|
|
| High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of high stakes MTT hands and techniques |
07-05-2012, 03:58 PM
|
#16
|
|
Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 24,920
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve Haris
limp entire range here.
#unexploitable
|
This is bad. Why does everyone have to play there entire range the same these days. Usually it is minraise everything and you say limp everything here. Would probably shove AK/JJ, minraise AA/KK, maybe r/f AJ.
Also, my range here is 5-10% of hands.
However, I think limp is the best play with AQ.
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 04:21 PM
|
#17
|
|
Guest
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
Thanks betgo.
Minraising is the equivalent of handing 5k in tournament chips on a silver platter everytime you don't have KK+ vs an ICM aware aggro opponent.
Folding is silly for the times shortstack shoves.
You should only be minraising if your opponents are idiots and we don't have info in OP.
Only one other button left IIRC, haven't played online in a while.
Edit: You can say minraising is optimal if there is a 3b/fold 20bb (ZOMG NO1 DOES THAT ON 2p2) dynamic....but in my experience in online poker there isn't much of that in the 109 turbos...in 109rs ya.....maybe i'm withered/old school. Always best to have fold equity!
Last edited by Steve Haris; 07-05-2012 at 04:27 PM.
|
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 04:56 PM
|
#18
|
|
Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 24,920
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve Haris
Thanks betgo.
Minraising is the equivalent of handing 5k in tournament chips on a silver platter everytime you don't have KK+ vs an ICM aware aggro opponent.
Folding is silly for the times shortstack shoves.
You should only be minraising if your opponents are idiots and we don't have info in OP.
Only one other button left IIRC, haven't played online in a while.
Edit: You can say minraising is optimal if there is a 3b/fold 20bb (ZOMG NO1 DOES THAT ON 2p2) dynamic....but in my experience in online poker there isn't much of that in the 109 turbos...in 109rs ya.....maybe i'm withered/old school. Always best to have fold equity!
|
Then why wouldn't you minraise QQ+ if they are going to shove light? If they aren't shoving that light worried you have QQ+, then minraise/fold other hands.
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 05:11 PM
|
#19
|
|
Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 4,436
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve Haris
limp entire range here.
#unexploitable
|
How is it unexploitable? Not saying it has no merit but ICM aware aggro opponents can jam on limps almost as easily as they can jam on minraises.
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 05:32 PM
|
#20
|
|
Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 24,920
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy Bibbit
How is it unexploitable? Not saying it has no merit but ICM aware aggro opponents can jam on limps almost as easily as they can jam on minraises.
|
It's not unexploitable but there is less for them to steal and you lose less.
Also, if you limp or miniraise AQo and the short stack calls, you can probably call a push, as it is fairly unlikely you finish 4th if you call.
May be OK to just miniraise, as I think the short stack calls often, and they can't reshove that light even if the short stack folds, since you could be trapping.
Short stack can't fold that much as it is sort of unlikely you get pushed on, call, and lose. Plus very profitable for short stack to get allin HU with a lot of dead money.
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 05:48 PM
|
#21
|
|
Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: computers; doing whatever they do
Posts: 6,998
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy Bibbit
How is it unexploitable? Not saying it has no merit but ICM aware aggro opponents can jam on limps almost as easily as they can jam on minraises.
|
I mean, there are definitely some limping ranges you can construct that your opponents can't exploit by jamming pre, it just has to be tight if short stack is folding lots. I'm not sure that it's better than having a jamming range or having an x/folding range if the BB is good. Getting to a flop with a narrow range really sucks when the short stack folds, the BB can apply a lot of pressure on low connected boards.
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 06:11 PM
|
#22
|
|
Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 24,920
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverScaredB
I mean, there are definitely some limping ranges you can construct that your opponents can't exploit by jamming pre, it just has to be tight if short stack is folding lots. I'm not sure that it's better than having a jamming range or having an x/folding range if the BB is good. Getting to a flop with a narrow range really sucks when the short stack folds, the BB can apply a lot of pressure on low connected boards.
|
Yeh, and if you limp, SB could call too, and you are sort of face up. Think about it, limping anything here seems bad.
BB should also be flatting the minraise wide with pot odds, hero face up, and a bigger stack, but most people have been trained you can't flat.
Actually, can anyone show push is bad? Say you get called 10% of the time and you are 36% to win if called. So you bust out 6.5% of the time. Seems like the average chip gain makes up for it. Why let people mess with you?
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 06:38 PM
|
#24
|
|
Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 24,920
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd Terry
|
It has short stack OTB calling 6%, which is way off, although it doesn't matter that much to CO. BTN should call almost ATC as usually gets HU with huge pot odds and is almost anteed off next hand.
Has SB and BB calling 3% JJ+/AK, which is right IMO as push is tight range and they have ICM issues, but they may actually call looser.
Can't see why push isn't best play. Why let them resteal on you or flat and give you trouble when they know pretty much what you have?
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 06:48 PM
|
#25
|
|
Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 16,291
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
What does 6% is "way off" mean? It's a calculated Nash Equilibrium. It's much better for BU to fold most hands if CO shoves because the possibility of CO getting knocked out (which is a jump up to 3rd place for BU) is much higher than BU calling and winning and thereafter being able to do anything meaningful with his stack.
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 06:51 PM
|
#26
|
|
Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 16,291
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
As Billy alluded to earlier, we can't minraise/call if BU folds. If SB jams, we need 67.8% equity vs. his range to break even. If BB jams, it's 65.0%. And we only have 64.5% vs. ATC.
