Well I think why Fedor is flatting QTs is exactly that he is sometimes flatting here with AA and it's kind of a tight range that he's flatting if it's only like K-hi or lower suited broadways some of the time. I agree though that QTs is a good hand to shove here, but maybe he had a read that Rast was kinda strong. Also QTs flops well so like he's investing 12% of stack and he flops something like 33% of the time, so flatting is certainly a viable option. It is a thing to consider though that maybe the players behind are gonna squeeze, but it's not like they'll do it really light cos it has to get through Rast and also Fedor as we saw can still flat that squeeze and has a lot of equity going into the flop.

But it's not like I play very high games either so idk.

That is a pretty ridiculous overcall with the AJdd, even getting 3.5-1. There's simply no way AJdd has even 20% equity against optimistic ranges (unless you're Valeriu Coca and put them on the AsKd and KcJc). Every other decision in the hand is at the very least justifiable. Guess it's somewhat reassuring to see great players make big mistakes sometimes.

fedor-standard initial flat, second flat can't possibly be too big of a mistake.potodds.position. 2/5 royal.

rast- hand got more spewy progressively.

mercier- probably has a lot of history/has diff sizings and his range to make it this tiny in this spot is [aa]fine he exploited rast.

i'll never use my timebank chips the same way in a $100K again

It was a tell. Rast should have picked up an it.

lol rast, wonder what hes thinking while using 2 timebank chips (BUT I HAZ TP BUT I HAZ TP?)

lol@ folding QTs to initial open

CUG's flat with QTs with 17bb versus UTG is just bad. There is no reason to justify it. It is a pure gamble. His second call confirms that he is gambling there. He crushes mtts, etc., but this was just bad.

Mercier's 3b sizing screams KK/AA, reaaaaally exploitable, super strong range, considering he is never folding to CUG's reshove who could have KK/AA himself.

Rast's first call is questionable, he should've guessed that either one of those guys have KK/AA, he is crushed there. His call otf after 2 minutes of tank is lmao bad.

this made me chuckle, but seriously, I guess it's how live players break down hands most of the time. Another line of their thinking might be "IS HE BLUFFING OR NOT? BLUFFING? NOT?"

Explain why fedors initial flat is so bad. I think I prefer shoving vs anyone that opens a reasonable range here shorthanded, but flatting really cant be that bad, especially vs someone who is going to make postflop mistakes.

I'm amazed that people say this stuff with such certainty while probably never having analyzed the spot in a mathematical/gto way and while probably having no (other than heuristic) evidence that it is not part of optimal play to have a balanced flatting range including combos of QTs in this situation.

Don't want to be overly pedantic here but Fedor starts the hand with 18.125 BB (18.425 according to Pokernews). If anybody wants to do some math on this spot that could relevant.

With the blinds being super unlikely to squeeze and the fact that people will likely range him much stronger than he is I could easily be convinced that his call pre is fine at some not 100% frequency.

Assuming:
Rast opens 16% UTG: 55+,A8s+,A5s-A2s, ATo+,K9s+,KQo,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s
Then in equilibrium Fedor can shove 66+,ATs+,AQo+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs

I can easily be convinced that flatting is the higher EV play given you keep positional advantage and get multiway a lot which is obv nice with a hand like this.

Edit: I put in a too small ante, so fedor can probably get away with shoving/flatting even wider

16% utg opening range is extremely generous

They play 6 handed no?

still generous given that one of the guys has reshoving stacks and Rast himself has about 30-40 bbs. But even if he is loose utg for some reason, QTs becomes money printing reshove that folds a lot of better hands

Rast has 100bb+. Anyway arguing with you is pointless, gg

Lol 16% rfi in this spot is not generous. What do you think button -3 average rfi is with these stack sizes madlee?

Did not see that, yeah. However effective stacks at the table make 16% utg range a bit unreasonable. It's unreasonable even at 100bb deep 6-max cash game. I don't know what we are arguing about, if you think calling utg opens with 18 bigs with QTs is fine, so be it, it's your opinion

Ok thanks for your nice and detailed arguments why flatting QTs here is "just bad", and a " pure gamble". You really opened my eyes here...

i think some of the top regs are opening 21-22% at full ring mtt tournaments whilst 12 tabling, 16% 6 handed with 100bbs don't not seem "unreasonable' imo.

Lol, you seem confused. People would not be pulling theyr hair if Fedor flatted QJs here and against a 16% opening range the difference in equity between QJs and QTs is 0.7%. QTs has 39.78% against this range and he is getting 2 to 1. Of course not accounting for the times Peters or Mercier 3bets, which is not very unlikely to happen. Fedor is probably aware of how often they are 3betting in this spot and came to the conclusion that his call would go through often enough. I just can not see how his line is bad, shipping it pre is kind of meh since it is UTG after all and this is just such a nice hand to play in position if the blinds lets you to do so. Shortstacked MTT Poker doesn't seem to be your thing does it?

none of the biggest 10/20+ winners on stars open 16% or less UTG. it's odd when people make these statements with so much confidence when they clearly have no idea what they're talking about. First preflop call seems fine, second one seems loose, given how strong of a range I think mercier has in this spot. people just love flatting the bb when they can close the action instead of squeezing in this spot

honestly super standard hand not sure what people are on about?

confidence isn't always a winning formula

QTss is the absolute nut hand he was trapping AA ffs /thread