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top set vs turn ch/r  first hand on FT top set vs turn ch/r  first hand on FT

10-03-2016 , 05:01 AM
How do you think he perceives hero's turn bet range to opt for smaller turn c/r sizing? (even w/o icm)
Or maybe he hasnt put any thoughts into it at all.
10-03-2016 , 11:12 AM
Is the idea of checking the turn to induce bluffs on the river? That might make sense. I can also see that betting the turn might look too strong, as it would make sense to bet without close to the nuts.

I can't see why we would be worried about being put in a bad place by possible bluffs if we bet this shallow with this hand. If you had bottom set or AA or something I can see checking for pot control.
10-03-2016 , 12:02 PM
lol omg^ betgo its because he has probably 100 combos of 5x in his range and he doesnt ever shove anything less than 5x
hes not taking 2p and just x/shoving it or even bottom set on this turn
10-03-2016 , 12:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lolposting2016
lol omg^ betgo its because he has probably 100 combos of 5x in his range and he doesnt ever shove anything less than 5x
hes not taking 2p and just x/shoving it or even bottom set on this turn
However many combinations of 5x he has, he still doesn't have it that high a percentage of the time. He should be folding some 5s preflop, and there are 12 other card numbers. If you check and he has a straight, he is going to bet large with it on the river and you have to call anyway. You also have redraws against 5x and win 23% of the time.

Since it is hard for you to have a 5, he could c/r as a bluff or with a worse set. Since you are not that likely to bet, he probably often leads with a straight or set. You also want to get value against all the hands you beat. He is much more likely to have those than a straight.
10-03-2016 , 02:53 PM
Your approach to poker is a bit outdated.
10-03-2016 , 05:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by betgo
He is much more likely to have those than a straight.
Nonsense, count all the set combos/two pair he doesn't c/r flop with, add some semi-bluffs (although it is optimistic to think our opponent is even capable of raising turn on a draw here). Now count all the 5x combos he completes his bb with. Last time mtters did not defend 54o versus a min-raise on bb with antes was in 2007. Safe to say he defends ALL suited 5x as well.

Now tell me how is ever more likely to have "those than a straight".
10-03-2016 , 05:54 PM
responding to betgos trash itt is just pointless imo..
(it is entertaining tho)
10-04-2016 , 08:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldBoy/Unemployed
Call fold if we don't boat is the best play with no reada
this

also think we should check back turn for a bunch of reasons.
10-04-2016 , 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad1Lee
Nonsense, count all the set combos/two pair he doesn't c/r flop with, add some semi-bluffs (although it is optimistic to think our opponent is even capable of raising turn on a draw here). Now count all the 5x combos he completes his bb with. Last time mtters did not defend 54o versus a min-raise on bb with antes was in 2007. Safe to say he defends ALL sosuited 5x as well.

Now tell me how is ever more likely to have "those than a straight".
Once he c/rs the turn, particularly that sizing, he probably has a straight. He has a range advantage in that he is more likely to have a straight.

He is still folding more 5s preflop than higher cards. The probability that he is dealt a 5 to begin with is about 14%, and maybe 10% of the hands that see a flop have a 5. So when he c/cs the flop and checks the turn, he has a 5 at most 20% of the time.

It may be OK to check the turn, but we should be more concerned about getting value from the other hands, which he much more likely to have, than worrying about if he has a straight.

So you tell me how his range when he checks the turn is majority straights? That makes no sense at all.
10-05-2016 , 01:15 AM
Obviously, if you know that you are going to get c/red it is an easy check on the turn. Why should I argue with morons who think that most of the BBs range when he checks the turn is straights? That is totally absurd.
10-05-2016 , 01:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by betgo
Once he c/rs the turn, particularly that sizing, he probably has a straight. He has a range advantage in that he is more likely to have a straight.
yes

Quote:
Originally Posted by betgo
He is still folding more 5s preflop than higher cards. The probability that he is dealt a 5 to begin with is about 14%, and maybe 10% of the hands that see a flop have a 5. So when he c/cs the flop and checks the turn, he has a 5 at most 20% of the time.
He is not folding any suited 5 pre from bb. He is however 3betting a decent chunk of higher cards.