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 07:10 PM
|
#27
|
|
veteran
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Stanford, CA USA
Posts: 3,307
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
I said small stack is 100% because thats what most people would think. To not have 100% and go to say 7% or something for the small stack is the nittiest of all calculations. For those that dont see it yet the folding enters in the small stack's choice because although the stack is tiny and chip ev wise the call anything is super plus (but not money ev), it does nothing significant to change its fate of very rarely coming back to win anything over 4th. That chance is so small even if it were to win here that compares well with the chance that if it were to fold the others would get involved in an all in and kill each other. This is tiny but its comparable with the coming back if you call anything chance since others are like 100-150 times larger stacks. So he folds if he is nitty like that only because of that say 2% chance one is eliminated if he gets out that probably secures for him a 3rd prize with a chance comparable to that of calling with say only a top 5-7% hand.
That said of course you cannot believe how nitty a decision this is here given how small these chances to win anything other than 4th no matter how the others play.
Also the problem with limping to have all others limp too to get to eliminate with higher chance the small stack is its instability. Very often one of the 3 will develop a huge equity post flop that makes no sense to not at least min bet since the chance to eliminate the other guy is significant anyway and each of the other players that usually has poor equity when one of them has big will be unable to call the bet and the silent agreement collapses. The small stack is so small that nomatter how one plays here they are out next few hands over 90-95% of the time so limping 3ways to check to river doesnt seem as appealing eventually.
The reason i dont like anything other than shoving here is because you open the doors to have their errors work against you if they shove light because our hand is not a calling hand if we raise and then face a shove. That raise however may be very light for them. My point is they may play bad icm wise if we raise and this "bad" will never work to out benefit here given how poor AQo is vs anyone that decides to give it action say with 66-TT,AKo even other AQ all hands that would have folded usually. You will start second guessing the situation and fold making their error a good idea for them because we cannot afford to call with just AQo.
Just realize that with pushing you only get called by JJ-AA and rarely also TT,AKs,AKo in that order of plausibility. Since only QQ-AA are the big issue you have like 2 % chance to be eliminated by pushing here. I mean you do not imagine how nitty it gets to claim do something other than raise here. The differences are supertiny. So dont raise and avoid having the errors of others work to their benefit here!!!
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 08:30 PM
|
#28
|
|
old hand
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,619
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
Ingame I'd 13k/decide
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 08:32 PM
|
#29
|
|
Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 24,920
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd Terry
What does 6% is "way off" mean? It's a calculated Nash Equilibrium. It's much better for BU to fold most hands if CO shoves because the possibility of CO getting knocked out (which is a jump up to 3rd place for BU) is much higher than BU calling and winning and thereafter being able to do anything meaningful with his stack.
|
CO is like 7% to bust out if BTN folds. BTN has a little over 1 ante left. He needs to take a favorable gamble to acquire some chips so he can hang around a while and someone will bust. BTN is getting like 6-1 HU. Because it is a calculated Nash Equilibrium doesn't mean it is correct for very small stacks.
|
|
|
07-05-2012, 08:49 PM
|
#30
|
|
adept
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 876
|
Re: A very tough ICM problem from a 100 mtt on Stars
Quote:
Originally Posted by masque de Z
I said small stack is 100% because thats what most people would think. To not have 100% and go to say 7% or something for the small stack is the nittiest of all calculations. For those that dont see it yet the folding enters in the small stack's choice because although the stack is tiny and chip ev wise the call anything is super plus (but not money ev), it does nothing significant to change its fate of very rarely coming back to win anything over 4th. That chance is so small even if it were to win here that compares well with the chance that if it were to fold the others would get involved in an all in and kill each other. This is tiny but its comparable with the coming back if you call anything chance since others are like 100-150 times larger stacks. So he folds if he is nitty like that only because of that say 2% chance one is eliminated if he gets out that probably secures for him a 3rd prize with a chance comparable to that of calling with say only a top 5-7% hand.
That said of course you cannot believe how nitty a decision this is here given how small these chances to win anything other than 4th no matter how the others play.
Also the problem with limping to have all others limp too to get to eliminate with higher chance the small stack is its instability. Very often one of the 3 will develop a huge equity post flop that makes no sense to not at least min bet since the chance to eliminate the other guy is significant anyway and each of the other players that usually has poor equity when one of them has big will be unable to call the bet and the silent agreement collapses. The small stack is so small that nomatter how one plays here they are out next few hands over 90-95% of the time so limping 3ways to check to river doesnt seem as appealing eventually.
The reason i dont like anything other than shoving here is because you open the doors to have their errors work against you if they shove light because our hand is not a calling hand if we raise and then face a shove. That raise however may be very light for them. My point is they may play bad icm wise if we raise and this "bad" will never work to out benefit here given how poor AQo is vs anyone that decides to give it action say with 66-TT,AKo even other AQ all hands that would have folded usually. You will start second guessing the situation and fold making their error a good idea for them because we cannot afford to call with just AQo.
Just realize that with pushing you only get called by JJ-AA and rarely also TT,AKs,AKo in that order of plausibility. Since only QQ-AA are the big issue you have like 2 % chance to be eliminated by pushing here. I mean you do not imagine how nitty it gets to claim do something other than raise here. The differences are supertiny. So dont raise and avoid having the errors of others work to their benefit here!!!
|
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:42 PM.
|