WSOP $1,500 Shootout. Nut Flush on Paired Board

[OK2ThePrism]

At the time, I had little to go on regarding the player. I did have reason to think he was not an experienced live tournament player, and I knew he was French from his ID check [so he's come a long way to play this event]. These two things combined would mean he was likely a keen recreational player, unlikely to be a superstar, and might also tend to mean he wouldn't want to go broke early in a WSOP event.

That type of player can be more inclined to be passive with a very strong but non-nut hand. From his point of view, I could have AA (unless he has AA ... I agree that is not very likely!).

[joeschmoe]

Originally Posted by jon_midas

are you faking being this bad at posting strategy or are you for real?

You'll get more respect if you just pick one and go with it, than to admit your people-reading skills are limited.

[joeschmoe]

Originally Posted by OK2ThePrism

...
(unless he has AA ... I agree that is not very likely!).

But isn't it always the unlikely things that will pop up out of nowhere and bite us in the ass?

anyways, thanks for the additional clues..

[Wizard-50]

Originally Posted by joeschmoe

But isn't it always the unlikely things that will pop up out of nowhere and bite us in the ass?

anyways, thanks for the additional clues..

I thought you had KK...

O.o

[JoeSchmo]

Originally Posted by joeschmoe

it's so early..
check..
be happy winning the pot, or be happy about not losing all your chips.
win-win

Originally Posted by joeschmoe

Seems like the CO is either really bad or really good. Either way, it means 44, 55, A9, 99, AA are entirely possible.

Betting here is just too lip-smackin' obvious.

Way to cover your bases fake JoeSchmo.

[TheBestInNAlb4lb]

obvious bet, not sure what to do if he raises, folding might be best, he prob just calls with a flush, and randoms don't check-raise bluff rivers all-in all that often, but then again it's WTA.

[joeschmoe]

Originally Posted by JoeSchmo

Way to cover your bases fake JoeSchmo.

ACCKKKkkkkk!!

hmm.. ya know.. when joeschmoe was accepted on my first try, I thought man.. I can't believe nobody's using it.
I'd be more than willing to change my nick if it's allowed. You been here lots longer and have priority, imo.

As for me covering my bases I don't follow you. Both posts are reasons to be cautious.
"Betting here is just too lip-smackin' obvious." Notice the word "too". I meant it literally.

If it's too hot, or too cold, you are not simply uncomfortable.. You are dead. In the same vein, if a clue seems too obvious, the detective has reason to suspect it might have been planted deliberately.
(the "lip-smakin" refers to how greedy everyone seems to feel about this ripe opportunity to "get extra value" .. yummy.)

[Black Aces 518]

checking the river is completely and utterly awful. we started the hand 3 handed! AA and 99 are very unlikely because of PF action (and there's obv only 1 99 combo). A9 is about all he can ever have to beat us. We haven't played the hand like a flush draw, really, (FD generally would just call turn), and so I think boats generally will lead river again to get value from our aces or whatever, fearing we will check back on the flush river card. Def betting around 1100 with the plan to call a shove, but can re-evaluate based on any live reads when he ships (speeches, etc)

[skUZIII]

1350 bet..

[Wizard-50]

Originally Posted by joeschmoe

ACCKKKkkkkk!!

hmm.. ya know.. when joeschmoe was accepted on my first try, I thought man.. I can't believe nobody's using it.
I'd be more than willing to change my nick if it's allowed. You been here lots longer and have priority, imo.

As for me covering my bases I don't follow you. Both posts are reasons to be cautious.
"Betting here is just too lip-smackin' obvious." Notice the word "too". I meant it literally.

If it's too hot, or too cold, you are not simply uncomfortable.. You are dead. In the same vein, if a clue seems too obvious, the detective has reason to suspect it might have been planted deliberately.
(the "lip-smakin" refers to how greedy everyone seems to feel about this ripe opportunity to "get extra value" .. yummy.)

If it takes 3 paragraphs to explain your sentence of poor advice, you're doing it wrong.

[joeschmoe]

Originally Posted by Wizard-50

If it takes 3 paragraphs to explain your sentence of poor advice, you're doing it wrong.

Hey JoeSchmo. I contacted admin about the nick and am waiting on a response.

[joseperez]

Imo villian must specifically put OP on made flush or running boat to ch/raise a boat here.
I would think most boats would lead river to get the crying call from AK - a 9 of some sort, or to induce smaller boat / flush to raise perhaps, or atleast not check behind.

So for me, this is a valuebet spot. Can always b/f if you feel leveled imo.

[joeschmoe]

There are a few non technical justifications for a check.

We are 20 minutes into level 1. Way too early, and no valid reason to get pot committed without the nuts, or near to it. We have like the 6th or 7th nuts. A few chips gained at this point is trivial.

By betting we invite the CO to call with a better hand, to fold (which makes the bet pointless, plus we don't get to see what his cards were), to push with air, to checkraise / push with a boat+... might be more options..

Only 3 of 10 players have shown up. Slow dealer. No confrontational hands thus far, and therefore no idea how anyone plays/ no ranges. Except that, as pointed out in msg 16, the French guy may be extremely tight.

If a clever opponent did flop huge, the line the CO took is just about perfect. As proof of that, it has most people in this thread on his side.

While poker is "one long session", this is a tournament. It can't be treated like a cash game, with tomorrows tournament substituting for today's ATM machine when we bust.

Although you people know all this stuff, nobody's mentioned it and I feel like I have to..

[Chuck Bass]

1222

[Clayton]

nice trolljob joe, wp.

/ignore

turn raise is kinda bad imo