The way I'd play this hand:
PRE: 3bet
-Makes life easier
-Helps us determine villain's range
-If he has KK/AA he will probably inform us and we can fold to a 4bet. I know you probably want to say "but aren't we turning our hand into a bluff" but we are just maximizing value (a lot of it comes from when he flats and folds flop with a similar hand vs him having the initiative and us doing the same). Vs a 4xer I don't think it's a legit concern to expect him to 4bet us off our hand with anything worse. I think if he has JJ he will always flat, the only slightly disastrous scenario imo is if he has QQ and 4bets big and we fold our equity. I don't think that's going to happen very often either and that's the only bad thing that can happen pretty much. It's just the highest EV line to 3bet AND it will also make playing the hand so much easier for us. I'd be much happier to call OTB or from BB.
Flop: Well if I flatted SB here, if I had a flatting range I guess I'd have something like AKs AQs 88-JJ? So with these hands I would check call overpairs (fold if he pots it), fold AQs AKs nonfd/backdoor hands. So I think this combo is still probably a fold? Although closeish. Anyway...
Turn: So we get to the turn with: 88-JJ that you obv don't want to lead. So do we want to construct a leading range that is our two combos of nut flushes and bluff with our four combos of failed backdoor flush draws? I don't think so. And if we get to the turn with all these non bdfd combos of AKs AQs our leading range is extremely bluffheavy. I don't think we should have a leading range if we somehow get to this turn (which we shouldn't in the first place). We have terrible blockers with all our bluffs, basically the hands we would blufflead block the exact hands we are trying to get to fold (see OP's hand).
River: Well if you get there this way, and your car is already in the 7-11, then I say **** it, I'd probably try to **** the prison guard too to get out of jail and bomb the river. In the context of the hand it's like a cherry on top of the cake, it's a bad play but hey, might as well try now that we have buttonclicked ourselves here. But the real lesson isn't in turn/river play DUCY.
The thing is, OP is basically trying to make villain fold an overpair on scary board because V has very few combos that are flush/straight. That is true. But what's even more true is that we have played our hand in an extremely confusing way from villain's perspective, whatever we have is just random btnclicking, and as villain I wouldn't fold a single hand to this line that you're trying to get me to fold. It just reeks of a random bluff attempt and isn't sensible. If I were villain I'd snap call you off here with anything that can beat AQ, expect to be good like 80% of the time, and if I was somehow wrong I'd chuckle and make an angry tweet about live fish owning me.
I will end this post by saying that I spent 3-4 years trying to do the same thing as OP here in live tournaments. I'd attack every capped range, try to push people off overpairs on every scary board where they "can't have it". I can tell from experience that it's a pretty expensive strategy and it's much better to just play good and logical poker.
In Jesse Pinkman voice:
Last edited by Chuck Bass; 08-20-2016 at 11:31 AM.