The rest of that paragraph is utter nonsense, I can't even

Quote:
Originally Posted by betgo
It may be OK to check the turn, but we should be more concerned about getting value from the other hands, which he much more likely to have, than worrying about if he has a straight.
What hands? On a 4 straight board we are getting one more street of value from unlikely sets and two pairs and some good draws. We won't be valuebetting non-paired rivers, so it's one street and better extract value from very wide range of hands that are both bluffs and value. Plus we are losing chips on less streets in case he has a 5.

Quote:
Originally Posted by betgo
So you tell me how his range when he checks the turn is majority straights? That makes no sense at all.
If he checks his whole range, his range contains fives and other hand in it. Once we bet and he check raises his range is now 5x and some bluffs with equity.

Pretty sure I answered to a troll tho.
10-05-2016 , 02:37 AM
The other poster was trolling saying I said BB didn't have mostly straights when he c/red. I was just trolling back. Obviously, I meant he was much less likely to have a 5 then something else before he c/rs.

Not sure what didn't make sense. The probability of being dealt an ace or 5 or whatever is about 14%. Yes, he calls all suited 5s, which is about 23% of 5s. He still defends significantly less with 5s than high cards. I said 10% of the hands he defends with have 5s. It could be 11% or whatever, but that is close. So straights are not a big part of his range OTT.

Your main objective should be trying to get the most when you are ahead OTT, which is about 85% of the time. If you induce more bluffs by checking, than that may be best.
10-06-2016 , 10:07 PM
If his range for a larger c/r sizing is not significantly weaker than for this sizing, you have to check back. If you can't gii against a larger c/r or a push, then you have to check back.

If you can call a push, you probably gain more by inducing bluffs or larger bluffs than you lose in paying off more against a straight (considering you sometimes beat a straight). However, it could still be a check back depending on which play gives you more profit when you are ahead.
10-10-2016 , 06:39 AM
I see both benefits for betting and checking the turn. However, one thing that no one has mentioned yet is that if our opponent has 3x he could end up shipping it after we bet turn.

Versus an unknown opponent I like checking this turn because they usually end up folding here a lot and you can get some great action on good rivers.

If we know opponent is a wild recreational then betting turn is better.

If opponent plays against me a lot then I like betting turn.

Opponent has stats of a typical reg though. Typical reg folds here plenty.
10-12-2016 , 12:53 AM
If you have no clue what to do when getting raised on this turn then just check call would be the safest bet. I check here a lot and let villain value town himself a lot with two pairs.

Or if he checks back it is easier to play the river.
10-13-2016 , 08:07 AM
Would x back the turn with my range here I think, because we have such an alarming range disadvantage because of our lack of straights. We don't want to deal with betting overpairs or really even bluffs here so vs a reg I think we do best by just always playing rivers. Even when we have a weak fd we would like to x back turn and realize equity because he can do this a fair ammount

As played I call turn and would likely call non-club rivers even if the board doesn't pair. In his shoes, when he has a fd he might lead turn some but he will also not expect you to bet this turn very often if at all for reasons mentioned so he could check his flushdraws a lot, resulting in him realizing free equity a bunch and being able to bluff rivers (targetting a weaker portion of your range to fold w normal sizing, or overbet with the intention to get as much of your capped range to fold as possible). In this scenario, where you unexpectedly do bet the turn, he might just say 'fu, i have many str8' and raise those flushdraws. Seems ambitious for him to bluff blank rivers giving excellent odds but at that point I'm stationing the non-clubs I think
10-13-2016 , 11:59 AM
Obvious villain perceives this board hitting his range much more than hero's range, so I do see him perhaps exploiting that advantage with some bluffs or semi bluffs. With that being said I still check the turn here as there are many combos that beat you and getting x/r is just awful as you know. Try to realize your full equity OTR because if you do fill up and he does have 5x you're going to get the chips anyhow

      
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