We are on the exact bubble, next hand we'll get hand for hand for sure... 283 left of 280 paid... I have no more time bank to stall and get to hfh.

Its pretty obvious V is shoving 100% of his range there, but it seems a terrible call if we think about ICM.. I have about 67% equity vs any2 range, to call and double up doesn't change too much my tournament status, but losing it Im out of the money, as if I fold Im certainly ITM.

Its obv some ppl will say it depends on the effect the BI has on me and stuff, but the best decision is the best, no matter the BI, so I just want to know what you guys think about the decision itself.

You answered your own question; if you call and double up it doesn't affect your tournament equity, whereas if you call and lose you don't cash. Fold and hate the poker gods for dealing you AKs!

Agree w/ folding it. Obv you're wayyyyyyyyy ahead of SB range, but the % of you cashing is over 90% if you fold and you're hand has like you mentioned 67% vs any2. Fold and hate you're life for having AKs here

You are getting pot odds plus being a 2-1 favorite. You have to call 9.5k to win 16.8K. If the original stack is 10K and the mincash is $400, then you lose about the equivalent of 20K in chips by not mincashing. That would make it a 29.5K loss to a 16.8K gain. So the call would be profitable getting 2-1. The mincash is probably less than $400 and you will likely get blinded down further folding into the money if you fold.

So I think this is an easy call. I don't agree that doubling up doesn't effect your tournament equity. Being a 2-1 favorite getting 1.8-1 pot odds is huge. You will have 26.3K chips the 2/3 of the time you win.

It is close enough that it is OK to fold if not mincashing would cause problems psychologically or to your bankroll.

i agree with betgo.

call would be profitable in terms of odds

I think this is close, but a fold.

With a double up, the value of our stack probably increases in value by around 40% over when we fold, which is not enough to justify calling against his range of any two cards.

It's not a double up. It is closer to a triple up. How does it only increase the value of our stack by 40%?

It's just an estimate based on standard prize pool payouts and similar ICM spots.

Maybe calling like 99+ here.

I get more like a 50% increase. I made a little mistake in my initial calculations. I now agree with bikram that it is a close spot and may be a fold.

I made an estimate of value of stacks by hand. Does anyone know if there is a way to get stack values through software in this situation?

If we fold, we have 11.5K; if we call and win, we have 28.2K. We originally bought in for $200 for 10K chips. With rake and mincash deducted, we can value 10K chips at about $150 or $15 or 1K chips.

If the mincash is $350, then adding the value of the chips to the mincash, the 11.5K stack would be worth about $520 and the 28.2K stack would be worth about $770. So I would estimate about a 50% increase in the value of the stack, which would make the call slightly $EV- assuming 65% equity versus ATC.

If we fold, we are likely to get further blinded down before the bubble. Also, not sure exactly the value of the mincash. So it might be a call given those other factors.

vamooo betgo
when i played chess tournaments in 2007 it was very affective to be very aggressive so I would do the same in this spot and choose the aggressive call

I said I reevaluated it and think it is very close and may be a fold. Has nothing to do with being aggressive. It is a math issue. People before were saying the call didn't increase your stack value, which isn't true. It is a close spot and not a snap fold.

It may be a call if the mincash is relatively small and depending on how much you have to be blinded down to fold into the money.

You are 65% against ATC, so you need to increase the value of your stack by about 55% for it to be a $EV+ call.

At what stack size does this become a call?

Betgo youre wrong... OP has M2 and will have >90% of cashing if he folds... Not that close probably close to an easier fold... Probably calling JJ+

Do you disagree with my estimates of stack values for folding and "doubling up"?

I know he can fold into the money, but he loses more chips doing so, and you need to factor that into stack values.

You are really folding TT, which is 75% against ATC, plus 1.5-1 pot odds? Can you show me math that TT is a fold?

77 is actually better than AKo here, as his range is literally ATC. pps are real strong here against low cards. I think AKo is close, but not saying it is a call.

^^ I agree TT might be a call or whatever, I didn't do any calcs to decide on JJ it was an arbitrary guess, however I am fairly aware of AK's equity against ATC which is a fairly easy fold in this spot.

Snap it , and do some dance.

You throw out a range of JJ+ and then say it is an arbitrary guess. Then you say AKo is a clear fold because it is only 65% against ATC.

I provided calculations based on stack values indicating AKo is close here. I would be interested if anyone could show what is wrong with my calculations or present alternative calculations. I would be interested in calculations, not arbitrary guesses.

I guess AKo is a fold

Betgo I threw out a range because AKs is a definite fold here.. I won't do calcs because I'll just point out your mistakes because that will take less time. For 1 we have to call 11.5k to win 17.8k.... Your numbers are wrong everywhere else.

Second, you are assuming stack values are static and linear... I don't even have to begin to explain how wrong that is.

I said 11.5K to win 17.8K. I initially, made a mistake about that, but corrected it.

I assumed static and linear stack values for simplicity. The dynamics are you have to fold your way in if you fold and you lose more chips, which is why AKs may be a call. Yes it is probably true that stack values of short stacks are not linear even after the bubble. I am aware that there are other factors, but on balance they tend toward call.

I don't mind calling slightly tighter than $EV on the bubble for psychological and bankroll management reasons though.

Saying I am wrong and throwing out ranges is not convincing. I would like more specific analysis.

To explain it as simply as possible, assuming 10K in chips is worth $150 and a mincash of $350. So the 17.8K we gain is worth about $270. The 11.5K we lose and the mincash are worth about $520. So if we win 2/3 of the time, calling would be slightly $EV+.

I have a better question....I'm yet to figure out which SWU only pays 280 places....


it should be 800+ in the WCOOP...and in that case if we are 3 spots away, bubble should burst in less than 5 hands so we should except to fold out only 3-4k chips on hand. thus mincashing >99% of the time

Grunching

You mentioned that doubling here doesn't really change your status in the tourney and I absolutely disagree with that. You would actually gain some FE here and there and that is massive. It would also put you a hand or two away from being right back in the thick of it.

I just read the responses and my head is about to explode. Wtf why are we playing this tourney in the first place if we are folding in this spot? I understand that math dictates that it is close. But I am seeing stuff ITT like "definite fold", which astounds me. This is our shot right here, fk min cashing. If poker gods wanted us to min cash, we get dealt garbage here.

And in case we want to take our chances of doubling up and nitting it up going forward in case card dead or whatever, let's not forget the value of potentially laddering up a bit further, as minimal as that may be relative to min cashing.

do you coach?