Bet. 875. Fold if he shoves.

This makes no sense to me at all, I really don't understand your thought process. We've bet twice with the betting lead (pretty standard situation), and then a card that's better for our range than our opponent's range comes, and you're not sure if he calls more than 10% of his range to a close to pot-size bet? Why? Or do you really think slow-played sets and backdoor straights and flushes are a large portion of his range?

I think you're overestimating how wide his range to get to river is if you think we're ahead of 90% of it.

This is an interesting spot. I'm not sure he gets to the river with a whole lot that will call a bet from you. I think check/call may be best.

Let's give him 1 combo of 22, 0.7 combos of 77, 0.3 combos of JJ, 0.1 combos of KK, 0.3 combos of AQss, 0.3 combos of T9s, and 0.1 combos of 76ss. That's 2.8 combos total compared to any possible pair that calls 2 streets. Seems like we're crushing his range to me.

1220

calling a shove?

Assuming that the few slowplayed sets that got here this way are flatting the river, I think I'd be bet/calling here

lot of good poker players say bet i think is pretty interesting

initially i thought fold but i will reconsider now maybe

you were serious with c/f?

Not really sure, tough spot if he shoves, would like to know more about villain but I would likely fold.

can he ever have AK here at 15/30?

Bet 800 and fold to a larger raise. His range is mainly nutted towards sets or showdown value. I don't think his bluff % is high on the river this early on when you 3barrell him or if you check to him.

As I mentioned, I am OK with c/c. However, I think you do get called by worse. He obviously has a hand that he called the previous 3 streets with. When you bet when the backdoor flush hits, you could just be 3-barrelling the K-high board. You probably check a lot of value hands OTR, so why shouldn't he continue calling you down.

i like 1050/f

yeah