Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad1Lee
Nonsense, count all the set combos/two pair he doesn't c/r flop with, add some semi-bluffs (although it is optimistic to think our opponent is even capable of raising turn on a draw here). Now count all the 5x combos he completes his bb with. Last time mtters did not defend 54o versus a min-raise on bb with antes was in 2007. Safe to say he defends ALL sosuited 5x as well.
Now tell me how is ever more likely to have "those than a straight".
Once he c/rs the turn, particularly that sizing, he probably has a straight. He has a range advantage in that he is more likely to have a straight.
He is still folding more 5s preflop than higher cards. The probability that he is dealt a 5 to begin with is about 14%, and maybe 10% of the hands that see a flop have a 5. So when he c/cs the flop and checks the turn, he has a 5 at most 20% of the time.
It may be OK to check the turn, but we should be more concerned about getting value from the other hands, which he much more likely to have, than worrying about if he has a straight.
So you tell me how his range when he checks the turn is majority straights? That makes no sense at all.