Villain is a top 5 P5'er and is ok at poker. My reads on him are hes super solid early on and opens up as you get deeper (yawn). But really hes good and obv capable of most things.

History is, the others busted pretty quick, hes been active ive been relatively quiet due to lack of chips and cards. He knows I know who he is, as its not his well known SN, and just after I acknowledged him he opened button and I jammed from SB and won 88 > 55.

2 Hands later he opened UTG and I 3bet him with same sizing in the hand in question. He folded. Next 4 or 5 hands I opened once uncontested and r/f the btn. Could easily look like im now at it due to accumulating a stack. This is one hand later.

Guaranteed 1.6 first is 8 and a bit. Everyone else at table has been fairly quiet and passive and I havent noticed anyone decent.


UTG: 264,947 (53 bb)
BTN: 103,893 (20.8 bb)
BB: 69,684 (13.9 bb)
Hero (MP): 213,808 (42.8 bb)
CO: 110,892 (22.2 bb)
SB: 214,776 (43 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A K
UTG raises to 10,000, Hero raises to 23,750, 4 folds, UTG calls 13,750

Flop: (58,000) 2 5 Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (58,000) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets 28,750, UTG raises to 65,000

Given the rest of the table and stacks, I fold. Its just gunna be redic easy to take chips off this table with 35-40bb. If you call here and end up losing the hand, chances are you will be down to 20bb or less, which gives you a lot less room to move around with. I'm really not concerned about his range all too much here, even if you are ahead he is gunna have a lot of equity vs your hand and you only have a few river cards that you actually want to see.

edit: obviously tournament dependant, you didn't give us any info on what tournament/site this was on so I'm assuming its some euro major. I have seen you on party, but don't know if you play prima or ongame so I guess this is the party $100k? Definitely folding if this is the case.

Indeed, its a partyment, the 100fo.

I do agree with your thinking, but I was also thinking b/f is kinda gross given the history and the fact that he is easily capable and may well choose to put some pressure on me in a spot like this with these stacks. Id be happier to fold had I bet bigger.

Edit: Just noticed positions might be wrong. He is UTG I am next to act

And also, I just checked and the hand a few before where I said he r/f to a 3bet was actually him 4b/f to me around 33BB deep, which I think adds to the whole dynamic much more. Shoulda woken up before I posted.

not sure if he can be bluffing at this spot, would be pretty sick...

looks like AQ, but could also be... trips, possible... flush otf, also possible, flush draw, unlikely since there is an ace on the flop, and he wouldnt be semi bluffing k high flush draw....

your call should be based on reads... personally, i dont think he ever bluffs here... unless he got some sort of read on you

interesting hand... i want to say that i think you should cbet this flop since his range is pretty wide and there's plenty of room for you to call or 3bet if he c/r, and i also want to say even though his range is wide i don't think it's bad to just call pre instead of play a big pot vs a good player with icm considerations here

^^ both of these things were mentioned to me and I think have a lot of merit. Given the fact he 4bet/f to me 5 hands earlier I thought 3betting would be better. Im happy to get it in pre.

Flop I thought was close given the good chance hes gonna play back/float on this texture. But im kinda torn now. Its a spot smallballing it would prob usually be best but the history made a big difference.

What do you think about checking back the turn? It seems pretty easy for a tough player to think your range is capped here and put you to the test. It sucks to let a four-flush get there but given he's a lot more likely to call your 3bet with suited hands than offsuit ones, I'm not that concerned about it.

Also it's obviously player dependent but I think most people are less likely, not more likely, to go nuts preflop after 4-bet/folding a few hands ago.

I think you should check back the turn after you check this flop unless you're very comfortable stacking off. Not that I wouldn't be, but you have a better idea than we do how much he's gonna tool out in this spot

EDIT

I think he's pretty likely to do one of two things when you check flop and bet turn: put you on a pair of aces and fold, or put you on a pair of aces and try to make you fold. I don't think you're gonna get two streets of value from x/bet/bet here very often. When you check back turn you look like you could be pot controlling TT 99 JJ type hands

Yup, I agree. think the turn is probably a good check after a flop check. I kinda hate it now sigh.

Billy, he may not be getting it in pre with sooted connectors anymore but I think given my/our activity in 2 orbits I think hes gonna significantly widen his value range, which is obviously great.

What nsb said. Also dont think there is much upside by letting him know that you know him.