Bubble at Super Tuesday (Just 1 player before the money).
I doubled up recently (7/8 players before the money) reshoving 12BB with A4s in SB vs a BU who was a big stack and opening probably with 70% or more. Besides, I was playing v tight as typical in the push/fold mode close to the bubble.
Villain is a well known reg who was starting to open his game as the bubble approached and his stack grew.
I think he has to put me on a v tight range here, bearing in mind that I am v. vulnerable to 3 bets giving my stack size. Then, when he shoves the turn I really wonder how many hands that beat my JJ are there.
AK/QQ would have probably reraised, AA is a chance, I am not sure about KQ but don't think that would be a good flat for him so I tend to discard.
Then, I also wonder if he would shove the turn with 88/TT, trying to make me fold a better pair (QQ/TT).
- if everyone folds, pick up 2k
- if we get called by TT, 99, 88, 77, we are in a great double up spot
- if we get called by overcards, we are a slight favorite to double up
- if we get called by better, its a cooler
You can bet less such a dry texture on this flop, we shouldn't get floated too often by MP2 because he still has the BB to act. Think c/f turn is fine.
to me it just doesn't seem like he's betting for value with that line unless he's turned something really sick . You've checked there seemingly weak and afraid of the K and then he moves in on you , ideally i'd say he's got loads of hands in his range which he semi-bluffs this spot to get a fold from you . You are'nt entirely sure how wide he flats as well and i do think its possible he jams the turn with some semi draw/pair hands like 45s etc . Its very much dependent on how he's been playing his big hands so far , but in this spot i really dont think hes value betting something big . Either way , i'd prefer to just jam it pre .
forgot to add that when you 2x you do get called much wider
- if everyone folds, pick up 2k
- if we get called by TT, 99, 88, 77, we are in a great double up spot
- if we get called by overcards, we are a slight favorite to double up
- if we get called by better, its a cooler
- if everyone folds, pick up 2k
- if we get called by TT, 99, 88, 77, we are in a great double up spot
- if we get called by overcards, we are a slight favorite to double up
- if we get called by better, its a cooler
[x] profitable
[ ] optimal
I wouldnt take much or any premiums out of his pf calling range with stacks the way they are.
- if everyone folds, pick up 2k
- if we get called by TT, 99, 88, 77, we are in a great double up spot
- if we get called by overcards, we are a slight favorite to double up
- if we get called by better, its a cooler
please don't do that. check/fold is probally good on the turn. he isn't floating here often enough to put him on a bluff.
Two Plus Two
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