players will play a 9 this way and if he piles the turn with a 9 (as many players will) we just cost ourself a shot at a very nice pot.

I'm not expecting a lot of "Like" for the turn raise ....

[joeschmoe]

I listed reasons why a check behind might be prudent in msg 28.

Another worrisome thing is CO flat called an extra 600 at the turn. That doesn't scream "non-nut flush draw on a paired board" to me. Nor does the flat say CO has some made hand that he wants to protect from the flush draw. But it does say something..

[PokerZombie]

I really really dislike that turn raise. I think the leader is folding 0% of his better hands (unless he was donking with KQ?). IMO he leads all Ax, all 9s, and lots of PPs on turn. Not super afraid of his bet/call. Not *like* it bet I'm not afraid.
Flat then raise if he donks when you hit river.

As played i'm always betting river. How strong do you think he is? If you think he has a 9x and won't fold it I'd go big, like 1800. If he has like Ax I might go for 900-1100.

Probably not folding to a raise if he gets it in on the river.

[hoodskier]

1300/call

lol @ everything joeschmoe has posted

[OK2ThePrism]

I'm seeing a lot of support for a bet on the river and that seems OK to me but if he does check-raise then how can I call ? What hand could he check raise that isn't a full house ?

[joeschmoe]

quads?

I was gonna post the same question as a response to the suggestion of betting 1,300.

I worked out the pot and stack sizes last night, and pot is getting big while stacks get short so this really looks like it's gonna be the last hand for somebody.

[OK2ThePrism]

Originally Posted by joeschmoe

quads?
so this really looks like it's gonna be the last hand for somebody.

We've only been in the comp 20 minutes ! Steady on ....