Hi all,

This hand is from the last ACR Milly when I made a deep run. Then this hand came up with 12 left (5-handed due to a bust-out). I will post the pay-outs & my thoughts below the HH.

HIJ (19.3bb): Raises to 2bb
Stats: VPIP 22, PFR 15, 3B 11, F3B 100

CO (52.2bb): Folds. Stats: VPIP 35, PFR 26, 3B 9, F3B 25

Hero-BTN (16.9bb): w/ 77 ?
Stats: VPIP 19, PFR 15, 3B 7, F3B 67

SB (14.7bb) Stats: VPIP 24, PFR 18, 3B 8, F3B 70

BB (35.9bb) Stats: VPIP 24, PFR 17, 3B 15, F3B 33

FWIW, table seems pretty ICM aware and everyone is BADLY desiring to make the biggest FT of US Poker sites all year (well, twice a year). I perceive this to be bottom of my reshove range along with some suited broadways. Fold equity being key...this is not an easy call even if the guy has TT or JJ due to risk of busting. Stacks on the other table were 50bb, 37bb, 27bb, 20bb, 15bb, and 14bb so I was in about 9/12 left...

Payouts:
1st: $274,000
2nd: $167,000
3rd: $100,000
4th: $78,000
5th: $62,000
6th: $50,000
7th: $39,000
8th: $29,000
9th: $20,000
10th: $11,900
11th: $11,900
12th: $11,900

I'm not an ICM god, but when ran ICMizer myself and it says something ridiculously tight like JJ+ AK+ as a reshove range. Maybe I made a mistake but this surely can't be true because we have decent fold equity and blinding off into oblivion seems terrible for realizing long-term equity with our current stack...'play to win' as they say.

Feedback?

You posted bunch of irrelevant stats. What is his RFI from MP/CO? How has he played in last few orbits?

Yes it's a bit scary to see a minraise off sub20bb stack at this stage. Still doubt I'm not shoving though. PT4 MTT specific autonotes can help with this kind of stuff, they will tell you what kind of range of hands a player has opened off a sub(X) stack, some players are very tight and polar here and that's the range you don't want to be shipping into.

he's been raising here and there, not too wild. pretty much gotten folds pre the whole time. he has not been shoving with this stack size. RFI from MP is 23 and CO is 30 over a 194 hand sample.

I feel like you might have put incorrect inputs into ICMizer. ICM isn't too huge here at 12 players, can't imagine it's not shoving wider than AK/JJ vs hijack range.

It's a pretty easy shove then.
Yeah I also believe you did something wrong in ICMizer.

why can't i win the flip for like 75k in equity

he had AKo...flops the K gg biggest FT ever

I checked with acr they told me you were gonna get aa next hand and double up if you would have folded pre

i wouldnt be surprised if icmizer isnt far off. seems to make sense to play really really tight in this spot.

Wtf is this nonsense

Some dude playing 22/15 opens from HJ and you're on the button with 77 and 17BBs? Seems like a really tough decision

Tbh not an easy decision and is pretty close , table seems to be pretty laggy, esp the big stack/CO, so he could put a lot of pressure.
OR has pretty solid stats (your usual TAG) which I think is gonna be opening pretty tight/polar in this spot( and no, I'm not results oriented)
Also gonna expect V (most players) to open jamm AJ+,KQ, 77+ imo.

OP you need to win flips, in order to win mtt' tho , gg



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yeah but...